Cash out curse explained

[magithighs]

This more of a confessional for me, than trying to impart some new knowelege for everyone. However, lets see if you spot the same errors I noticed.

Online story. I begin with a rather modest 50BB deposit. In about a week I build that up to 400BB and move up to the next limit. In two weeks it's up to 800BB (orginal limit) and I'm now up to 5 times my original limit. Run up to 1500BB (original limit) and make that dreaded cash out.

I leave 150BB in my account and think to myself -- hey I did this before it should be rather easy. When I get my cash, I start thinking hmmmm, this is my hobby and if I can do this on a regular basis....oh the things I could buy.

So, I go back to my original limit. I bring my righteous attitude there. I start well enough, but at some point some bad luck creeps in. My foes hit their 20 to 1 shots at the river, or turn. So, I go down 25BB and say, hey why don't I just go up to a higher limit table and quickly I'm down 100BB. Now, I start to think I HAVE TO MAKE my money back so I can keep going at my original pace.

As soon as I say "I need to make back that money" I should just take some money out of my wallet and start burning it. At least I'd get some warmth from the excercise. Better yet, I could walk downtown and give it to some bum -- there's a better chance of him taking the money and turning his life around, making some good investments, striking it rich and then finding me and paying me back tenfold for giving him his big break.

As soon as I say "I need to make money" a transformation happens and I make the worst out of my bad luck and the least from my good luck. It's really wacky, but it happens to me.

Well, I can spot this transformation now. So, I say I have to pack it in, but wait I'm in the big blind and have Q9, with at flop of QQ9. Well, no sense in slowplaying this. Cap the flop, Cap the turn (no over cards to the 9), J falls on the river and I bet out, and I'm raised and call down the QJ winner. Ouch, now I really gotta shut it down for the night. Leave that table and I'm about to leave the other. Wait, I'm dealt QQ -- that's gotta be a good sign. Flop comes QJ6 two hearts (i have none). Cap the flop & Turn -- 3'rd heart hits the river. I check call down the flush. So, now i pack it in and go to bed.

I've given myself a 7 day no play (real money) penalty!


Here's my assessment

1) When I cash I out I don't remember the hard work required to get to 1500BB from 50BB. I see the net result and start to think it was easy.

2) I start thinking if I can win at this rate (it was an amazing 20BB per hour for a month and a half -- every night), I can...well it's easier to do this math than actually earn the money...so, I prefer to do the easy math.

3) Righteous attitude at the tables -- I'm thinking these dudes at the lower limit don't know anything -- after all I've been able to multiply my investment 30 times in a month an a half. Other players on the table don't give a rats ass about me -- the only credibility I have is earned right there. My reputation is only in my mind.

4) I start thinking "I need to make money back" -- this is the worst thing ANY gambler can think

5) Then I start thinking "I can't lose with this hand". It's like the others owe me for my loses -- hah!

[MaxPower]

It can be explained by a statistical concept - regression toward the mean. You had a incredibly high win rate for a while. Eventually your results will have to move towards the mean (or your true win rate).

The other factors you mention might have something to do with it, but even if you fix all the psychological things, your results will eventually regress to your true win rate.

People tend to cash out after a period of exceptional results and that is usually followed by a period of sub par results.

Good luck.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Let's look at the positive side of your experience.

1. You did NOT blame anyone else or the website for your problems. I can't count the number of posters who have said that they have been cheated.

2. You looked VERY hard at yourself.

3. You clearly learned a lot about yourself.

4. You are unlikely to make the same mistakes again.

It was expensive, but you've gotten some valuable education.

Regards,

Al

[magithighs]

Totally understand and believe the regression the the mean. The trouble for me is the psychology behind the regression periods (the dark days) and how it affects my play.

I find this uncontrolable urge to do things I know I shouldn't. I was comforted a little today when I read Phil Hellmuth's 2003 WSOP diary. A quote from the diary "I think he had AK or AA and I really wanted to believe he had AK...but I knew what I had to do...so I folded". The trouble during my dark days is I don't let myself say "I know I have to fold, and then actually fold".

The other part of the regression to the mean is believing that the mean is a constant figure. For some players who don't improve their game, this may be true.

For me, the mean is on a pretty good trend upwards and in positive territory. The only way I've been able to keep it going up is to look for the big gaping holes in my game and fix them. It's really easy when I look back at my horrific plays when I'm on the downswing.

So, for me regression to the mean is not a bad thing as long as it's on a trend up.

Thanks for the feedack!

[magithighs]

Thanks for your comments Al. Always good to know others think I'm on the right track.

Now, I'm back BABY! After my one week no play penalty I got back on yesterday. I knew I was back on, when I made a great read and folded aces on the turn with nary a bet spent there! As soon as that happened, I knew I was back on my game.

