Worst deal of the year (PStars $500+30, April 25)

[M.B.E.]

The situation was as follows:

There are 1.6525 million chips in play. Blinds are 15K/30K, ante 1500. As a percentage of the chips in play, the current chip positions are:

Earlbry -- 33%
Tallal -- 26%
Ulosenash -- 25%
Cristal C -- 10%
Exclusive -- 6%

Total prize pool is $330,500, of which $129,225.50 (39.1%) has already been distributed to players who finished 6th through 63rd. The scheduled prize payouts for the top five are:

1st -- 25.0% -- $82,625
2nd -- 14.3% -- $47,621.50
3rd -- 9.2% -- $30,406
4th -- 6.9% -- $22,804.50
5th -- 5.5% -- $18,177.50

Exclusive (whose stack was barely three times the big blind) proposed a deal where they would continue to play, but the payouts would be restructured as follows:

1st -- 17.0% -- $56,274.50
2nd -- 13.6% -- $45,000
3rd -- 12.1% -- $40,000
4th -- 9.1% -- $30,000
5th -- 9.1% -- $30,000

The chip leader (Earlbry) wanted a little extra regardless of his place of finish, and so each of the four other players agreed to transfer him $500 after the tourney finished.

I find it astonishing that Earlbry, Tallal, and Ulosenash are skilled enough to beat out over 600 players in a tourney of this calibre, but then gave up such a huge share of their EV in such an unfavourable deal.

[Nottom]

Depends on who you ask, if you ask Exclusive he will tell you it was a great deal.

Just another reason why a successful tourney player should know how to make a good deal.

[fnurt]

This deal was brutal to watch. How someone with 6% of the chips gets guaranteed 3rd place money is boggling to the mind. I guess the moral is that it never hurts to ask.

[TheGrifter]

It looks like these players were just very intimidated/scared of Exclusive. He does top the TLB at stars, but this deal is not good for the rest of the table.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like these players were just very intimidated/scared of Exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that was it. Of course I don't really know, but I suspect that they just didn't understand the logic of why restructuring the payouts like this can only help the small stacks.

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It looks like these players were just very intimidated/scared of Exclusive.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think that was it. Of course I don't really know, but I suspect that they just didn't understand the logic of why restructuring the payouts like this can only help the small stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with M.B.E that this was probably the case. I was shocked watching it. I think they might have been punch drunk after playing the tournament.

[fnurt]

It was originally Cristal C, who claimed to be a "big favorite over anyone here," that vetoed the idea of a deal based on straight chip counts. I don't play Stars enough to know who any of these people are, I guess.

[Bozeman]

For the independent chip model (of equal players), which slightly favors the small stacks, the raw payouts give expectations of:

33%:51100
26%:46400
10%:31800
6%:26700

with the new deal, they would be:

33:45100+2000=47100
26:43200-500=42800
10:36200-500=35700
6:33800-500=33300

I can't believe they (big stacks) gave up so much. They must have felt like they were big dogs and not had any good understanding of deal making, since the variance reduction is not that big (the already have 18k locked up).

Errors due to the independent chip model should be less than 1% in the absolute, and significantly less in the relative #'s.

Craig

[cferejohn]

[ QUOTE ]

I think they might have been punch drunk after playing the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or just drunk drunk from drinking too much. :P

[M.B.E.]

Incidentally, the actual order of finish was

1. ulosenash
2. Cristal C
3. Tallal
4. Earlbry
5. Exclusive

So even though it was a terrible deal for Earlbry at the time he made it, in the final result he was better off because of it.