betting the river (long?)

[el Jefe]

Hi everyone,

I've been playing low limit (1/2, 2/4, 3/6) online and live for about a year now. I obviously haven't posted much but have been an avid reader of the forum for several months, have read the books (HPFAP, WLLH, TOP) and in general feel my play is decent and continually getting better mainly due to reading you all.

There's something I've never quite understood and am hoping some of you can shed some light. It has to do with when to bet the river without the nuts and the comment that often appears here, which is "you'll only be called by a better hand."

1) how do I know when this is likely the case?

2) does this mainly apply when you are first to act?

and finally the real reason for my post

3) isn't there some value in betting so you won't have to show your cards if they fold?

I'm not sure I've seen this discussed before and have been thinking about posting this question for some time. After having read thousands of posts I finally saw a comment yesterday (from andyfox I think?) regarding a "bet the river" question that mentioned this. so now maybe I don't feel so stupid asking?

there are obvious situational exceptions but I think that if your hand is good enough to see the river (save maybe a draw that didn't make it when you're pretty sure your opponent wasn't on a draw) you should generally bet if first to act and esp. if it's checked to you. My reasons for this are:

1) people at the limits I play (and from the sounds of it, it's not too different up to 15-30) showdown crap ALL-THE-TIME. not only that but will call with everything from a second best hand to the nut low for fear this is the one time you are bluffing.

2) you are less likely to be raised or check-raised as on other streets.

3) assuming a win at showdown rate of even close to 50% the gain in bets if they call plus the advantage of not having to show if they fold or what even may turn into a successful bluff outweighs the risk of being called or raised by someone that beats you.

any thoughts? am I way off here?

thanks.

-Jeff

[CORed]

I don't think there's a lot of value to not showing your hands, especially in fishy low limit games where most of the players aren't really paying attention to how you play.

When you bet (or raise) the river, you want a worse hand to call, or a better hand to fold. If a worse hand folds, you have gained nothing for the money you have put at risk. Of course, if you bet and your opponent folds, you don't know what he held, so it's not all that easy to evaluate. In low-limit games, if you are heads up on the river with top-pair good-kicker or better, it is usually best to bet. However, there are a lot of exceptions. If the board got scary on the turn (3 or 4 to flush or straight, paired, etc.) and you were raised and didn't fold the turn, you should usually check-call if acting first or check behind if checked to, especially if you know your opponent will check-raise a good hand. A lot of this is player-dependant. Some players will try to bluff with little or nothing if you check to them on the river but fold if you bet. You can pick up quite a few extra bets from these players by checking. I would suggest that you reread the "Heads up on the End" section of TOP.

[LetsRock]

This situation depends a lot on the action to this point and what possibilities developed on the turn and river.

Typically, you'll have a hand that could be good (#2 pair, top pair weak kicker) but could easily be behind. (Ace on the board and you don't have one, reasonable straight or flush develops etc).

It's all about reading your opponents:
Are they playing reasonably? What could they have that they would still be hanging around? You need to evaluate the situation.

Are they fish? They could be hanging around with anything and it's more likely you would bet into them.

Are they tricky? Is it possible that someon is waiting to c/r?

Calling station? They very well may have the nuts and never bothered to "tell you". May be worth saving a bet.

I don't think there's a rule that covers when you bet for value and when you check it through (there's rarely an always or never in poker) so you just have to judge the situations as they occur.

[MaxPower]

Just read Theory of Poker and it will explain all this stuff to you.

Also, keep in mind that if it is multiway at the river, even if your value bets are successful less than 50% of the time, you will still make money on them (because you will often be called by 2 or more worse hands).