The Value of Being Conservative Late in a NL Tournament

[Sandwich]

Last night I was playing the PP Freeroll tourney and was actually largest stack for awhile. At about 65 players left (15 before the money), I noticed people at my table becoming VERY tight and conservative, which allowed me to steal lots of blinds from those fearful of spending the last 4+ hours without at least a $50 return.

After we were down to 50 players (all in the money), I noticed that things became A LOT looser, and therefore, I tightened up considerably.... the next money jump was at 25th place ($60 instead of $50) so I thought as we got closer to that it would provide me another opportunity to steal some more blinds, etc. Very quickly I wasn't large stack anymore.... in fact, I was mid-to-low stack at the table as we were nearing 25 left (I had something like T65000).

I was dealt J9s in the BB, everyone folded to the SB (T40000) who minimum raised to T16000. I thought he was trying to steal my blind, as he had made similar moves a few minutes before. So, I called the raise. Flop comes J 2 8 rainbow (one of my suit). SB checks. I bet T32000. After all, flopping top pair heads up is great, right? SB thinks about it, and calls. Turn is a 4, no flush possibility. SB goes all in. At this point I've got to call, and SB shows me J2o for two pairs. The river doesn't help and I'm down to T25000.

So instead of being conservative and sliding into the final table, I end up losing a lot of chips on a blind defense situation, and I end up going out just before the final table with only a $60 win. Not that I'm complaining, but considering the commanding chip position I had just moments before, I am kicking myself for this apparent leak in my game. (going too far stealing and defending blinds).

What should I have done differently? What should I be thinking about that late in a tourney regarding blind defense and stealing. I had built up my stack pretty well stealing blinds right before the $50 money -- it didn't work so well at the $60 bubble.

Advice?

[freemont]

I think your main problem was assuming there would be a second bubble as the money went up again. Really in my experience there is only one bubble at the money where people figure "I've played this long/well, it would be a shame to come away with nothing now." After that is over most people are ready and willing to gamble, and not too worried about slight differences in money (especially 10$)

Also as much as it may pain you to allow the small blind to steal your big blind, j9s is not the hand to be defending it with. I know I too hate it when they do this, but you really have to just allow it to go on and hope that they attempt their steal when you have a real hand to punish them with. A good rule of thumb I've come up with is to look at my cards and think, "I've played a good tournament so far, do I really want to go broke on XX?" If the answer is no toss them in the muck and wait for a better chance...

[Tony Corbett]

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I think your main problem was assuming there would be a second bubble as the money went up again. Really in my experience there is only one bubble at the money where people figure "I've played this long/well, it would be a shame to come away with nothing now." After that is over most people are ready and willing to gamble, and not too worried about slight differences in money (especially 10$)


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I tend to find that there are two bubbles in the bigger tourneys, one for in the money and another one for a seat at the final table. Only the really short stacks try to eek out a few extra bucks trying to survive to the next jump in money in between these two cut off points.

[Bubbagump]

[ QUOTE ]
A good rule of thumb I've come up with is to look at my cards and think, "I've played a good tournament so far, do I really want to go broke on XX?" If the answer is no toss them in the muck and wait for a better chance...

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I completely with every thing you said and when it gets down to the nitty gritty in a tournament, I find myself aksing the same question. But the problem I have is when you get a free play in the the big blind with a hand like J9 and catch top pair. I estimate that about half the tournaments I've played, I got busted seeing a free flop on my bb.

Very frusterating.

Bubbagump

[fnurt]

Sometimes the cards just put you in a trap situation. Flopping top pair when someone else has two pair is a classic case, and it could just as well happen with A2 vs AK. For that matter, you could have KK in the big blind and the small blind could have AA.

Towards the end of a tournament, when the blinds are big, there's just no way to get away from these situations. If you had reason to put the SB on a steal then I have absolutely no problem with calling a minimum raise with J9s.

I'm not quite following the stack sizes here (SB starts with T40000, but he has enough to raise to T16000 preflop, and to call your T32000 bet on the flop, and still has money left to bet the turn). My only comment is that, if the stack sizes at all allow it, it would be nice to make a flop bet that allows you to get away from the hand. While top pair is nice, I'd still lay your hand down to an all-in check-raise (or, as in the actual hand, a stop-and-go); but that's only if I wasn't pot-committed in the first place. If there was an amount you could have bet that would have been substantial enough to mean business, but would have still allowed you to fold if he went all-in, I think it would have been the better option. I don't know if you had this choice though.

[Fitz]

Wasn't it Doyle Brunson who said, "Never go broke in an unraised pot."?

Good luck,

Fitz

[TomCollins]

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Wasn't it Doyle Brunson who said, "Never go broke in an unraised pot."?

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I think this quote refers to a game where players have more than 8 big blinds. That situation was impossible to prevent. The only other move I might suggest is to reraise all in preflop against a blind steal. It will serve 2 purposes. 1) It will prevent garabage hands from getting lucky and will win you a sizeable pot. 2) It will make others less hesitant to steal you blinds in the future if you do not bust here.