Did I over play this

[waveball]

Stars 100+9 18 players left 9 places pay. 300/600 I have around 4000 in chips in the bottom third of the feild. I am on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. One MP limper I raise to isolate. Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] He makes a min. bet. I push. he thinks and calls with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. River is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I am out. I've been thinking hard about this hand and was wandering what everyone else thinks about it. Thanks in advance.

[swimfan]

hey waveball,

Think I may have played with you before. Anyway, how much did you raise? How much did MP have? If 3x, you might as well go all in, which makes everything a moot point. Wouldn't like a min-raise with your chip count and hand combination. Assuming you raised 3x, pot is at around 4,000, and you have 2200 left. With the flop, pot, your chip count no question all in. MP's bet tells me he has a piece of the flop and at least a straight or flush draw, and he will call you regardless. If you just call, see the heart, you're left with 1600 at 600/50 ante blinds. You're around a 60% fav to win or tie at the flop, gotta go and pray. Just bad luck in the end; you made the right flop decision.

[CrisBrown]

Hi waveball,

Uggh ... tough situation. There's no way he's going to lay down top pair and a straight flush draw. You're ahead, but not by much (twodimes makes ~7:6 including ties), and he easily had the correct odds to draw.

If I'm doing the math right, there was 1350 in the pot before anyone acted (blinds and antes), and you and he added 3600 (3xBB each), for a pot of 4950. It was 5550 with his min-bet, and you had only 2400 left to push in, leaving him 1800 to call a 7950 pot, better than 4:1 pot odds as a 7:6 underdog.

So you're in a situation where:

* You have the Broadway straight.
* You may already be beaten, as he may already have a flush.
* If he has a pair and one Heart (as he did), you're less than a 2:1 favorite and the pot odds clearly favor him if you push at the flop.
* If he has only one Heart, the pot odds still favor him if you push at the flop.
* If you call at the flop, intending to push at the turn, he's almost certain to bet his top pair even if he misses, so the pot odds will still favor him (better than 7:1 as a 5:1 dog) if you push.

So you may already be beaten, and even if you're not, the pot odds favor your opponent, no matter how you play it.

I think this analagous to having a small pair vs. a pre-flop raise ahead of you: you're either a small favorite or a big dog, and even if you're the small favorite, the pot odds would favor your opponent's call. So the better play is to fold.

Likewise, I think the better play here was to fold, even though you were slightly ahead at the time.

Cris

[Bozeman]

Sure you are a small favorite or a big dog, but there is so much money already in that folding is not an option. But better to just push preflop unless this is limit.

[swimfan]

Please tell me your kidding with the better play to fold...

In my analysis, I was wrong, pot is at 5,000, miscalc'd. And I'm an actuary, lol. Pot odds be damned, you must look at the whole picture. First and foremost, he has 2200 at the time of the flop. What are the odds other player has two hearts? Well he threw in a min-bet. If MP has two hearts and skill, he either checks or bets more aggressively. If he has two small hearts, I would think he would bet more aggressively. With MP's min-bet, I'd figure I have the strongest hand at the moment. So you have two options: Fold and have 2200 at 600/50 ante good for almost 2 orbits from where you sit (reduces your attempts at stealing), or go all in with the best of it and come out with 9,300. Hmmm, bet 2200 to get 9300 when I'm 53/47 to win, i'll take that every time.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Craig,

I don't doubt that you're correct here. I read Greg's post about how when there's a lot of money in the pot, you're almost always getting pot odds to push in. And yes, while his opponent had correct odds to call, he was still getting good odds for a bluff-catcher, etc.

I guess this is one of those situations that troubles me, because in fact there is no "correct" way to play it. If he pushes, his opponent is correct to call, which means he loses (in FTOP terms) unless his opponent folds. But by the same token, it's clearly an FTOP mistake to fold what may be the best hand to what may be (and was) a semi-bluff.

It seems like no matter what he does here, his opponent is going to be correct ... and he just has to push and pray. I guess that's what it comes down to, but it's an awfully frustrating position to find one's self in....

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi swimfan,

See my reply to Craig. This is one of those troubling cases where there really isn't a "good" play, that is, one that will force an opponent into a difficult decision and a likely mistake. This is I guess one of those "push and pray" situations, and I really hate those.

That having been said, not knowing his cards, I'd likely have folded, fearing he'd already made his flush and not wanting to call my money off on a second best hand. But that may be because every time I've faced this situation lately, my opponent has indeed had the hand. (I've had a terrible run of this situation lately, which I've posted on the SNG Forum.) So at this point, I'm leery of betting what may be a second-best hand ... which is why I'm taking a few days away from playing. Having run into too many of those monsters under the bed, I need some time to regroup.

Cris

[waveball]

Thanks guys yall are an amazing resource for the young card player. I think there is no way i should folp to his weak lead..it did cofuse me but if he had a flush already then he would have checked or bet aggresively. With the amount of money in the pot pushing was my only option. But what about my play prefolp. I raised 3X BB which was rather weak with one limper in already. I should have raised more or even better not play A 10 off when I can't be the first in.

[swimfan]

Sorry, started posting before the replies...

I hear ya, I agree it's very frustrating and is a "push and pray". Think it's dependant on chip count and blinds, but it does stink when you take skill out of the equation. Best of luck when you return; if you're Seinfeldian about these things, you'll turn up the nuts when the second best (dead) hand bets into you more frequently. My handle on Stars is DISwimmer by the way.

[jedi]

Does anyone also consider that the pre-flop raiser might also have AT, with one heart, and is freerolling on this one? Or is that just looking at monsters under the bed?