getting raised by a 2+2er.

mosch · #1 05-09-2004, 03:45 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (10 handed)

BB (t580)
UTG (t945)
UTG+1 (t1460)
UTG+2 (t3086)
MP1 (t955)
MP2 (t4540)
MP3 (t420)
CO (t2421)
Hero (t1545)
SB (2+2er) (t1430)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to t175, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to t500, SB (2+2er) raises to t1430 (All-In), BB folds, MP1 folds......

What should Hero do here, and why?

I'll post results (and initial reasoning) seperately.

Tosh · #2 05-09-2004, 03:50 AM

Depends on who it was, some people are more aggressive than others in these situations.

davidross · #3 05-09-2004, 11:41 AM

I'm pretty sure it was me. I posted this hand too. I can't see how you could get away from it even if you knew I would only do this with AA, KK or AK. It was just bad luck. Of course if it wasn't me disregard this message.

ZootMurph · #4 05-09-2004, 12:20 PM

I am weak tight in the early stages of a tournament. It was early in this tournament. And I STILL would have had to play it.

But I disagree with davidross... If I knew you'd only make this play with AA, AK, or KK, then I'd fold the hand. Simply knowing that, at best, I'm a TINY favorite and at worst I have but 2 outs for a ton of chips.

mosch · #5 05-09-2004, 01:04 PM

I folded. (and no, David, this wasn't you)

I had trouble putting the other player on anything but AA, KK or possibly AK. In the actual hand the player flashed AKs after taking the pot.

Tosh · #6 05-09-2004, 01:54 PM

Its a tough one. The problem is that even if he would make this play equally often with kings, aces and ace king you perhaps have the odds to call. 16 ways of AK, 6 each for AA and KK. When he has AK you are roughly a 57% favourite, depending on suits, and with aces or kings you are roughly a 19% dog.

16 times you will win 57% of the time - 9.12.
12 times you will win 19% of the time - 2.28.

You would win 11.40 times out of 28 according to these rough calculations. So you would need odds of 1.456/1 to call if you knew this to be true. You have a bit of an overlay here plus a lot of people would push jacks, and theres a small chance he has the same queens as you.

As I say its partially player dependant because some may sometimes fold AK here if they really respected your raise but I think I call without one helluva good read.

davidross · #7 05-09-2004, 02:49 PM

Wow,

this is almost identical to the hand I played. I had AK and moved in and he called, and i hit my K to win it.