Bellagio 15-30 - betting the draw

Abe · #1 06-01-2004, 11:51 AM

WSOP weekend at the "B". Games are hot and the room is crowded.

I enter a game posting behind the button and fold the first 7 hands around to my big blind. Nothing unusual is happening. No immediately apparent goofs or maniacs at this table. About 1/2 of the hands are raised pre-flop. The guy to my right loses a pot and now has a small number of chips in front of him for his small blind hand.

I pick up Js Ts in the big blind. One middle limper and the small blind completes. I check.

Flop of Qs 5s and a red 4. Small blind checks, I bet out, the limper twitches and calls, and the small blind calls.

Turn of 9c. Small blind checks. I bet out.

Two friends who's opinion I respect tell me this is a terrible bet. I sure disagree. The 9 gives me another 6 outs and I have encountered no resistance or strength in the other (only 2) in this hand. I think there is a good chance to win the hand with the turn bet - but I thought that of the flop bet too.

What do they have? I don't know, but its probably not much. Limper could have A J or 7 7? Small blind on A 5?

As for pot odds, I'm betting 30 into a pot of 90 with outs of 15/46 assuming any spade wins. My friends think I should check and give myself the free card or just call if the limper now bets the turn.

What do you think? Am I missing some other factors to consider there? Bet the draw or check?

MrGo · #2 06-01-2004, 12:38 PM

You're betting the draw in the first place. Why check the turn when you get 6 more out to make your hand? If the pot was multiway, I'd be inclined to check/call here die to positioning. I'd bet and bet on the river as well. If raised, call then fold if you miss, obviously.

Nightwish · #3 06-01-2004, 07:35 PM

You shouldn't be looking at pot odds when determining whether to bet. Pot odds only matter when determining whether to call.

ALL1N · #4 06-01-2004, 09:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't be looking at pot odds when determining whether to bet. Pot odds only matter when determining whether to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree.

The size of the pot relative to your bet, the probabilities of your opponents actions and the chances of your hand winning given the various actions are the 3 determinants of profitability when betting.

And yes, Abe, easy turn bet.

Gabe · #5 06-01-2004, 09:13 PM

"You shouldn't be looking at pot odds when determining whether to bet. Pot odds only matter when determining whether to call."

Not true.

Nightwish · #6 06-01-2004, 09:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't be looking at pot odds when determining whether to bet. Pot odds only matter when determining whether to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know it's tacky to reply to one's own post, but here's what I meant to say. When you're betting on a draw, bluff, or some other hand that you think won't win if your opponent calls you, you're not looking at the odds that the pot is presenting to you. You're looking at the odds that the pot is presenting to your opponent. That is, you're looking at the probability that he will call your bet, given the size of the pot.

Yeknom58 · #7 06-01-2004, 07:41 PM

I'm willing to bet your J/T outs are probably good also..bet the turn.

Clarkmeister · #8 06-01-2004, 08:58 PM

Easy turn bet.

Gabe · #9 06-01-2004, 09:15 PM

Bet the turn. If they call you may very well have 21 outs.

Abe · #10 06-01-2004, 09:26 PM

So, I bet out on the turn.

Original limper now raises and the small blind cold calls all in for his last 12 chips. grrr I call the raise of $30. Well, I guess they got something after all. My outs are still good unless sb has a higher flush draw.

River is a complete brick for me. I check, limper bets and I fold.

Limper shows A A. Small blind shows 5 4 - and takes the pot. Two unusual lines of play by them. I almost ask them; "Do you play on Party Poker?"