Pot commited by mistake

[twistedbeats]

5/10 No limit on ub. i've got about 750 in front of me. i get dealt JJ after a limper. i go to raise to 40, and accidentally type in 400. obviously folded back to the limper who put me in for the 350 more. do i a) call and hope to get lucky, or b) fold and immediatly leave the table?

[Acesover8s]

What is your read on this guy? Does he have to have AA or KK here? Any chance he has TT or JJ, AK? AQ?

You're calling 350$ to win 1215$, if there is any chance you may be ahead or a coinflip I think you have to call.

Although, a fold and a rebuy here may give you enough "Retard Equity" to win a big pot later.

[twistedbeats]

he was new, but i didn't think there was any chance he didn't have bullets.

so, mathematically, i'm only getting about 10:3, when i need what, 5.5:1? but, psychologically, can i lay down here

[TheGrifter]

Man that sucks. I would fold here. There's no chance you aren't against an overpair and you don't have odds to call. Also, what an image this gives you. A guy raises more than half his stack preflop and then folds. Anyone who sees that will have a hard time respecting you or your raises, take advantage of it.

[ML4L]

Hey twisted,

Call, and it's not close. You only have to be up against AK or TT a small percentage of the time for a call to be correct here.

Raises of that size make people think you're nuts. And when one thinks he's up against a maniac, he/she is bound to make some unconventional plays. Not to mention the fact that, without a read on the other player, he/she might be terrible and be the type to get married to a hand like TT/99/AK/AQs and say, "He probably doesn't have a big pair; who does that with a big pair? I must have the best hand. F--- it; let's gamble..."

ML4L

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
he was new, but i didn't think there was any chance he didn't have bullets.



[/ QUOTE ]

Not knowing the player, there's no way you can be 100% sure he has AA.

[ QUOTE ]
so, mathematically, i'm only getting about 10:3, when i need what, 5.5:1? but, psychologically, can i lay down here

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure can. If this were live and he turned over AA, fold. This is a mathematical decision, not a psychological one.

I'm voting for a call. If you are 100% sure he has AA-QQ, you're making something like an $80 mistake. He needs to have AK a little under 20% of the time to make it neutral EV. While I don't think he will have AK nearly this often, when you toss in the possibility that he has something like TT or 99, I think it swings the decision.

Oh, and calling and cracking his aces is WAY more fun.

[ML4L]

Here's the math. 1165 in the pot; 350 to call. Suppose that he has KK 90% of the time, AKo 5% of the time, and TT 5% of the time. EV of folding is zero. EV of calling:

.90[.185(1515) - 350] = -62.75
.05[.569(1515) - 350] = 25.60
.05[.820(1515) - 350] = 44.62

EV = 44.00 + 25.18 - 65.25 = $7.47

OK, so maybe it is close... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But, I think the weights that I chose are a little conservative. I would view it as being closer to 86/7/7, maybe even 80/10/10. He open-limped in MP. Most players would not go for a limp-reraise there. If he had raised UTG, things would be different. I think with the maniac factor (the opponent might be one, or he might think that twisted is one...), it's a call.

ML4L

[twistedbeats]

by kk, you mean qq, kk, or aa, right? last i checked twodimes is down, but i'm pretty sure any overpair is close enough where they're all the same for your math.

the thing is tho, i can't imagine anyone expecting me to lay down, which is why i put him immediatly on a hand.

[ML4L]

Hey twisted,

Yeah, instead of running AA, KK, and QQ and averaging the three, I just used KK as a proxy; like you said, all three are almost identical.

You're right; your opponent is 99% surely not bluffing. But, as I mentioned, with any of those holdings, he probably feels as though he has the best hand and actually wants a call.

Again, you're gonna get shown a better hand the vast majority of the time. But, given the MP limp, I think that this is going to be a worse hand often enough to make a call correct. Although, as the math showed, folding isn't terrible here.

I just agree with the guy that said that cracking aces is fun... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ML4L

[Matt Flynn]

There are other reasons to call. You do not want your opponents to think you will ever fold after putting half your chips in. It encourages them to take shots at you and to raise you all-in with draw hands. You also WANT to show jacks after getting all in preflop. It encourages the weaker players to do the same with jacks (and they'll do it with bigger stacks). It also makes you look looser than you are and helps protect you against random raise attacks when you're raising a lot (because they think you'll call down with a wide range of hands and so are much less likely to take shots at you).

Whatever you do, don't act like you knew you were behind when he shows a big pair. Don't give up your screwup equity!

Matt