SERIOUS PLAYERS READ THIS POST (also posted in poker theory forum)

[deacsoft]

I am hoping to get some feedback on a theory of mine. This theory is aimed at serious players who would like to learn as much as they can about poker. It is also a must that the player does play or does intend to play in live games (casino, cardroom, home games). What I'm looking for are any players who have tried this and their experiences, or any general feedback for those who have thoughts on the post. My theory is this...

Every year the insurance industry pays out millions of dollars in fraudulant claims. That's right, I said pays out. Why would they do this? Because they can't prove the claim is fraudulant. Then how do they know it is? They know because they employ the greatest human lie detectors on the planet. Thse amazing lie detectors are called claims investigators.

For those of you who don't know, claims investigators are well trained insurance agents that's sole purpose is to confirm or deny the validity of an insurance claim. Some are also allowed to make the decesion to accept or reject the claim, and others yet can decide on the dollar amount of the claim to be paid out. A rather large responsibility.

They are given this responsibility because they are trained to handle it. They take classes that teach them to look for "tells". Unless there is some other overwhelming evidence to support otherwise, these agents rely upon their lie detection skills to determine if any further investigation is required. They use gestures, body language, hand positioning, body positioning, tone of voice, rate of speaking, eye movement, head movement, how a person reacts to different questions/situations, etc, etc just like we do in poker. The only difference being that in poker we are given the unique oppertunity to prove it every hand if we so choose.

In insurance if they can tell that someone is making a fraudulant claim but can find no evidence outside of their keen lie detection skills to prove it the claim is paid out. In poker no one ever has to be paid off. If you so choose you can put your skills to the test and call the bluff or raise the bluff. You have an oppertunity to know every time if your lie detection skills are accurate. Aside from sitting down with Mike Caro, I can't see a better way to learn tells than to take the smae training/classes claims investigators do.

I am seriously considering taking the $300-$400 insurance claims investigation class for the sole purpose of applying what I learn to poker. The insurance industry is the fastest growing industry in the country. Their profit margine largely depends on the number of claims they pay out. The number of claims they pay out largely depends on the findings of the claims investigator. The findings of the claims investigator largely depends on his/her lie detection skills. Insurance agancies trust these people with decesions involving millions of dollars. These classes must be worth the $300-$400. I believe they will pay for themselves many time over. Just as they do for the insurance agancies.

[deacsoft]

Your votes and any written thoughts/coments are, as always, appreciated.

[StellarWind]

Well, it's an original idea.

It would be interesting to hear from an industry insider if that is the way it really works.

I'm going to guess that a $400 class will not provide that much insight into tells. How long will it last? I suspect that too much time will be devoted to ideas like "run credit checks on the owners after a suspicious business fire", "investigate back pain but payoff immediately on fractures", and "be wary of repeat claims".

In other words, I suspect they catch cheats the same way I catch bluffs: by considering the circumstances of the bet and the track record of the better.

I'd like to hear about your experience if you do it.

[Jezebel]

The best dealing I've had with an adjuster is when the mast on my sailboat snapped off during a storm. We had to clear the mast and rigging off of the boat just to get it back in to shore.

When the adjuster came out to the boat, he hopped up on my deck in cowboy boots took a look around the boat and said, "I don't see anything wrong with this boat". I replied while pointing to the sailboat next to it, "See that big stick coming out of the middle? It's supposed to have one of those."

I'm sure their training classes are very detailed [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[deacsoft]

One idiot shouldn't be able to spoil it for everyone else. I have to think that a dedicated and intelligent person should be able to gain much from a class like this.

That's a very funny story though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[deacsoft]

I did spend a few hours talking with a claims investigator about how he spots liars. It just amazed me how closely it could relate to poker. He said it had less to do with how they answered his question but more with body language and gestures. Even subconcious actions are taken into account. He didn't get in to what makes it a lie and what makes it truth. He talked about how when someone is leaning back in their chair it can be taken as a signal of strength or believability. When someone is leaning forward that can be taken as a sign of weakness because they tend to want you to believe them or they are worried about the action taking place. I have read and own a copy of Caro's Book of Poker Tells. You can find similar analogies in that book. He went on to talk in some detail about how head movements can tell a lot about strength and weakness. It was extremely interesting. I see connections everywhere within it.

I will look in to it more and (prices, locals, specific topics covered, class length, etc) post any information I find if you are interested.

Still looking forward to hearing what you all think.

[eric5148]

I have a video called Expert Body Language, produced by Paladin Press. It's basically what you're talking about: how to read peoples motions and tones of voice.

Paladin Press

[J.R.]

"Their profit margin largely depends on the number of claims they pay out."

There's also this neat little idea called "insurance bad faith" and its cool "treble damages" feature that mitigates your thesis. Most of an insurance companies profits come from the investment of premiums, and the size of the premiums is based upon an accurate forecasting of risk. Its not a "don't pay claims out game", as that angle kills customer trust and gets you in legal trouble. Insurance fraud is an issue, but it is already paid for as its a cost of business factoered into the cost of premiums.

[deacsoft]

Most likely put the wrong words in that sentence. So, I surely see where you are coming from. I am fully aware of what you're saying. But does the amount of claims paid out effect their profit margine? Surely you must realize that if two companies offer the same rates and have the same number clients (everything is equal) the one that pays out more claims will show a smaller profit. Every claim they do not have to pay out is profit (or money saved) at the end of the year.

What I should be saying is... Don't focus on the wrong part of the story. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[J.R.]

I know, I am just giving you a hard time. This is an interesting idea, but not sure if its enough time and will be all that relevant. Perhaps you can learn something in one class, but I'm not sure who well conversational body langauge "tells" translate to poker tells, as people typically try to remain stoic at the poker table and aren't usually talking while you stare them down to get a read.