A debatable play?

[DocHollyday]

Hi guys,

My brother and pokerbrother just had a dispute about a hand he played, which he thinks is allright, but of which I think it has negative EV.

He is in the big blind with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

As usual in our local 20/40$ game there are lots of players who play the any two can win style, so it were 6 limpers and the button raised. Flatcalled by everyone, but the SB. So 8 players to the flop:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to the raiser who bet. My bro called and so did everyone else.

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to the initial raiser who bets again, my bro check-raises, three call, intial raiser mucks. Last one blanks, he bets, everyone folds.

Ok, his thinking was, that if he spikes a four he will get a good pot and that the odds more or less justify the flop call with that many players.

I think that it was a bad play (although I like that he won [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), because the board was that coordinated and despite getting a four, there are just too many redraws possible to make this appropriate.

Your opinions??

[MaxPower]

The redraws don't bother me as much as the possibility that someone will check-raise. He is getting 17:1. Maybe that is enough to call if he were last to act, but in this situation I don't think so.

[SoBeDude]

He pulled in 6 big bets after he hit his set. He's lucky there. There are 9 already in the pot when the called the flop bet. Thats 15 big bets and a nice sized pot.

He's trying to spike a 2-outer but at least he's holding the correct 4 of spades. He's going to hit it about one time in 22 tries. It only costs one small bet to try to hit it, assuming he doesn't get raised.

He's not going to win every time he hits, given the obvious straight and flush draws out there. Lets say there are 15 outs that will make someone a straight or flush, and that two opponents are each on one of those draws. That leaves 31 cards on the river that give you a winner.

So assuming you hit on the turn (like he did), the set will hold 67% of the time.

But you can't count on 3 people calling 2 cold on the turn to your check-raise.

so 67% of the time you hit, lets say you win 13 Big bets on average in this spot.

So you will win .67 x 13 = 8.71 Big bets

But when you make your set and lose, you'll lose at least another big bet, probably two. we'll call that a loss of 0.33 x 2 = 0.66 Big bets lost

The other 21 of the 22 times, you spend 0.5 Big bets and fold when you miss. Thats 10.5 Big bets spent.

So when its all tallied, he loses 11.1 Big bets on the flop call, and makes only 8.71 Big bets.

His play is significantly -EV.

-Scott

[MarkD]

This is my thinking too. He got the absolute best sitaution though - everyone called behind behind him so the pot is 24sb's going into the turn.

I think sobe's math is off somewhere but don't have the heart to go through it.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi guys,

My brother and pokerbrother just had a dispute about a hand he played, which he thinks is allright, but of which I think it has negative EV.

He is in the big blind with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

As usual in our local 20/40$ game there are lots of players who play the any two can win style, so it were 6 limpers and the button raised. Flatcalled by everyone, but the SB. So 8 players to the flop:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to the raiser who bet. My bro called and so did everyone else.

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to the initial raiser who bets again, my bro check-raises, three call, intial raiser mucks. Last one blanks, he bets, everyone folds.

Ok, his thinking was, that if he spikes a four he will get a good pot and that the odds more or less justify the flop call with that many players.

I think that it was a bad play (although I like that he won [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]), because the board was that coordinated and despite getting a four, there are just too many redraws possible to make this appropriate.

Your opinions??


[/ QUOTE ]

my only problem is that he didn't close the action. ...he had all those people to act behind...and he'd be forced to call if he did close the action on the c-r from utg since it would be something like 31.5:1...

but from the initial persepective its 17.5:1 but if somebody raises and all call it becomes all tolled 32.5:2 or 16.25:1 which you'd have to make up ALOT of bets and there's those redraws...the redraws won't stop me from calling if i CLOSE the action...but they'd make me toss the fours from the bb in this case since all 6 pepole have to act behind me after i call AND i'm forced to call again given the initial call.

and you can quote me on that opinion lol.
-Barron

[SoBeDude]

think sobe's math is off somewhere but don't have the heart to go through it.

It could be off. I'd love to hear where it's off though.

-Scott

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
This is my thinking too. He got the absolute best sitaution though - everyone called behind behind him so the pot is 24sb's going into the turn.

I think sobe's math is off somewhere but don't have the heart to go through it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea sobe's math is a bit off...that 67% holding up figure may be suspect...

any 8, 9, t, k, or ace make a straight and with 8 callers its probable someon'es got it...any spade but he has one so 10 left (i usually go by the cards that are there and don't automatically assume a flush draw but a spade would usually have him beat but i still count all 10 spades here, since if i only counted 8, why not 6, or only 4 spades right?)

so thats 7*4 + 10= 38 out of 47 cards you DO NOT want to see.. 5.222:1 against hitting a good card or 19.1% of the deck being good. discounted for the possibility of lets say 1/3 of the times nobody has the river card completing the draw and we take 1/3 of 38=12.6 but i'll take 12. so 26 out of 47 cards are are bad so 47:21 against good one hitting= 2.24:1 or ~45% of the time the set will be good. instead of that 67% figure...granted my 1/3 figure there is quite arbitrary but i think its a good estimate.

all subjective there but i think 67% holding up with that many callers ain't too likely...BUT then again the callers have to call 2 big ones cold so maybe 67% IS INDEED correct.

all depends on what you think you know.
-Barron

PS- i just reread and realized its 46 not 47 but whatever, i'm not redoing it

[DcifrThs]

i just posted an example of where it might be off...didn't really take issue or try to with the rest of it.
-Barron

[SoBeDude]

But it seems that with your possible numbers, the call only gets WORSE, thus my assessment that the call is -EV still stands, right?

-Scott

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
But it seems that with your possible numbers, the call only gets WORSE, thus my assessment that the call is -EV still stands, right?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

well yea but i wasn't taking issue with your conclusion...i came to the same conclusion...just picking on your math ;-)

-Barron