when does a semi-bluff become a value bet...

[limon]

there has been discussion over time regarding flat calling the flop with hands such as tptk. the argument is that you let an aggressive player keep blowing off money to you. i have been the aggressor and the flat caller and in both instances the player w/ tptk should have raised.

i remember a hand where i open raised w/AcTc and got called on the button by a very weak/loose player. we both had big stacks. i put him on a medium pocket pair or suited connectors. the flop was A47 rainbow. I bet the pot he called. I put him on 56s or AXs. turn was a ten. I bet the pot he called. river 2 i bet the pot he called and showed AK. he thought i was blowing off money and was so unhappy i made 2 pair. i felt, in retrospect, my flop bet was a value bet due to the fact that he was giving me 12-1 implied odds knowing full well he was going to call pot size bets til the end regardless of the board. who was he trapping? himself i think. but ive seen this advice of flat calling an aggressive player given several times.

sooo...whenever you flat call a flop bet with a hand you're going to the end with you are making a mistake if you're opponent has outs to beat you and the stacks are deep enough that the implied odds are there to draw. yes or no?

now if you are not going to back the hand all the way i feel a flat call is fine to keep the pot small and maybe get a free card on the turn.

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]

now if you are not going to back the hand all the way i feel a flat call is fine to keep the pot small and maybe get a free card on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

most times I flat call on the flop it's for pot size reasons, since I generally don't want to back a pair with my whole stack. personally, my standard line is to raise the flop if I have position and TPTK, and probably underbet the pot on the turn/river.

I am not a fan taking the initiative by raising the flop (assuming we are heads) out of position, because getting raised on the later streets sucks. so personally I like raising more on the flop with position, and flat calling out of position because I hate playing big pots with a pair out of position. agree or disagree?

also, are we talking about a pot raise here, or a min raise? I am assuming we are talking about a real (pot sized) raise.

--turnipmonster

[1800GAMBLER]

The aggressive dominated player has 3 outs. It's important do only do this against tight players who will fold. The ADP has to make 14 times more when he hits his 3 outs than he'll lose when he misses. So against anyone who'll bluff the turn, yet fold the flop to a raise, chances are it's going to be the right play.

So if that player knew you'd fold AT to his raise and always pot bet the turn regardless of what hits he played it perfect.

[AJo Go All In]

hmm. i don't know if i totally agree with you here. if he put you on what you had, you had 3 outs.

i think flatcalling the flop is the right play in this situation given that: 1. you would fold if he raised the flop 2. you would bet the pot if a blank falls on the turn.

it's reasonable to think that both of these conditions were met here.

[limon]

i just dont think you can know enough to make this play in big bet poker, this is a limit play. how can he know he has me dominated. how can he know ill pot the turn regardless. all in all with deep stacks i think you have to raise on the flop in these situations. you gotta ask the question: who is the next card off most likely to break? if your going all the way with your hand and you give your opponent a draw to beat you i think the next card is more likely to break you.

[limon]

actually on the turn i would have bet enough to make drawing to a straight unprofitable if i didnt spike my kicker (half pot) and fold if he came over the top of me. once i had top 2 i could very well see him having top and bottom so i wanted to get max value if that was the case and still have the chance he would call with a dominated ace or draw.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
whenever you flat call a flop bet with a hand you're going to the end with you are making a mistake if you're opponent has outs to beat you and the stacks are deep enough that the implied odds are there to draw. yes or no?


[/ QUOTE ]

obviously yes, a purely rhetorical question of course.

I am not one of the ones who prefers to flat call even an aggressive player when I have TPTK. I prefer to raise. I would think the cases where flat calling an aggressive player is better would be the exceptions rather than the rule.

That's just me. I don't like the caller, I like to be the raiser.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

One reason I tend to prefer to raise is because the money in the pot is almost always best if it's won NOW. But because implied odds can be so high in NL poker, sometimes the future money can be much more important than what's in the pot now, which doesn't happen nearly as often, or to near such effect, in limit play. One of my primary objectives in NL is to make sure my opponents are not getting implied odds on me, or at least not enough to make their plays correct. Therefore you won't see me doing much flat calling unless I am the drawing hand.

To support limon's arguement here, when I have TPTK and I wind up being the bettor the whole way, every card that comes off makes me cringe a little, wondering if my opponent spiked his kicker. Therefore I feel much better when my opponent, who I am pretty sure I have beat, bets into me, thus allowing me to raise and wreck his implied odds.

al

[illmatic]

Multi-handed, I think it is a crime to not raise TPTK. Your hand is good, but very vulnerable -- a lot of people are drawing to beat you and you have to charge them. On a completely dead board you can slowplay, fine.

Heads up, you can play slower, but I still prefer to bet/raise. Reason being, if you play it slow then you are telling your opponent you don't have top pair. That's okay, but if you get raised on later streets you don't know what you're opponent's thinking. Do they have second pair and are now real confident in their hand? Or did they spike their kicker. You're going to hurt your brain straining to decide whether or not to call a big bet on the river.

If you tell everyone you have top pair by betting/raising, and then later you get raised big then you can feel better about folding it.

Against an aggressive player, I play the way your opponent did in this pot. No overcards to hurt you and 3 outs probably if he has an A. I think it's +EV overall, but you are allowing your opponent to draw and you should realize it.

Anytime you slow play, you are basically going double or nothing with the pot -- with the odds in your favor. It's like saying, okay, double or nothing next card doesn't help you. Okay double or nothing last card doesn't help you. Sometimes you lose, most times you win. But if you're going to pay off at the end if you get raised, you probably shouldn't slowplay. I hate making big decisions to fold so I usually don't slowplay. Most people do, so people think I'm bluffing a lot and it works in my favor anyway.

Back to this scenario, heads-up if you have AK, flop an A, and you're heads up against an opponent with A10 who is destined to hit his kicker on the turn, chances are you're going to lose a decent amount of money most ways you play it.

later.
illmatic

[tewall]

It seems pretty clear to me you have to mix up your play. If you only call with draws, that will make it pretty easy to play against you when you call. Similarly the reason the weak player's call was so good against limon was that limon was used to him calling down with drawing hands. limon got lucky he spiked the T, as he likely would have kept coming even without it.

So the thing to do is sometimes raise with TPTK and sometimes call, and similarly with drawing hands. No way can it be correct to always do one thing or the other, unless you're playing a dolt. I would guess 2 to 1 would be a decent ratio of playing the strong hands strong and weak hands weak (in other words, raise the draw 1 out of 3 times and call 1 out of 3 times with the TPTK or stronger hand) without taking into account the tendencies of the player.