NL - Playing high pairs just outside the money

[tvdad]

What's the best way to play big pairs when it's late in the tourney and you're just outside the money?

If I make an all-in move when I've got a big stack, I'm not likely to be called. I usually just take down the blinds. If I do it when I'm short stacked, I get called all the time, usually by any Ace.

I have a dreadful record in this particular area. Over the past year, I have lost 75% of the time when I'm the all-in short stack with JJ/QQ/KK against an Ace when we're just a few spots from the money. Most of those losses come when an Ace hits the board and I don't improve my pair.

Usually I'm the one making the all-in bet. I don't like to call an all-in with a big pair because the Aces always kill me. But I can't believe how many times I get called by hands like A2, A3, A4. I would never call an all-in with that. I might make the bet myself, but never call with it. But apparently it's a good play because it's killing me.

Should I not be moving all-in with these big pairs preflop? It would seem that making a smaller raise would just be inviting more Aces to call, but they're calling anyway. And if I make the small raise and an Ace hits the board, I can't call the inevitable big bet that would put me all-in.

I get a headache just thinking about this situation.

T

[Che]

tvdad-

If I have JJ-KK on the bubble and less than 10xBB in my stack, I push in from any position. Don't even have to think about it.

If A3 calls, great. Even if it's A3s, I'm a 2:1 favorite. It sucks that you're loss rate is out of proportion to the odds at this point, but that can happen for a while.

If it's AK/AQ to my JJ, I'm a 5:4 favorite (or a little better). I wish they'd fold, but it's OK if they call.

The reality is that most of the time I will more than double if called, and I need to double if I'm going to have a chance of making it to real money at the final table. I'll gladly give up several barely inside the money finishes in order to improve my shot at winning or at least being in the top 5. One first place prize will make up for about 150 times that I finished just outside the bubble (as opposed to just inside) according to the payout structures of the tourneys I generally play.

If I have more than 10xBB, I make my normal raise and curse the dealer when an A flops. Tough folds, but sometimes you have to do it. I don't push in (if I'm the first one in) for more than 10xBB, though, because I'll only win the blinds if I have the best hand and I'll only be called by better hands.

Hope this helps,
Che

[ohkanada]

Sounds like you are playing the poor results. You should be quite happy when Ax calls your KK-TT. Not quite so happy when he hits the Ace of course.

Assuming you are not overbetting the pot keep getting the chips in the pot with the best hand. Start worrying if you are the one calling with Ax and losing to those decent size pairs.

Ken Poklitar

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Over the past year, I have lost 75% of the time when I'm the all-in short stack with JJ/QQ/KK against an Ace when we're just a few spots from the money.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you sure this statistic is accurate? What is the sample size?

[tvdad]

I just recalculated to be sure. The actual number is 75.8%. This comes from about a year's worth of online multi-table NL holdem tournaments. 527 tourneys in total, of which 124 hands contain the high pair vs. Ax all-in situation when nearing the money. Results: 30 wins, 94 losses. (After those 30 wins, I went on to finish in the money 28 times.)

That's not enough hands to be statistically accurate, but it does show a disturbing trend. Hence my post here.

Of those 124 hands, I made the all-in bet or raise 86 times, and called for all my chips the other 38 times. The only time I made the all-in call was when I had KK or QQ (sometimes I folded QQ or KK in this spot when heavy preflop raising by other players indicated I was in trouble, but those hands are not counted here.)

Breaking down the 94 losses: 58 of them occurred when an Ace hit the board. Of the 36 times when an Ace did not hit the board: 17 times his kicker paired to beat me (ie. he had AQ and hit a Q to beat my JJ), 11 flushes, 4 kicker sets, 2 straights, and 2 boats (ie. he had A6 against my QQ and the board came down 669TT.)

Breaking down the 30 wins: 22 times my pair held up, 6 times I made a set (twice when an Ace was on the board), and 2 times I made a straight (both times with an Ace on the board.) No flushes, no boats.

Note that an Ace hit the board 62 times out of the 124 hands (exactly 50%, well that's interesting.) I won 4 and lost 58 of those hands.

Also note that this does include a few times when I pushed all-in with as low as 99, which explains why his kicker hit so often to beat me. But it still only counts the times when I was called by Ax. I obviously have a much worse record when I try this and get called by a bigger pair, but that's something else I need to work on. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BTW, I made the money in 112 of these 527 tourneys. I don't know, is 21% good? I'm up a bit of money over this period, but nothing to get too excited about. I tend to play too tight toward the very end and don't get the big bucks as often as I probably should.

T

[Tosh]

I think your statistics show you have been unlucky. You can't legislate for bad luck.