It used to be expensive, but this one last time I was able to spot the storm coming and went down in limits. So, I spent my dark period at 1/2 and then .5/1 and then .02/.05. If there was someone looking for me, they must have been thinking I'd be a great mark when I play higher limits. And as Martha says "that's a good thing".

Anyways, I'm glad to be back at my normal limits. Sure is a heck more fun.

Cheers
Magi

[Al Schoonmaker]

Welcome back.
I think taking a break when you know you're playing badly is an excellent idea. In fact, lots of people have been told to take a break, ignored the advice, and gotten badly hurt.
There will always be another poker game. You were right to get your head back on straight before playing again.
And I believe that your self-critical attitude is one reason you took the break and got back on track.
My series on tilt at cardplayer.com can offer some guidance to anyone who thinks he might be off-balance or who wants to take advantage of other people's being on tilt. Click on magazine, writers, and my name. The first three parts are there now. Part IV will arrive in a few weeks.
Regards,
Al

[poker-penguin]

Great post. I have to agree with you.

Once I cash out, I start thinking I am entitled to other player's money just for gracing them with my presence. Now the games are fishy, but not quite that fishy. So I start throwing my chips around, like I was some WSOP super-hero instead of a glasses wearing 3/6 playing weenie. This of course is a big hole in my game.

That and of course because online poker is rigged and they want to punish you for cashing out [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Gonzoman]

[ QUOTE ]

It can be explained by a statistical concept - regression toward the mean. You had a incredibly high win rate for a while. Eventually your results will have to move towards the mean (or your true win rate).

The other factors you mention might have something to do with it, but even if you fix all the psychological things, your results will eventually regress to your true win rate.

People tend to cash out after a period of exceptional results and that is usually followed by a period of sub par results.

Good luck.



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's quite correct. I think regression towards the mean indicates that after huge positive results, it is unlikely that the same results will continue.

Also, although results will eventually come back to the true win rate, it can't be predicted, and the period right after the cashout isn't any more likely to be 'bad' as any other period of equal length.

Of course, this assumes there aren't any changes in play based on having a good 'run'.

[magithighs]

Many thanks for pointing me to your articles at cardplayer.com . I usually only peruse the articles directly from their home page and didn't dig that deep. Great stuff there and I really like your articles.

I agree with your version of tilt. I call it my "dark period" because I equated tilt with playing too many hands too agressively. My "dark period" is very much in line with your version of "tilt".

I think most players are missing one critical aspect of "tilt". I hadn't thought of it until I read your articles and started to think of my "flashpoints" which sent me on tilt. Early in my playing days (about 2.5 years ago), I would play well and beat the game for about 1 BB/hr. However, whenever I had a run-in with one person at work they would send me into the deep end. I would have my emotions in check at work, at home, but when I started to play (online), I was pissed and damn-it someone was going to pay for my bad mood --- usually me; big time. Very much what you talked about.

The thing I think is missing from evaluating "tilt" is the addictive side of poker. I think most don't realize the physiological aspects to poker. Gambling is a drug and it's physiological effects have been proven. About 20 years ago, my cousin told me about some experiments she observed on mice or monkeys (can't remember which one). They experiments revolved around getting the animal to "gamble" to get a reward. When the reward was taken away, the animal went nuts trying to recreate the situation.

So, I think this same thing happens with gamblers good and bad -- take away the reward (winning) and the gambler goes crazy trying to recreate the situation (making bad plays, playing too many hands, trying anything to get back to the winning). It would be great if you could write an article on the addictive side of gambling and how it affects ones play.

I think this is what was behind my tilt period. It was my uncontrollable urge to recreate my winning period. It was like I was addicted to smoking and I had gone a few hours without a smoke. I would do anything to get one. It's been twenty years since I had a smoke, but I still crave it once in a while -- unbelievable how much power it has over me after twenty years.

I would be happy to help you do some research if you wanted to do an article on this topic.

Cheers
Magi

[Al Schoonmaker]

I'd be very interested in reading that research. If you could give me a reference or, better yet, a hyperlink, I will check it out.
I doubt that I would write about addiction. It's abnormal psychology, and I don't have any training in that area. One of the most important lessons one learns in grad school is to stay in one's own area of expertise. Some of the other psychologists who come here might be able to offer insights into addiction that would escape me. In fact, if you put the hyperlink here and cut and paste the abstract, we might get a great thread going.
Thanks for your suggestion, and I am NOT saying that I will not write about it. Just that I am cautious. If I can write intelligently and usefully about it, I might do it.
Let's see what other people have to say about this subject.
Regards,
Al