Mirage 6-12, JJ in BB

[rharless]

Just before I left for Vegas, I had read a few posts about (what I thought is) a similar hand to this one. Particularly, from Kong "once the pot gets big, you want to win it, and bet, bet is not the way to win this pot."

A wonderful, wonderful game. I have never sat in a bad Mirage 6-12. Very loose passive. One good player at the table is directly across me. The button is drunk and throwing chips around.

I am in the BB and I have red JJ.

Preflop: Six callers, the SB folds. I raise, everyone calls (as expected).

Flop: 4s 6s 7c

Yucky. I expect many, if not all, to call if I just bet out. So I check and mentally coerce an LP player to cooperate with my intended check-raise.

It gets checked all around. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Turn: [4s 6s 7c] 9d

I feel so not destined to win this hand. Do I attempt to check-raise again? I decide no. I bet. I get two callers. Well, this was a pretty good result at least -- two is much better than six.

River: [4s 6s 7c 9d] Qc

OK, well, this is not the BEST card, but really with this board -- there are tons of river cards I won't like.

Even I can make this value bet, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So, I bet. Drunk button calls.

How did I do?

[ElSapo]

I'm inclined to bet here. There's no gaurantee anyone will bet since you're the only one putting in significant action pre-flop. And when someone raises from the BB and then checks a flop like that, it just smells like check-raise.

If you had some reason to think an LP player might bet, I'd like it more. As it is, maybe bet and hope to get raised in LP so you can check-raise the turn.

Some players can spot this check-raise coming on the flop. I think I bet it here.

[AviD]

Two spades on the board, I'd be betting the turn and making the flush drawers pay. Aggressives will likely value raise, re-raise to see how serious they are.

The turn is a good card, doubt anyone is on 58, 8T, etc. Here your bet after a 3-bet or bet out flop would have good strength and would likely push out the drawers. What you don't want is what came on the river...and overcard. But a Q is better than an A or K. I'd still bet the river and call down if raised.

No one is betting...so they are likely drawing or slowplaying (but with that board I doubt the latter). If you don't bet out (especially on the flop), you don't know where you stand and are susceptible to a CR later down the road. Make the drawers pay. JJs are a great opening hand...but can quickly disintegrate as the board progresses. Get your bets in and make the calling stations pay. Even if one beats you out, five others are paying to call.

[rharless]

FWIW, I think only the good player in MP who called could detect a desired check-raise. The rest were truly in Unaware-land.

But, I did have no guarantee that anyone would bet the flop. I was pretty sure the two immediately to my left would not bet because they were very much "bet top pair or better, check everything else" (should have included this originally). I'm basically just putting all my eggs in a basket hoping that one of the later 4 callers might throw a bet out there.

[rharless]

Aggressives will likely value raise, re-raise to see how serious they are.

No one at this table is going to raise me on this flop even with QQ, except possibly the one good MP player. The table is very passive. Very little draw betting.

I understand that betting the flop is certainly the standard line of play, and quite possibly the best one, but I disagree with "If you don't bet out (especially on the flop), you don't know where you stand and are susceptible to a CR later down the road."

I know where I stand on this flop. I do not lose any information by checking the flop. Anyone who flops two pair or better will definitely bet here. Anyone who flops one pair or a draw will check here in fear of not understanding what is going on. The only not in this mold is MP-good-player, who probably won't try too much tricky here given there's 7 players in the hand.

Also, as first to act, I can't be c/r'ed [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[rharless]

Anyone who flops one pair or a draw will check here in fear of not understanding what is going on.

I just realized as I typed this that my hopes for a flop C/R are really dismal, because this is entirely true. I think only MP, or maybe drunk button, will bet a lesser hand than mine on the flop. Anyone else who bets (at this particular table) can probably beat my overpair.

[AviD]

Hehe, the CR I meant in general...and you seem to have some good reads on the players and had a reason for the check. But why LET them outdraw you, if you know their checks mean they are on a draw? Make em pay for it...unless you are gambling for the bigger bet on the turn (looking for a CR yourself) assuming an overcard or flush/straight draw doesn't land.

Were you simply looking for the bigger bets on the turn? Anything make you think they were passive enough to call the turn bet for a look at the river? You have the best reads as you were there, but I think you could have gained some SBs on the flop and some BBs on the turn.

I guess I've gotten burned so much by drawers lately that I'm ardent on making them pay to outdraw me. Perhaps overly straight forward and albeit a correct way to play, but perhaps not the most profitable in the long run? Something I've been wondering lately is if my aggressive flop plays winning small pots is the most ideal approach given solid playing hands (even post flop) with SOME exposure to being outdrawn but smaller odds (being outdrawn) than winning with it. I'm wondering if in such cases I should be slowplaying some of these hands for turn/river bets.

[ElSapo]

Were you simply looking for the bigger bets on the turn?

No, he was looking to win the pot. He hopes that by check-raising a late bettor, he will drive out overcards who would have called a single bet.


Christ. I just got called down by a loose-agressive borderline maniac who had queen high when I bet the end on a busted draw. I'm an idiot. Or at least I fele like one right now.

Don't take advice from me.

[AviD]

LOL I see it now, but you are depending on a late bettor and gambling in a sense that someone earlier won't bet. Something about that gambling aspect doesn't "feel" right...or is it generally a good play that I should look into adding to my arsenal?

Such a play seems destined (at least half the time) to backfire...where you are stuck calling an early bet (since a CR won't be effective anymore, but you could raise for value hoping an OC doesnt come on the river)...but you are also provoking players to call in this situation (again I'm saying half the time). Is that necessarily what you want here? JJs are a solid starting hand...but as the board progresses...you can get into some serious trouble. I'd prefer to get some SBs and maybe a BB or two on the turn.

But, I understand the reasoning on the approach...just not convinced it is the best with JJ.

[rharless]

My objective, with the 7BB(-rake) preflop pot, is just to win it as soon as I can. That was part of the reason I posted. I don't know the best way to win this pot. "Once the pot is big, your job is to win" so the saying goes. Should I (a) bet, bet, or (b) bet, then try to C/R a non-spade turn, or (c) try to c/r the flop?

Don't you ever feel like you are just flailing away, with a $6 bet into a $80 pot? I want everyone to fold so bad that it hurts. But who is folding? If they are folding, it's probably incorrect, which would be good, but I really don't think anyone is folding. One could fold 22/33 in EP getting 15:1 or so. Other than that, you have a 5 in hand and six/eight straight outs, a pair with the board plus five twocard/trips outs, or six overcard outs, or four gutshot outs, or the mother: 9 flush outs and probably overcard or straight outs for good measure. It seems like A2/22/33 are the only hands who should fold against my flop bet here.

I do think in this case waiting till the turn bet forced more to fold, but that wasn't my intent when checking the flop.

edited to correct PF pot from $70 to $80, oops