Missed bets, or proper caution?

[dana33]

In a couple of hands I played last night, I'm not sure whether I was too passive or legitimately cautious in backing off on the turn and/or river. Please advise. (BTW, I limped with 44 from UTG+1 because typically there were about 5 callers and little raising PF, though in this case that didn't happen.)

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB shows Qs 9d (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero shows 4h 4s (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.50 BB. </font>

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 (poster) checks, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 13.50 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
UTG shows Ks Qh (one pair, queens).
UTG+1 shows 3d 3h (one pair, threes).
CO shows 7h 9s (one pair, sevens).
Button shows 2d Ts (one pair, tens).
Hero shows Qd Ac (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.50 BB. </font>

[bisonbison]

Hand 1: This is alright, but I might cap the turn unless my notes said "rock". The limp is absolutely fine. Sometimes the table folds. In 99% of Party .5/1 games, I'd do this with any pair UTG.

Hand 2: You must bet the river. Fear not the flush.

I know it gets scary cause there are so many callers, but the flush is only there about 25-33% of the time, and if you bet you will get paid off enough of the time to make up for the times when the flush is out. If you don't bet, you will not make up for it. You left 2 or 3 BB on the table.

[StellarWind]

Hand 1: The 3-bet on the turn shows a very strong hand. His likely hands are 99 (three possible hands) and Q9 (nine possible hands) with outside chances for QQ, Q4, 94, and insanity.

Those odds suggest further action but there are two counterbalancing factors:

1. He's really gone too far with Q9 and that decreases the chance of him having it.

2. He has more outs with Q9 (four) then you have against 99 (one).

Your play is reasonable.

Hand 2: C'mon, gotta bet the river. You passed up several BBs against the chance that someone might raise with a flush/straight and cost you one extra BB.

[sublime]

Newbie question.....

Why is it okay to not be more aggresive here? Flopping top two pair is really good, and SB is more than likely not afraid of 44. I asked this question last week and the chance of two people floping sets is like 1%. Over the long term aren't we leaving a lot of money on the table by being "scared".....I am probably missing something, but sombody advised me to post what i think......

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Newbie question.....

Why is it okay to not be more aggresive here? Flopping top two pair is really good, and SB is more than likely not afraid of 44. I asked this question last week and the chance of two people floping sets is like 1%. Over the long term aren't we leaving a lot of money on the table by being "scared".....I am probably missing something, but sombody advised me to post what i think......

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a good question and I expect divergent opinions.

Part of the answer is that there are no good draws on this board except JT. That means it is unlikely that people are either semibluffing or expecting others to be semibluffing.

Suppose Hero had AQ for TPTK. SB bets the flop and you raise. SB 3-bets and you cap. SB bets the turn and ...? Feeling good about having one pair? Want to raise a third time? Some discretion seems in order here.

Now turn it around. When Hero does raise the turn, SB should worry that Hero has more than top pair. The next (sort of) possible limping hand for Hero is Q9. Then comes 44 and 99. SB cannot be blamed for wondering if his Q9 is good. Since most micro players tend to be passive there is an excellent chance that he will not reraise the turn with just two pair.

So the a priori odds for Q9 are three times as high as 99, but that gap is closing rapidly due to SB's strong play. This is where you really need a read on SB. Against a passive SB you are probably dead to 99 or even QQ. But a very aggressive SB would raise preflop with 99 and now is out-of-control with two pair or less.

Since we don't know about this SB, I'd say most random micro players are passive and I can't object to the decision to just call SB down.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
Since we don't know about this SB, I'd say most random micro players are passive and I can't object to the decision to just call SB down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is fine and I would be the first guy biting his lip if SB held 99, but the chances of that are slim. I dont know, I guess I am kind of confused. dont we limp with small pairs so something like this does happen and we pound the guy for overplaying his usual winner?

[bakku]

maybe these boards have made me over aggressive-after being accussed of wussing out on a similar hand-but i'm at least capping the turn, unless i have a good read on SB that tells me otherwise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]