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#1
04-09-2004, 03:38 PM
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When that turn check-raise play works too well
15/30, full table. Most opponents are unknown, except for a 2+2er who has just left the table. Game is generally playing loose.
I have Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the SB. Weak player UTG limps, shortish stack in EP raises, I 3-bet, the BB cold calls, and UTG and EP call too. Flop is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet out and all three call. Turn is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I check, intending to raise. BB bets out, UTG raises, EP calls two. I should follow through here, no? 
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#2
04-09-2004, 04:06 PM
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Re: When that turn check-raise play works too well
Wow, Nate. That's a rough spot. I can honestly make a case for all three options (call, raise, fold). The presence of a bettor, a raiser, and a cold-caller on the turn and you have one pair w/ no draw. I think you are behind here better than 75% of the time. The times you are ahead, you probably get outdrawn 30-40% or so (any diamond, Ace, 6, plus whatever kicker/random King is out there)
It may be pretty weak, but I think you have a maximum of two outs with the small possibility of drawing dead. If you call here, you are committed to calling at least one more bet on the river, so you have some pretty negative implied odds. I think you have a fold. Goddamn, I'm so weak tight. Flame away!!
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#3
04-09-2004, 04:32 PM
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Re: When that turn check-raise play works too well
Oh boy, this looks like one of the times a Check/Raise play can turn to check fold, but lets take a look at the action so far. 4 players to the Flop for 3 bets with 2 players calling at least 2 cold ... this flop shouldn't have hit anyone unless they were holding a small pp. The turn action is setting off all sorts of alarms. My most solid read is that the EP player has a PP under your Queens and over the board, and sees no reason to exit the action right now. As for the BB, do you think he's going to call 2 cold with any 2 cards? I'm picturing a ragged hand with a 7, maybe even 2 diamonds trying to pick up the pot right now against a table full of folks who missed their overcards. This weak UTG is who really concerns me. This is the sort of player who wouldn't fold 22, 33, 44 or A5s for 2 more bets preflop. I think you're beat and drawing dead/slim in this particular hand, but situationally I wouldn't lay it down without better reads. I'm definitely not going to check/3 bet, at this point your actions have been consistent with AKo to the majority of the table, they're not going anywhere. And since we're not folding, I want to see the river as cheaply as possible. You don't want to see any Diamond, A, or 5 on the river (Another thing telling me to fold when it's 2 bets to me on the turn) I'd check call 1 bet, If any of those scare cards hit, or it's 2 bets to me, I'm folding.
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#4
04-09-2004, 04:35 PM
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Re: When that turn check-raise play works too well
[ QUOTE ]
If the river isn't a diamond or a 5, I'd check call 1 bet, If it is, or it's 2 bets to me, I'm folding. (Unless you hit your Q of course) [/ QUOTE ] An ace or a six don't scare you on the river? Anyone w/ a 5 now has an openender.
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#7
04-09-2004, 04:52 PM
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Re: When that turn check-raise play works too well
GoT, what are you putting your opponents on that could lead to this sort of unexpected action on such a raggedy board. I have to throw 2 pr out the window, so at least 2 of the 3 other people in the hand at least believe they have a good shot at beating 7's. And I venture that one of them can beat any unimproved pair. What do you see?
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#8
04-09-2004, 05:13 PM
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Re: When that turn check-raise play works too well
if the opponents are reasonably aggressive i would expect them to bet and raise with a fair number of hands that QQ can still beat. based on how the betting has played out at the time the bet and the raise go in it really looks like both of the pre flop raisers just have unimproved big cards. i would think that this would encourage the other players to bet both because they think their marginal hands may be good and also because they would like to put a lot of pressure on the overcards to fold.
i would not be surprised to see the BB betting out with just about any piece of the board or pocket pair and the raiser could easily have a similar hand. the cold caller really looks like he just has unimproved big cards, if he is reasonable then they are likely diamonds, if he isnt then maybe he is just hanging on with his overcards and gutshot to the wheel. its also possible he has a smaller pocket pair and is just shutting his eyes and crossing his fingers hoping things turn out ok but it really doesnt look like the cold caller can beat QQ. all that being said i wouldnt be all that surprised if one of the players doing the betting had a better hand but i dont think this is likely enough to fold.
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#10
04-09-2004, 06:06 PM
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Re: When that turn check-raise play works too well
[ QUOTE ]
i would not be surprised to see the BB betting out with just about any piece of the board or pocket pair and the raiser could easily have a similar hand. the cold caller really looks like he just has unimproved big cards, if he is reasonable then they are likely diamonds, if he isnt then maybe he is just hanging on with his overcards and gutshot to the wheel. its also possible he has a smaller pocket pair and is just shutting his eyes and crossing his fingers hoping things turn out ok but it really doesnt look like the cold caller can beat QQ. all that being said i wouldnt be all that surprised if one of the players doing the betting had a better hand but i dont think this is likely enough to fold. [/ QUOTE ] Way to put everyone on the exact hands that QQ could beat. A million monkeys, with a million typewriters, etc......
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