push/call turn decision

[cornell2005]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed)

Hero ($100.10)
Button ($87.45)
SB ($99.90)
BB ($48)
UTG ($150.40)
UTG+1 ($101.75)
UTG+2 ($148.55)
MP1 ($165.20)
MP2 ($106.15)
MP3 ($94)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $7, Button folds, SB raises to $12, BB folds, Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($26) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
SB bets $10, Hero raises to $25, SB calls $15.

Turn: ($76) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
SB bets $20, Hero calls $20.

River: ($116) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
SB bets $42.9 (All-In), Hero calls $42.90.

Final Pot: $201.80

notes: who here pushes on the turn and who just calls? seems to me like stacks were just too short for a push. in the end, i called because i figured his flop call showed me he doesnt want to lay down a bit pair here. how much larger do the stack sizes have to be for a push to be more +EV? my guess is 20 dollars larger and pushing would be more +EV. isagreements? assume he is a thoughtful player and its at a 200 instead of a 100 if that helps.

[george w of poker]

i would have just called his flop bet representing a queen. once you raise and he raises you all in you have to fold, yes?

the turn i would just call because he obviously has a hand and the money will go in on the river if you hit and you can save it if you don't.

[cornell2005]

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i would have just called his flop bet representing a queen. once you raise and he raises you all in you have to fold, yes?


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yes i have to fold if i now dont have drawing odds. but the chance he has a Q is pretty small and the chances he raises so i dont have odds is also small, so im not really considering the ramifications of raising and losign my chance to draw too much

i think calling the flop representing a queen then trying to steal on the turn usually wont work as well as raising for two reasons.

first, sometimes you have to hit these players over the head with obviousness when bluffing. by the time the turn comes around, he can justify (evein if incorrectly) calling alot of hands he wouldnt call if i just raised the flop. alot of these players think in the here and now and dont think back enough.

second, theres theres a larger money in the pot to money behind radio if i just call the turn and try to bluff from there, so odds are more in his favor to call then on the flop. theres less threat the longer i want to bluff, plus it takes so much more moeny for me to bluff if i wait, because the pot will be so much larger for me on the turn.


"the turn i would just call because he obviously has a hand and the money will go in on the river if you hit and you can save it if you don't."

i kinda disagree with this too, though we reached the same conclusion. its a fairly safe assumption he has high pockets mor ethen 75 percent of the time here, so its not really a factor of whether he has a hand or not. its trying to figure out if 1. hes smart enough to lay down to represented trips and 2. if he feels pot committed by the turn and would call no matter what. in concluded either 1 or 2 held here so i called. but im not sure thats the case if the stacks were a little deeper

tell me if you disagree

[george w of poker]

1) i don't think you are representing trips because you raised the flop. so he won't lay down to that even if he's smart enough to
2) he's definitely pot committed by the turn and has little reason to lay down if you push because he probably thinks he has the best hand. with his aa, kk.

i think he is definitely going to call on the turn if you push and most likely on the river if you hit. so, i think pushing the turn is a huge mistake.

[george w of poker]

i do agree with you on the hitting them over the head when bluffing. you can generally only bluff weak players and good players. and lags to some extent.

[AZK]

If the flop hadn't paired, does anyone push on the flop with a 4 flush? Probably random question at first I was thinking push, but then realized if he has a Q he'll call and hope for 1 of his 10 outs...is my thinking flawed?

[cornell2005]

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1) i don't think you are representing trips because you raised the flop.

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agree, if i said it this way didnt mean to, only one possible hand i could be raising with. (maybe your getting at the opinion that "representing" trips would entail calling the flop and raising the turn. but i dont think that slowplaying, even as common a slowplaying a sitiatuion as this is, can be considered "representing." plus, theres no point in mimicing a slowplayed set as it wont have any bluff value on the turn anyways, but i think we agree here.

[ QUOTE ]
I think he is definitely going to call on the turn if you push and most likely on the river if you hit. so, i think pushing the turn is a huge mistake.

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yep my belief also. but only because the stack sizes are too small. against a normal good player pushing the turn might be more +EV than calling