boring aces hand

[Vehn]

30/60 live/5 bet cap. I open raise in early position with red aces. Super-maniac 3-bets in MP as usual. Loose passive LP coldcalls for $90. SB 4-bets. SB is a kid trying to play well and showing off to his sweater. I'm not sure what to make of his play yet. I call loudly. Maniac caps and everyone calls. Pot = $625.

Flop is 9c 8s 3h. SB checks, I bet, maniac raises, LP coldcalls, SB 3-bets, I call loudly, maniac 4-bets, LP calls cold, SB caps and I give up and call quietly while everyone else does. Pot = $1230.

Turn is the Jc. SB bets out, I raise loudly, maniac coldcalls, LP thinks for a long time and coldcalls, SB calls. Pot = $1705.

River is the Jh. SB bets out again. Now what? Is it close?

[daryn]

interesting situation.. pot is huge!

i would call and pray for a win, but is that the correct play? not sure. could this be a situation where you're not sure you have the best hand, but you might increase you chances of winning the hand if you raise to knock out other players, in other words do anything you can to win the pot? again, i'm not sure.

i call

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
you might increase you chances of winning the hand if you raise to knock out other players,

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey daryn, politely, I can't think of a single hand that any opponent would fold that is better than AA in this hand. You can probably call and fold to a raise behind you, Vehn.
-James

[Clarkmeister]

"Now what?"

Raise. The raising and other insanity *stopped* when the first jack came. The 2nd one didn't help anyone either. You have the best hand and the idiots behind you might call. Raise.

[amerksmann22]

I think you are prolly looking at a set somewhere. Either the SB or LP but it is hard to tell. The pot is also laying you over 25-1 (if math is correct) so I assume a call is in order on the end. There is a 25-1 chance that you have the best hand. If it is raised behind you then you stil have 15-1 odds but I would prolly fold to a raise here...tough spot.

[James282]

Hmm I misread the original post and forgot that the SB check-three bet the flop. It sure looks like he has either TT-AA himself or a set. His slowing down on the turn looks like one of two things. First, that he fears TT-KK is no good because you just hit a set(or 1 jack, if he had TT). Second, that you overset his smaller set. HIs bet again on the river could either mean that he doesn't fear someone for a set of jacks because there are now 2 out there and he likes his TT-KK again, or it could mean he doesn't fear a set of jacks because that jack filled him up and realistically he only loses to quads now. I would say these possibilities are in the realm of equal, and making people fold who you have beat behind you would suck, as would getting three-bet, so I simply call.
-James

[HiatusOver]

What about overcalls Clark? The SB obviously isn't bluffing here so he either has 88,99,QQ,KK,AA, IMO. Loose-Passive could have a J, but probably has an 8,9 or something...it all depends on how much he really thought on the turn and what he was considering and how loose-passive he really is. isnt J-10 or Q-J a possibility for him? If you raise the river here, you could easily make 2 worse hands fold and leave it open for the SB to 3-bet with a better hand. I would call and hope for atleast 1 and hopefully 2 overcalls.

[Clarkmeister]

SB 3-bet and capped the flop after 4-betting preflop. He only called when the jack came. You want to put him on a hand with a jack???

As for the people behind you....look, they coldcalled the turn with either a pair or a draw. The missed draws are folding regardless of how many bets it is, and the pair hands will coldcall again.

[HiatusOver]

If you read my post again, you will see I never mentioned that he might have a J (I did say that the loose-passive could have a J, but the fact that Vehn said he was thinking makes it a little less likely, depending on what it seemed he was thinking about), I listed what I thought SB'spossible hands are. I made my response pretty fast, almost as fast as you would need to during the hand, but I don't how raising the river here is clear cut

[Clarkmeister]

There just aren't any hands that beat you that wouldn't have raised the turn. Only one person in the hand has even a remote chance of having a jack, and with a 2nd Jack coming, that remote chance got even slimmer. Just what is beating him that wouldn't 3-bet the turn?