How Experts Make Decisions under uncertainty #2

[PokerHorse]

I realize that this should probably go into the psych section, but since I put the first part here, I will put this as well. i hope not to offend or piss anyone off.
I'm going to cover basically how we might speed up the implicit learning process as it relates to poker, and other
strategies that we can use to create sometimes dramatic increases in performance. no,.....not that type of performance. well,.... maybe. Anyway here goes.

I should start by saying that some of these things you have probably read about etc. I used to pooh pooh this stuff, so I understand if your not ready to absorb.It took me a while.

There is a scientific quest to find ways to speed up implicit or subconsious learning in various fields that
require fast decision making. From sports to trading stocks to poker to fighter pilots.
The one item that seems to be working to a certain extent is to increase the stress level of the participant to a level that requires intense concentration, yet not so high
that the person gets over stressed. studies are showing that this can markedly help implicit learning.
For poker it seems obvious.If you are playing 3-6 or 6-12, for example, I would reccommend some 1hour sessions at 20-40
or if you play in a small town, whatever the high level is
above where you are playing. in these sessions your concentration will be high. I would reccommend plasying no more than an hour, and obviously play conservative to start.
If you truly want to improve this will dramatically improve your game. Why, .. because beside the unconsious adaptations you will gain tremndous confidence as you see
terrible play at the higher levels. But again I would move slowly and play several very short sessions. As you improve
you should advance to a level bettween where you are and the practice level. I play 15-30, 20-40. My implicit sessions are at 40-80 and sometime pot limit(although its a different game).
Again, remember we all have "confirmation bias", so if you find yourself calling when you know you are beat or continue leading with less than a very strong hand when you are getting re-raised etc. work on adapting to the new info coming at you .
The one thing that stunts implicit learning is emotion. getting too excited or upset in poker will kill your game. This has been talked about over and over and over, but maybe it will help some of you if you know that emotions can and will block the learning process as well as lose you pots.
There have been over 500 published studies on performance,
that pinpoint traits that succesful people have in almost every field. The top traits that you can use in poker are

Goal setting is the number one success factor, believe it or not. goals set by performance and not results do better.
So goals of mistake proof poker with a actual written list of mistakes to avoid will work best. These goals have to be written in order to be effective. You have to look at this as a business if you want to succeed. Doing so will also help to eliminate some emotions.
The other giant trait that successful people have is a true believe in themselves. This gets difficult, but some people naturally have this trait, but many believe to the point of obnoxious arrogance. i'm sure that you can think of a few well known tourney players that are extremely arrogant.This true believe that they have, that they are actually better than anyone else, is probably the one leading factor that helps their success, believe it or not.
The rest of us need some mild brain washing to get there hopefully without the arrogance. My choice is the age old psycho-cybernetics.(the original positive self talk format)
But it cant hurt to use some sports psychology techniques etc in order to gain confidence. I have been resistant for years to these type of things but the goal setting has truly helped me, so I'm on to the brain washing after years of resistance.
I know these little tid bits might have been disscussed before but just know that they arent opinions,.. they have been proven to be effective.

good luck

[SA125]

"The one item that seems to be working to a certain extent is to increase the stress level of the participant to a level that requires intense concentration, yet not so high
that the person gets over stressed. studies are showing that this can markedly help implicit learning."

The great golfer Ben Hogan, in his famous book "The Five Fundementals..." talks about positive stress being better than being totally relaxed when playing under pressure.

"The other giant trait that successful people have is a true believe in themselves"

This statement leads me to believe it's Izmet or Abdul, rather than S or M, authoring this post. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

[astroglide]

this is not abdul, ds, izmet, or mm.

[SA125]

"this is not abdul, ds, izmet, or mm."

That's like pointing to the desert and saying "it's sand." [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[sweetzer]

I have really enjoyed your two posts. As to written goals, and believing in yourself, those are the stepping stones. One interesting related item is the system of rewards and penalties. Mike Caro had an interesting concept a few years ago of the penalty for following through with a play which one knew did not have a positive expectation: the penalty was having to stop the playing session right then ant there. The penalty is of course the entertainment value in doing what we also consider a business, and if we are not going to run it as a positive expectation business, then we have to give up the entertainment as well.

[PokerHorse]

first, no this is not adbul(mike), or izmet("its obviously not those two")
Should i be upset? Not about izmet- Good example of Raw
overstated confidence.

My opinion, since these names were brought up. mike is smart, but his writings fit under the qualifications written by S&M as to altering your play once in a while.
I would not adhere to his starting hand writings, except as an occassional diversion. Instead of offering a true contribution to the poker community he has spent much time trying to find fault with S&M's writings. he wows everyone , since he is intelligent, and we are all starved for interesting info,and a good debate is sometimes fun, but
in the long run, I personally after reviewing the info feel he hasn't offered as much as he is capable of offering.
Izmet,not an expert at all, but has that one ingredient just written about. I'm not trying to go negative here, but someone like John Feeney I believe has offered quite a bit more to poker that is actually usable than those other two combioned.
good luck and thanks for the responses

[DcifrThs]

Very good stuff here PokerHorse!

And to prove what you are talking about, go read the post entitled "some 5/10 hands to think about" or something like that. specifically the "confimation bias" is prevalent on the turn in hand one. hero did not properly adjust his possible distributions of hands based on new info=the 3bet after his c-r. he STILL stuck with what he THOUGHT was his opponent's hand on the flop.

in any case conditioning is key and I know I still lack some of it and see myself making poor plays occasionally and this SERIOUSLY hurts my win rate. i calculated it over a few sessions and found that even though i was winning and beating the game for about .5 a big bet an hour i was COSTING myself about .25-.5 big bets an hour in poor play (just goes to show how bad some people play that i can make those errors and still win).

it is shocking to find out how much that extra call or incorrect raise/pay off will cost, especially when trying to eek out small edges over time.

good post and hopefully we'll all keep learning.
-Barron

[PokerHorse]

I'm learning too.One stupid play can ruin your session for sure, especially when it's a grind it out type of sessions where you don't get many opportunities. Thanks for your response
good luck