Should I raise the turn when the better is all-in?

[Guido]

2/4 at Paradise, full table. I have A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in CO. UTG + 2 open raises, MP 3-bets, I cap, button cold calls, blinds fold, UTG + 2 and MP call. Four to the flop for 17.5SB.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MP bets out, I raise, button folds, UTG + 2 cold calls, MP 3-bets, I cap, UTG + 2 calls, MP calls. Three to the turn for 29.5SB.

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MP bets, I called, UTG + 2 called. The MP went all-in and at that time I didn't want to drive UTG + 2 out that's why I called. I think that was a mistake considering the big pot. What do you think? Should I raise or just call?

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet, he calls.

What do you think about the turn play?

Thanks,

Guido

[Alobar]

I may or may not raise. He's obviously got something he likes well enough to raise pre flop and keep cold calling with on the flop, so he might call your raise on the turn too. If your sure it will drive him out, I wouldn't do it as long as you think you have him beat. He's prolly drawing to a 2 outer, and the main pot is going to a showdown, which you may or may not win, so I'd want him to stick around so you can at least get a little cash should you lose the hand. But in this area (dealing with an all in) there are way better people here to give insight on this hand, so hopefully one of them chime in.

[joker122]

UTG + 2 appears to be drawing to something (most likely a straight) in which case raise is obviously the play, as you need to make him pay to see the cards. That, or he's hoping his nines, what he thinks is top pair, will hold up. Either way, you most likely have the best hand, so you need to get your money in there.

[Dylan Wade]

Tough choice. Your choice depends mainly on how likely you think you'll get called if you raise.

Assuming you're always ahead of UTG+2, and he will always call the river, if there's a 66% chance he'll fold or greater, you should just call. Otherwise raising is more profitable.

I get this from 3*( 1 - %fold ) + 0*(%fold) = 1*(100%)

Very very rough estimate. I'd guess if you worked in the chance to fold on the river, and the chance that you're behind, the % will drop to aorund 50-50.

[Ed Miller]

MP bets, I called, UTG + 2 called. The MP went all-in and at that time I didn't want to drive UTG + 2 out that's why I called. I think that was a mistake considering the big pot. What do you think? Should I raise or just call?

This is not even remotely close. Pot is huge, and the bettor is all-in! Raising is absolutely positively mandatory.

[Ed Miller]

Tough choice. Your choice depends mainly on how likely you think you'll get called if you raise.

Guys, this is totally wrong. It isn't a tough choice, and it doesn't really matter how likely you are to be called.

You have a vulnerable hand, and the pot is huge. Furthermore, you aren't exposed to a 3-bet from the original bettor. You could not be approaching this situation in a way that is more wrong.

[Dylan Wade]

I guess what I was thinking is... we are beat against the all-in player at this point. So our action on the turn is was about trying to find the best move in a zero pot.

But really... I don't see any hand that MP could have that would cap pre-flop and have us beat at the turn. Maniacal 99? So you're absolutely right. We still have a stake in this pot...

Would you agree with what I said if the flop was, K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[CMangano]

Any time a guy is running very low on chips, you have to start to think that he could be getting desperate. If he has any piece of this board he will surely be willing to commit all his chips. I agree with the poster formerly known as majorkong, you have to raise here. Best case scenario is the other player folding and you getting a showdown with a desperate all-in player.

[Dylan Wade]

good point!

[Ed Miller]

I wouldn't agree under any circumstances. The pot is way too big to be playing guessing games about what the allin guy has. You have no business trying to suck the player behind you in for an extra bet or two. Too much is at stake.