Soooo many outs. Who plays this differently?

jedi · #1 06-09-2004, 02:18 AM

First off, my pre-flop call might be a bit sketchy. Once I pick up monster draw on the flop though, I'm jamming this pot. Unfortunately I get hosed on the end. Anyone fold thsi river for 1 bet?

Ultimate Bet 2/4 Omaha/8 (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Jedi is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Jedi calls, 1 fold, MP3 (poster) checks, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks,

Flop: (7 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Jedi raises, MP3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Jedi calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Jedi calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (24.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, Jedi calls, SB raises, BB folds, UTG calls, Jedi calls.

Final Pot: 30.50 BB

Results in white below: 
SB shows 2c Jh 5s 4h (Low: 6, 4, 3, 2, A | High: high card, ace).
UTG shows Qd Qh Ad 4s (High: three of a kind, queens).
Jedi shows 8c 7c 3c 2d (Low: 7, 6, 3, 2, A | High: one pair, threes).
Outcome: UTG wins 15.25 BB. SB wins 15.25 BB.

chaos · #2 06-09-2004, 08:36 AM

I would fold on the river.

Your nut low draw got counterfeited. The SB and BB called three big bets on the turn. I would expect one of them or the UTG player to have a reasonable low. Your 2-7 is not even close to the nuts. I would save my money.

BlueBear · #3 06-09-2004, 09:22 AM

I might be totally off here but i doubt with so many players left in the pot,

1) the risk of getting quartered is possibly there
2) club flush draw may is a non-nut draw, very high probability that someone has a better flush draw

On light of these two factors, I doubt you're getting the required odds to cold call the raise on the turn, don't forget when you cold call immediately after the raise, due to a lack of position, there is always a risk of running into the the 3rd/4th raise and having to call it if the turn is reraised.

Looks like both an easy turn AND river fold to me.

jedi · #4 06-09-2004, 09:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I might be totally off here but i doubt with so many players left in the pot,

1) the risk of getting quartered is possibly there
2) club flush draw may is a non-nut draw, very high probability that someone has a better flush draw

On light of these two factors, I doubt you're getting the required odds to cold call the raise on the turn, don't forget when you cold call immediately after the raise, due to a lack of position, there is always a risk of running into the the 3rd/4th raise and having to call it if the turn is reraised.

Looks like both an easy turn AND river fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, given that the river fold SHOULD have been a no-brainer to me, I'd like to revisit the flop and turn.

Was the flop raise okay? I'm on a rainbow flop with an open ended straight draw and a nut low draw. The 5 makes a good straight for me and the nut low, while the ten makes the river card very dangerous to higher straights. Do I raise the flop?

On the turn, I pick up a crap flush draw, and now my ten for a straight is basically no good because of the KJ threat. (and KQJT is something that's likely played here anyways). I really only have low outs at this point, but with many people in the pot, I shouldn't be cold-calling here, even for just the size of the pot? There is the possiblity that I'm quartered, but there's still an outside shot at scooping with a non-club 5, right? Is that too much of a longshot?

I'm still trying to figure when it's okay to draw to these types of hands and when it isn't.

-Jedi

tiltboy · #5 06-09-2004, 01:40 PM

Do you mind posting the SB's nick? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

iblucky4u2 · #6 06-10-2004, 10:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First off, my pre-flop call might be a bit sketchy

[/ QUOTE ]
What an understatement! This hand is absolute ca-ca-doo-doo . You are out of position, need an A to flop for any chance at low - for which you have no backup, and have no real shot at high.

Even with a favorable flop you threw more money away, only to get screwed for low on the river. The O/8 gods have a sense of justice when good players play bad hands.

If you consider yourself a bad player, then play this crap and donate to the other players. Since you are a regular poster on 2+2, I would say you are definately above average in your knowledge. You need the discipline to apply that knowledge to your play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Joe Tall · #7 06-10-2004, 10:27 AM

I am new to this but I dont' think that is an MP limping hand.

I think you have a clear river fold, especially after all that turn action.

Peace,
Joe Tall

iblucky4u2 · #8 06-10-2004, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Was the flop raise okay? I'm on a rainbow flop with an open ended straight draw and a nut low draw. The 5 makes a good straight for me and the nut low, while the ten makes the river card very dangerous to higher straights. Do I raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a good flop raise. Your low draw has no backup and, as you say, if the T hits, you are very vulnerable to higher str8s & other problems - full houses, runner runner flushes etc.

[ QUOTE ]
On the turn, I pick up a crap flush draw, and now my ten for a straight is basically no good because of the KJ threat. (and KQJT is something that's likely played here anyways). I really only have low outs at this point, but with many people in the pot, I shouldn't be cold-calling here, even for just the size of the pot? There is the possiblity that I'm quartered, but there's still an outside shot at scooping with a non-club 5, right? Is that too much of a longshot?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are asking is a one-outer is too much of a longshot. Didn't your daddy ever teach you not to draw to inside str8s? That is what your are in effect doing here.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still trying to figure when it's okay to draw to these types of hands and when it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

This type of hand shows why you should only play starting hands that have all cards working together. Say you had 2345 - now your low cannot be counterfitted and your odds are improved to the point where you can consider calling the raise on the turn.

