Easy hand-reading exercise -- Party 15/30

[JimmyV]

Player to my immediate right is a decent one, maybe a little aggressive. My only note on him is about a hand where he isolation-reraised 99, which I liked.

Party 15/30 evening hand -- UTG+1 limps, 99-reraiser limps, and I raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. SB folds, BB reraises, and all call. (BB's play in this hand is a topic for another post; prior to this hand I had no read on him.)

Flop 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I bet, expecting BB to check-raise his overpair. But all call.

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Sweet. Checked to me, and I bet my trips, all call -- and the player to my right checkraises.

What's my play and what did this guy turn over? What percent sure are you of your answer?

While you're at it, read my AJ post from yesterday and read THAT hand for me.

JimmyV

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Player to my immediate right is a decent one, maybe a little aggressive. My only note on him is about a hand where he isolation-reraised 99, which I liked.

Party 15/30 evening hand -- UTG+1 limps, 99-reraiser limps, and I raise with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. SB folds, BB reraises, and all call. (BB's play in this hand is a topic for another post; prior to this hand I had no read on him.)

Flop 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I bet, expecting BB to check-raise his overpair. But all call.

Turn T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Sweet. Checked to me, and I bet my trips, all call -- and the player to my right checkraises.

What's my play and what did this guy turn over? What percent sure are you of your answer?

While you're at it, read my AJ post from yesterday and read THAT hand for me.

JimmyV

[/ QUOTE ]

from the looks of it the likely hands for this decent player are JTs, T9s, QTs, KTs, ATs, 77, or an overpair with the latter being very unlikely. 98s representing a T is a possibility since he may think its unlikely for you to raise with a ten and likely have an overpair and he's trying to get you off it and win if a 9 or an 8 hits. but it really looks like 77 from here.

BUT, you posted this so it could be any one of those hands, but if he's good then 98s should be a fold preflop for those extra bets, two more cold with the possibility of a reraise from you. most people don't lay that down though and i'd expect he probably wouldn't either...personally that hand is in the muck in that situation preflop.

back to his hand. i'd hesitate to say he has the ten for sure here because he'd have to KNOW you'd bet and checking and calling on the flop with a ten here is a bad play...very bad. i would never consider it unless he checked with the intention of seeing what you and the bb do. maybe he expected you to bet, the bb to c-r and him to have to release his JTs, QTS, KTS. but then you bet and all just called so he thinks he may be good and doesn't want to risk the reraise should he NOW check raise into 3 callers. now when the ten comes he can check hoping you bet again if he had it...

BUT, i think the free card he gave on the flop was so you can catch up should you be betting your overcards or overpair (overpair is unlikely to catch in one card 22:1 about). once the T hits he KNOWS he's good with his midsized 58foot boat and wants those bets in. the BB im not sure about here.

your play should now be to reraise because of the possiblity he has a ten and not the 77 exactly. he could also have been slowplaying aces and put you on a different overpair which would be a "crime" not to raise aces preflop but knows you're behind him so you might raise...you do and he might have wante dto limp reraise but it was so he just called not wanting to make you call another 2 cold...bad thinking but who know sright?

anyway. if he IS a good player, AND he KNOWS youre a good player who can have a T here i say hes a 4:5 shot to have the sevens. 44 is unlikey because w/ only 1 caller he can't flop a set and its unlikely 44 will ever be top pair whereas 77 -tt can.

what say everybody else?

NOTE: if this was the average party 15/30 player i would NEVER have even considered putting this much thought in...but our hero says he was a decent player so i take him at his word.

-Barron

[DeucesUp]

I guess I'm a not a very good hand reader, because I didn't find it easy to put him on a hand. Here's the possibilities in order of liklihood:

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] The preflop flop play is a bit loose, but this makes the most sense post-flop as he had the odds to take one card off on the flop with gutshot + weak over card + backdoor flush. And picked up enough of a draw on the turn for a value raise against 3 opponents.

9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] seems possible, but seems like he would've CR'ed the flop with chance to charge 3 opponents an extra bet with a nice draw.

A Ten, most likely with a weak kicker such as JTs or T9s, but possibly AT or KT. I don't quite understand the passive play on the flop though. Since it was 3-bet preflop he might fear an overpair and he might fear being out-kicked, but he really needs to find out on the flop with a bet or raise.

77 (or 44) - the preflop limp from the CO with only 1 player in and calling 2 more cold against 3 opponents seems a bit weak, but not completely out of line. But the slow play with a set is reasonable here.

[Clarkmeister]

77 or 44. 100% sure assuming he is any good.

Note that if he doesn't have 77 or 44, I'll say that my 100% guess was still valid, since he then obviously *isn't* any good. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[AJo Go All In]

it would seem that he flopped a set.

[sthief09]

85% sure he has 77, but I have no business posting in this forum [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] he basically has to have a monster to check-raise in a situation that jams the pot, especially with a paired board. I guess he COULD have an OE straight flush draw, but I don't know if it's prudent to jam the pot with that, or limp with a suited connector in the CO after one limper. I also suppose he could have KTs or JTs, because part of me says that he wouldn't limp with 77 in the CO after one limp, especially given your read on him. I really don't think he's limping with 44 in the CO

but given the uncoordinated flop, I think a slowplayed 77 makes a lot of sense

[mts]

i can see him having
44
77
89d
AT - very rare

most likely 44.

[JimmyV]

I called him down and he showed 77, of course. I was 93% sure at the time.

I posted this hand because when I'm playing three tables simultaneously (or four) I think I'm sometimes hasty. My first thought here (as always when check-raised on the turn) was 'oh hell, I'm behind'; but then my second thought was, 'No I'm not, I have the best ten.' I almost re-raised for value and to charge the draws -- but luckily I took an extra second to rethink the flop action. It just made no sense for this guy to check the flop holding a ten. 77 was the only legit possibility.

Another interesting thing here is that a bad read is self-fulfilling; if I make the right read I can keep the other two players in, but if I read it wrong and re-raise them out I destroy my pot odds (I have six outs on the turn). Acting with 93% certainty that I was beaten I gave myself a scenario where my last two bets were much closer to being only seven percent of the pot. (The pot would have been bigger on the end if I'd hit an A on the river, of course; although on the other hand I might have lost then to a grotesquely slowplayed AA in the BB.) So I think I have an overlay here, but I would destroy it by reraising, whether for value OR for information.

As I said, not an incredibly interesting hand but worth a look. A good feeling also to have saved four bets, plus all the theoretical money my opponents put in drawing nearly dead (6/44 of $60 plus 6/44 of whatever I can make them call on the river), just by double-checking my read and doing something properly passive with a big hand.

77 had a bad night against me tonight; I got three-bet on the turn out of the small blind against 77 and a guy with an overpair when I flopped top two with J7; then the river was my two-out J. Sweet!

Working hard to refute Astroglide's calumnies about my play (see my AJ post),

JimmyV

[LJL]

To me, the likely hands are: JTs, QTs, 77, and 98s.

Back to front, 98s is doubtful, say, 10%. If he's a good player, he should have folded it on two bets pre-flop. (For the same reason, I wouldn't even consider KTs.) I commend the semi-bluff, though, if that's what he had.

JTs or QTs are possible, say, 20% each. He may have put you on two overcards, T9s, or perhaps even JJ.

77 most likely. 50%.

[LJL]

I rescind my comment about the semi-bluff, given the # of opponents still in the pot and its size. And note that I suppose he may have had 98 diamonds and was actually betting for value.