Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-22-2002, 04:39 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default flop stats



I have been recording my fops while playing online.

here are my stats:


hole cards not paired:

top pair: 16.8%

2nd pair: 5.76%

3rd pair: 4.45%

2 pair: 1.83%

trips: 1.83%

other: .79%

nothing on flop: 68.6%


Pocket Pairs

trips: 9.02%

no trips: 91%


it seems to me that i should not be missing the flop 68.6% of the time.

Can some let me know what the odds are for catching nothing on the flop


thanks
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-22-2002, 07:29 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: flop stats



you will not get a pair 67.6% of the time.


this is determined by multiplying the chances of three times in a row not hitting one of the 6 cards you need.


so


44/50 * 43/49 * 42/48 = 67.57%


SD
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-22-2002, 09:22 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: flop stats



thanks sd player, but does this take into acount the fact that you can flop two pairs, trips, str8 etc.


thanks
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-23-2002, 12:58 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: flop stats



well you have to hit one pair to hit two pair, so it does take that into account.


the chance to flop a str is well less than 1%, so it doesn't have a large effect on whether the % of time you are missing seems to low or not.

your % doesn't seem that low unless you've played hundreds of millions of hands.


if you told me the # of flops you've seen i can even calculate the likelihood of hitting that many or less flops.

(you just need to use the binomdist function in excel)
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 08-23-2002, 05:13 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: flop stats



You are also counting the fact that you missed the flop when you go in with a pair. I Think SDs probability is for two unpaired cards. This would explain your slightly higher miss rate due to the less frequent matches on the flop for paired cards. Remove those from your population and you would probably approach his # quite closely.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 08-24-2002, 12:56 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: flop stats



Bubmack, i did seperate pocket pairs from the calculations. I am not concerned with my %, i was just wanted to know the odds of totaly missing the flop with two not paired hole cards.


As i thought it was approx. 2 out of 3 flops


thanks
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.