Another leak, or proper play?

XPac · #1 02-09-2004, 03:39 PM

1/2 PP

Dealt J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG+1

UTG calls, I raise, LP calls (and is all in), BB calls, UTG calls, 3 to the flop for the side pot.

FLOP
8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to me, I bet, BB calls, UTG folds.

TURN
5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet, BB calls

RIVER
9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB checks, I check?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I feared he was check calling me with top pair, which would've given him his trips on the river. I figured this is one of those situations where you are only going to get called (or raised) on the river bet if you are beat? Or am I misapplying this?

Henke · #2 02-09-2004, 03:43 PM

I think you are misapplying it, unless you have a strong read that BB is weak-tight. Otherwise he probably suspects you are bluffing with some A, and calls you down with bottom-pair.

Trix · #3 02-09-2004, 03:45 PM

Bet river.

StellarWind · #4 02-10-2004, 01:17 AM

Henke,

I agree with what you say, yet I don't know what to do. He has a 9, 8, 3, or small pocket pair and he is going to call. But you lose two bets if he checkraises with a 9 versus winning one bet against an 8 or 3.

The preflop action was very strong sounding. If this guy is at all choosy in the BB, then I have to think he is a lot more likely to have a 9 than a 3. We also know a 9 would still be here at the river whereas we only suspect that an 8 or 3 would hang around.

If absolutely any two will do, then the 8's and 3's outnumber the 9's 6-2 plus he could have a pocket pair. Betting could be +EV.

But if you are up against a decent player it's probably a little too dangerous.

HajiShirazu · #5 02-10-2004, 06:11 AM

Bet the river. You don't want to see the 9, but he could be calling you down with a lot here, because this is Party Poker and players like to make calls like this. We all hate it when they make their two pair on the river after calling all the way with bottom pair, so we have to make them pay the times that they don't make it. And look on the bright side, if he called your raise with 83, you just counterfeited his two pair. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Zetack · #6 02-10-2004, 08:38 AM

I say you bet the river. He has yet to show any strength and I think if he has a nine he's much more likely to lead out the river than check--he's gonna be real afraid that you back off here and he misses a bet with his trips.

Also its real hard to see what nine hand he called a raise with. Ok, he was in the blind and it is micro limit so he could have just about anything. But if he had a nine and any kind of kicker at all you would expect him to have bet at you earlier.

There are definitely times to back off, but he hasn't said to you he has a nine, he hasn't said he has two pair--go ahead and put the bet in here.

My thoughts on the only going to get called if you are beat theory is that it doesn't apply so much in micro-limit and in micro-limit heads up situations even less so. From his perspective you could be trying to win the pot with A-K and he's gonna catch you with his 2-3 suited damnit! Heck he may have A-K and think that maybe, just maybe its good....(well heck he could have anything ya know...)

--Zetack

TheRake · #7 02-10-2004, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He has a 9, 8, 3, or small pocket pair and he is going to call. But you lose two bets if he checkraises with a 9 versus winning one bet against an 8 or 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stellar,

I think you misunderstand the value of the river bet. Sure he could have a 9 and c/r you on THIS hand, but poker is about more than just one hand. As you know in poker we attempt to manipulate odds to be in our favor over a long period of time. By betting the river in this type of situation consistantly over a long period of time you will be called by worse hands far more often than you will be check raised by someone with a 9. This is value betting, because there is value over the "Long Run".

TheRake

josie_wales · #8 02-10-2004, 02:11 PM

Well put therake, well put.
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

StellarWind · #9 02-10-2004, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think you misunderstand the value of the river bet. Sure he could have a 9 and c/r you on THIS hand, but poker is about more than just one hand. As you know in poker we attempt to manipulate odds to be in our favor over a long period of time. By betting the river in this type of situation consistantly over a long period of time you will be called by worse hands far more often than you will be check raised by someone with a 9. This is value betting, because there is value over the "Long Run".

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand all of that. I just think there is at least a 1/3 chance he has a nine for his previous actions. If I'm right then betting the river is a long-run money loser because it costs two bets to be wrong.

Now I see from the other posts that the majority view is that the risk of a nine is much lower than that. Maybe they're right. Maybe I should show BB less respect.

I think my continuing amazement at what people call with is a problem I need to work on.

colehard · #10 02-10-2004, 04:05 PM

So using the 1 in 3 reasoning, you win 1 bet twice and lose 2 bets once. Therefore you have 0 EV

Now, however you can add in other hands they may call with: any decent A high, possibly any K high. Perhaps a bad str8 draw that paired the 5 on the turn. Now you have positive EV.

Is this logical?