When you play starting hands where all four cards work together you will have clearer choices and better odds to draw to the nuts - both high and/or low. Improve your selection of starting hands and you will improve your results. It's that simple.

Buzz · #9 06-10-2004, 06:20 PM

Jedi -
Betting round #1: Not a very good starting hand. Honest! You’re not going to end up with the nuts or a nut draw for a scooper very often after the flop.

Your best chance with this hand is to end up winning for low - and you won't usually do that.

Between either flopping the nut low, 976/17296, and flopping a draw to the nut low, 1644/17296, you’ll be able to continue for low 2620/17296 = 0.1515 or about one hand out of six or seven (odds of about 5.6 to 1 against). Of course, you can continue without the nut low, but that often comes back to bite you on the third betting round - and then again on the fourth betting round.

If you do catch an ace on the flop, plus one or two low cards, not including a deuce or trey, you have no counterfeit protection.

While you can play a starting hand with an ace-deuce plus seven-eight, deuce-trey needs more than just seven-eight to go with it. Deuce-trey needs -A-A, -K-K, or a minimum of -Q-Q, -A-X, or -4-X (and maybe also -5-X from the button or small blind if you're a very good player). Where there is an X, the X should fit with something and not "dangle." All of these hands have to be at least single suited, and some of them should be double suited. Keep in mind that 2-3-4-5-d is not a very good starting hand in Omaha-8, usually playable but not very good. Bottom line: 2-3-7-8 is unplayable as a starting hand, even if double-suited, from early or mid position.

Betting round #2: You have caught a good flop - not great, but good. You’d really like to see the five of hearts or clubs on the turn. The other fives are not as good, because they open up flush possibilities for an opponent. Fours are also good for you, making low and preserving your open ended straight draw. Sevens and eights, another six cards, make low for you, but probably ruin your chances for a scooper. Any ten will temporarily give you the nut straight, but it’s a very vulnerable nut straight. In all, only fourteen cards on the turn are good for you, another four (the tens) are neutral, and the other twenty six cards are ugly. It’s about two to one you won’t like the turn much.

You raise. Okay - gets you last position, and at some tables might buy you a free card on the next betting round. Now there are 19 small bets in the pot.

Betting round #3: Ugly turn card for you. Now three cards, 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] will scoop or 3/4 for you. 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] at least get you low and might scoop. Another nine cards get you at least a share of low, Four high clubs possibly scoop for you, and the deuce of clubs possibly gets you the high with your back-door club flush. With three clubs in your hand, it’s a bit less likely for an opponent to have a better club draw than you after the turn. But the other 25 cards are pure ugliness.

Hard to figure your hand odds. It’s not 25 to 19 against you, because some of your 19 cards aren’t worth as much as the non-club fives. 3+2*.5+9*.4+4*.3+1*.2 = 3+1+3.6+1.2+.2 = 9. How about 25 to 9 against you, figured for the whole pot. In other words, 9 scoop equivalent outs making your hands odds about 2.8 to 1 against you - something like that.

Meanwhile, here comes a double big bet headed your way. With implied pot odds, you’re getting eight or nine to one - something like that. You have to think that’s the end of the raises because no low hand is made yet and no straight or better is made yet. (Shows you how much I know - as it turns out UTG makes it three bets). At any rate, even if you could foresee the re-raise from UTG coming, I think you have favorable odds to call - easily.

Betting round #4: You missed your draw on the river. Tenacity is good often enough to make it worth while when you have what you think is a winning hand and then a better hand becomes enabled by the river. But you never did have more than a draw. And you missed. 4-2, 5-2, and 5-4 all beat you and 7-2 ties.

You have a very clear fold on the river.

Where you went wrong, if you did go wrong (I haven’t looked at your results), was on betting round #1 (getting involved to begin with) and betting round #4 (calling after you missed your draw).

Otherwise, the nature of Omaha-8 is that it is a drawing game, very dependent on the river card. You try to give yourself the best odds all the way - but then if the river card does not help you and helps someone else instead, well... that's part of the game. Happens to us all.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

jedi · #10 06-10-2004, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The O/8 gods have a sense of justice when good players play bad hands.

If you consider yourself a bad player, then play this crap and donate to the other players. Since you are a regular poster on 2+2, I would say you are definately above average in your knowledge. You need the discipline to apply that knowledge to your play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm working on that whole good player/bad player thing still. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

But, I do like the last line. I think I'm lacking discipline to play at my best all the time. In this instance, it's likely I was bored and watching other crap hands take down good pots. That is a huge leak in my hold em game as well, so I'll keep trying to remember it.