I really hope a legitimate player wins the WSOP

[Patrick del Poker Grande]

With the stories flying around (who knows which ones are even true?) about all these pros getting sucked out and busting out of the tournament by some jackass calling an all-in bet with nothing and then rivering, I started to worry about what might happen to the WSOP if things like this become too commonplace. I hope the tourney's not getting too big for its britches. If it ends up being a place where there are so many fish that'll suck you out that even the best of the best can't beat them all, I wonder if the pros will start playing elsewhere and the tournament will lose its legitimacy. For the moment, the money is just too much to pass up, but that may change in the future if the WSOP gets to be just too ridiculous. ESPN's coverage and Moneymaker's win may have been the biggest boon yet to the WSOP and poker in general, but I wonder where it's going.

I realize this is all a bunch of Chicken Little BS right now, but it's still something to think about (but not too hard).

[Dynasty]

If you think that a large number of weak players entering the WSOP will make the pros go away, you just don't understand how a pro thinks.

[Toonces]

Absolutely. No pro poker player in their right mind would give up equity like this unless they just didn't want to play 7 days of poker for the biggest title in the country. Of course, it's pretty unlikely that one of the top 50 pros in the country will win the tournament. However, I'd be willing to bet that 5 of the top 50 finish in the money and I expect to see at least one of the top 50 pros in the country at the final table. The final table alone has an EV of $1.8 million. The EV of finishing in the money (if you don't make the final table) is $37,000. That means that (if my assumptions are right) that even though 90% of the pros won't even place, a top 50 pro has a 8% chance at $37,000 and a 2% chance at $1.8 million dollars. That's a total EV of $36,000 for a $10,000 buy-in, and no pro's going to give up $26,000 in equity for a weeks work.

[Sly_Grin]

First of all, what is your definition of a "legitimate player" ? Lemme guess, it's someone you've seen on TV. Well guess how most of the field got there ? By winning their way in, often defeating hundreds of even of thousands of other players. There are people playing online who play more hands in a month than top pro players see in a year. With "sit and go's" players get massive experience playing short handed. Everyone has been brainwashed by "Rounders" into thinking poker is 95% tells and that is simply not true.

There are also "pros" who don't even make a good living. They play the tour, putting up literally hundreds of thousands in entry fees, you see them make a WPT final table and assume they are getting rich.

There are also other pros that stick to the cash games so you've never heard of them. TV has the general public thinking Annie Duke is the Queen of poker while someone like Cyndy Violette is miles beyond her as a player (and a fox, too !).

And you are talking about a $10k buy-in tournament !! Do you really think most of the field is fish ? don't be ridiculous.

Lastly, the thought that a professional would NOT want to play in a tournament because too many people make bad calls is about the dumbest thing I've read here.

[Syntax]

Could you elaborate on your EV calculations?

[Toonces]

Final table is just dividing the total money available at the final table by 9 people.

The other EV is dividing the remaining purse by 216 (225 moneywinners - 9 final table people)

[Freudian]

Whoever wins it is a legitimate player. Lasting 6 days in a field with pretty much every 'legitimate' player in the world should prove so.

[Syntax]

You do realize that EV and average are two different concepts? For each player to have the same EV at the final table, they would all have to be equal in skill and equally stacked.

[Michael Davis]

I think this is a really low estimate. This puts them on par with all players at large.

-Michael

[Daithi]

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