My Allin Prelop Results - Statistically Relevant?

[Utah]

Given that I have played 1,000s of hours online and given that I have consistently won over that period, I am far from someone who believes that online sites have inaccurate or faulty shuffles.

However, I switched to pokerstars about 300 sngs ago and I have a return of about 30%, which is low for me. I noticed that I was losing a ton of favorable all-ins. So, I started tracking them.

Over the last 122 preflop allins:

When favorable: 78 times. Lost 38. Win Percentage: 54%
When Unfavorable: 43 times Lost 35. Win Percentage: 19%

Overall, I am 48wins and 73loses even though I was favored 64% of the time.

Is this statistically significant? How big does my sample have to be to indicate a concern?

Thanks

[NotMitch]

Without knowing how big of a favorite you were in the situations there is no way to know what this means if anything. And 122 isn't a large enough sample size anyway.

[Utah]

i can calculate that. However, I am more curious as to how large the sample has to be. Any ideas? 300? 1000? 10000?

[Tosh]

Statistically relevant in this case probably means more like tens of thousands of favourable/unfavourable hands.

[C M Burns]

how reliable your sample is is something you can calculate, I'd have to think a little more about exactly how though. First you would need the average amount you were favored and the number of hands, then u would compare your value to the expected. You can also put a value on how reliable it is. What you would be calculating is how likley is it that your result came from a distrobution where the expected result is the real average. (you could use a z-score) Anyhow you could put a number on how likley your results are chance, and calculate how many hands you would need to "prove" they were not chance. And of course the bigger the diference the less hands you would need to be conclusive.

It might be fun just to see and if a bunch of people got their hands together of allins head up pf, you could combine them. u would just need average amount fav/unfav, actualll win/loss, then number of hands. I beleive you could just average people numbers to combine them. Anyhow I may try looking at mine when i get a chance.

[Prickly Pete]

I'm assuming you're doing this by hand. Does anyone know if there's any way in Poker Tracker to track this sort of thing?

[XlgJoe]

[ QUOTE ]
When favorable: 78 times. Lost 38. Win Percentage: 54%
When Unfavorable: 43 times Lost 35. Win Percentage: 19%

[/ QUOTE ]

Just asking but wouldn't you expect the two win% to total 100%. Not that that helps answer your question, just wondering.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
When favorable: 78 times. Lost 38. Win Percentage: 54%
When Unfavorable: 43 times Lost 35. Win Percentage: 19%

Overall, I am 48wins and 73loses even though I was favored 64% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

It was already mentioned, but I think this is important enough to repeat. If you don't take into account how much a favorite or a dog you where each all-in, these numbers mean absolutely nothing. It reminds me of a post by CrisBrown, a few months ago, where she complained about being the most unlucky on-line player, and showed some numbers from PT about all-in results (like you do here), to prove it. It looked pretty bad, and was replied by some 20+ posts, that told her she's just having a bad streak, until one poster pointed out she was getting exactly (or almost so, with that small sample) what she sould expact, if considering her advantage and disadvantage each time. She obviously didn't take it into calculation, like the rest of the posters who read her post.

[Utah]

Overall: 54% (chance of me winning)
Favorable Allins: 65%
Unfavorable Allins: 34%

To make is simple: Lets say I made a simple bet where I had a 54% percent chance of winning, what percentile of results would I fall under with placing the bet 122 times - i.e., "X percent of the time I should expect to see my results fall within this range"

My guess is that my results will not be that far out of whack.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

You need more hands than this for statistical significance, given the normal and expected variance. My last 5 sessions, some 1K hands I've won almost every showdown situation in which I had serious doubts (i.e. two callers with QQ when the board showed an A and a 3-flush). I don't think I won a single one of these in the entire month of February.