Worst beat ever %-wise (not a sob story)

[John Deere]

I took a pretty bad beat last night. I am thankful that it worked out that I didn't lose too much money, but it got me thinking whether there was, statistically, a worse beat possible.

Party 2/4, pretty loose table. I am on the button and limp into the pot with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] after about 5 other limpers. The flop comes 3 5 5 rainbow; someone bets and I raise. I get three callers. The turn is an A. Checked to me; I bet and get two callers. The river is another A, and the two others throw in a bet and a raise before it gets to me, so I drop. Sure enough, they each had an A and split the $55 pot.

So, in hindsight, we know that they each had an A. Likewise, the only way they could have won was for the two remaining A's to come on the turn and river, which they did. I figure that the odds were 2/47*1/46 = .0005, so I was a 99.95% favorite. I can't think of a possible worse bad beat. Can you?

(Although one of them had A4, and another had AK, so I suppose the runner-runner Ks would have won it for the second one also. So maybe I was only a 99.67% favorite on the flop.)

[illunious]

Any 2 would give A4 a straight

[NotMitch]

A 2 beats you as well.

[Dynasty]

The worst case scenario is when an opponent has only two cards left in the deck which can give him a winning hand and he catches both of them on the turn and river.

Here's an example:

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=235685
pokenum -h kc kh - 9d 4s -- ks 7d 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks 7d 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kh 989 99.90 1 0.10 0 0.00 0.999
4s 9d 1 0.10 989 99.90 0 0.00 0.001

The 94o can only win by catching the two remaining fours on the turn and river.

[icecreamwillie]

I won this hand and swore to never complain again. (I've violated that promise).
I have AJ in big blind. Late position player open raises. I put him on a steal and re-raise.
Flop J33. I check raise. He calls.
Turn 3 I bet. He calls.
River 3! I have the nuts and bet. He calls and shows JJ flopped nut full house!

[illunious]

My favorite bad beat story was something like:
Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

flop A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
river: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

All rounds were capped and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] takes the pot

[John Deere]

[ QUOTE ]
I won this hand and swore to never complain again. (I've violated that promise).
I have AJ in big blind. Late position player open raises. I put him on a steal and re-raise.
Flop J33. I check raise. He calls.
Turn 3 I bet. He calls.
River 3! I have the nuts and bet. He calls and shows JJ flopped nut full house!


[/ QUOTE ]

One time I was in a similar hand, where the board was something like A9999 and there were three or four people left in the hand. Someone before me bet, I raised, and sure enough, someone after me dropped. =)

[MicroBob]

runner-runner 44 would do the trick as well.

[ZeeJustin]

Two days ago, my QQ lost to A4o on the AAQ flop. Turn 6, river 6. The next day, my QQ lost to K4o on the KKQ flop. Turn 5, river 5. Both hands were capped preflop. I find the striking resemblance of these two hands to be more "odd" than the actual bad beats that occurred in them.

[Warik]

How about 2h, 8d on a 3d 4d 5d board vs. Ad 2d catching a 6d on the turn and 7d on the river?