OK, help with probability please

[DoctorDrew]

Theoretically, at a 10 handed table. On the button with Axo. Folded to you.

Lets leave the poker part out of this regarding correct play. Does the fact that everyone has folded to you increase the probability that SB/BB have a premium hand?

I say no because a random event in the past cannot be influenced by subsequent action. There is no guarantee that anyone recevied a premium hand.

What's the math say? Thanks.

[steveyz]

This greatly depends on what range of hands the 7 people in front of you that folded will usually play. Obviously, if everyone will play any Ace and any King, then it is much more likely that the SB and BB have hands that contain an A and/or K.

[David Steele]

You are playing a 1 card game with 12 Cards AAAA,KKKK,QQQQ

Lets say the other players only play their hand if it is an
ace.

Now if they all fold to you on the button, you know for a fact that the remaining cards are AAAA and couple k's or q's
Do the blinds more likely have an A? Yes.

For actual holdem there ia only a very tiny effect.
D

[dennischambers]

The problem with your thinking is that you are regarding each hand as occurring as independent events. However, in most crappy games, players are not going to fold Ax or, in some very loose games, Kx for just the cost of the BB. Therefore, you can say with relative surety that none of the other players had an Ace or a King. Therefore, with 14 non-Ace and non-King cards removed from a randomly shuffled deck, the chances of their hand containing an Ace or a King is greatly increased. Therefore, the probability of the BB or SB holding a premium hand is increased. That's why most poker writers, Sklansky included, say it's best to fold marginal hands if it's been folded to you.
Thanks, Andrew