John Kerry have any chance at all at Presidency?

[Redhot_man]

Even if he does okay in the popular vote, he will still likely be slaughtered in the electoral college. I dont think the general public really cares that Bush blatantly lied about Iraq, hell it was pretty damn obvious they were lying their asses off before we went over there in the first place.

What odds is Vegas offering on the election?

[Ed Miller]

I think the Democrat has a good chance to win the election. In fact, at this point, I wouldn't bet on Bush at even money.

If the election were held today, I think Bush would win, barely. I don't see a lot of opportunities for him to gain support between now and the November, but I see a lot of opportunities for him to lose it.

[Clarkmeister]

The last time I looked Bush was at -181 vs whoever got the Democrat nomination.

[Poker blog]

Hey Ed --

You may be a good poker player, but you're no political handicapper. Wanna put your money where your mouth is?

[CrackerZack]

I'll take bush at even money if you want. hell I'd give you 5 for 4.

[TripDuck]

I am not willing to bet, but I think Bush wins this election narrowly, again.

[Taxman]

So what are your odds and your reasons behind them?

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Ed --

You may be a good poker player, but you're no political handicapper. Wanna put your money where your mouth is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. In 1996, Dole was beating Clinton in the polls. In 1984, Mondale was beating Reagan in the polls. In both situations, the challenger was high in public popularity due to locking up the nomination. But, when Election Day came, people voted for the incumbent of a good economy.

Reagan and Clinton both also had problems. Reagan was heavily criticized for his management of relations with the Soviet Union and the lack of any summit meetings during his administration. Clinton had both policy and personal attacks against him. Both Presidents lost big in the mid-term congressional elections.

I think 2004 will be a lot like 1984 and 1996.

[AceHigh]

If you go back 4 more years, to Jimmy Carter, you would have an even split between incumbants winning and losing.

Latest polls have Kerry 49%, Bush 46%.

Bush wouldn't have gone on Meet the Press if he didn't think he needed to.

My guess is it's going to be close and the smart money will/should go with the better odds.

[andyfox]

"people voted for the incumbent of a good economy."

Two million less payroll jobs now than when Bush took office. If Kerry wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois, he wins.