River play

[rootsmusic]

6-handed live game ($40 stacks, $.25/$.50 blinds), mostly tight, decent but not great players. Game is tighter than a typical looser short-handed game. One seemingly decent player, completely new to the group, has been stealing the blinds and the EP limpers' limp money with consistent $4 raises preflop when in position.

Preflop:
This player is in the CO and I am on the button, both with equal stacks (I think we were both at $50 or so). It is folded to the CO who open-raises $4. I look down to see KK. I think for a second and call, deciding to slowplay with position. Blinds fold.

Flop ($8.75):
something like: 4h Ks Jh
He bets $4, I pause and raise to $12. With no flsh draw the slowplay would likely continue, but I wanted to make sure some money got in right here to prevent the easy suckout. He starts to try to chat me up in a friendly way now to get a read on me, we both came from NYC, etc. The more he is lollygagging here, the more I am convinced that he has a flush draw, and is guaging whether to make a loose call here, or how exactly to play it. I am obviously praying he has a pair or two. He finally calls; I am pretty sure that I convinced him with all the chatter that I had an ok hand like top pair. I am fine with a call here.

Turn ($32.75)
something like: 7h
F***, the flush. He pauses and bets $4. I call. OK, tiny bet, I have monster outs, he may not have the flush. But it is the hand I put him on, and I'm not sure why he would bet into me here without wanting to see a raise. Maybe to be able to feel good about folding. Of course, if he has the flush, he's going nowhere.

River ($40.75)
let's say: 3c
He pauses longer and bets $20. What are the factors for the call/fold here? Is it purely how often he would bluff in this spot, this way? What about against a random, never-seen-before player, how often would you call/fold/push?


On the one hand I feel calling the turn and river is so fishy, just never pushing back after the scare card hit. But on the other hand, if you are beat you lose the minimum, instead of the entire stack, which could easily happen in this hand. I did, after all, put him on a flush. Can you dump it here? Or is that way too weak?

thanks.

[tewall]

Once it gets to the end, it becomes a math problem. If I counted right, you've got about 30 left. He's betting 20 into a pot of 40, so you're getting 2 to 1. So if you think it's better than 1 in 3 that he has a flush, you pass. If you think you're a favorite you raise. If you think you're between 1/3 and 1/2 good, you call. Since you're close to all-in anyway, there's no reason to go all-in unless you think you're the favorite, as there's no way he'll fold a hand that beats yours.

With the stacks so small, you should be playing much more aggressively.

If the stacks were smaller, you could call with the plan of going all-in on the flop if an Ace didn't fall. Here if you wait until the flop to make your move, it's going to be difficult to get all the guys money because he's not committed enough. So you've got to raise pre-flop. That way he's more on the hook, so if an Ace doesn't fall, you can aggressively bet or raise and have a good chance of doubling up. If you slow play, you're giving draws a good price to bust you.