AK UTG

[naphand]

Now I'm in the mood to post some hands...this appears a straightforward hand but gets tricky...

6-handed Party $1/$2. BB is a complete moron who calls anything to the River and rarely raises, CO is LAG to a degree (overplays his hands), Button and SB are reasonably selective but poor post-flop.

I am UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and open-raise

naphand raises, MP folds, CO folds, Button re-raises, SB folds, BB calls, naphand caps, Button calls, BB calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

This flop looks good to me, and I play fast to make the draw (if) pay.

BB checks, naphand bets, Button calls, BB raises, naphand re-raises, button calls, BB calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets, naphand calls, Button calls.

The flush card has hit, and BB plays this like he has hit it, by betting out. I am not sure, but the call from the Button convinces me he does not have the flush.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets, naphand folds, Button calls.

The fact that the BB bets again convinces me my Aces are beat, he either has 2-pair or the flush. The button would only call with a strong hand here (on the Turn) so I figure I am beat and fold this.

Comments on my play? And any ideas on what the Button and BB had? Would you play this any different?

Results later. Thanks in advance.

[AJo Go All In]

this is one of the worse mistakes you can make in poker. terrible fold. even more so given that it's a 6-handed game and you describe BB as a complete moron.

[naphand]

He's a moron as he plays almost anything BUT he almost never raises (or leads the betting).

This is quite normal in the Party $1/$2 and a raise in these circumstances, plus a lead beat inevitably means he can beat top pair. Top pair K kicker is not an invincible hand, and that is all I had.

I accept the thinking behind what you say, and in general I agree, but this was a play I have seen many times in Party and generally a call is a wasted bet. I see lots of players calling TPTK (or even TP weak kicker ... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]) to the River against a player who MUST be holding something better.

He was loose and PASSIVE - against a more aggressive player capable of 3-betting TP then a call down would be correct IMO. But thanks for your comment, it will be interesting to see what others say.

[Ikke]

Terrible, terrible fold.

Let's go through whole this hand based on your assumptions. You say about the BB: "BB is a complete moron who calls anything to the River and rarely raises".

From this I gather that there is no way that he makes 'semi-advanced' plays like check-raising a flushdraw for value here. Yet, you rank the possibility on the flop of him having a flushdraw quite high ("..and I play fast to make the draw (if) pay). This seems a contradiction to your assumption. But, you use the same assumption to support your fold on the river ("...and a raise in these circumstances, plus a lead beat inevitably means he can beat top pair"). Remember that you're getting 1:14.5 (!!!) on the river, so a small uncertainty in your assumption does matter a lot.

Also, your assumption about BB implies to me that he plays irrational, in a way, that it is likely for him to play his hand based on absolute handstrength and not relative handstrength (so taking your likely hand into account). Often, very weak players, when they have a hand, simply bet into you, regardless whether you popped them back on the prior streets or not. So, I wouldnt rule out an ace.

My guess is that BB indeed has a flush, but that the probability of you having the best hand is high enough to call the river (in that case BB is likely to have the ace). If BB had the flush, then your statement about BB being a complete moron who rarely raises (meaning only with very good hands, because you used that to support folding) should be re-assessed. Only that makes it worth calling (if your right that a fold is correct, calling is only slightly -EV).

A few numbers. Suppose your chances of winning is:

1/20: EV=-1*0.95 + 14.5*0.05= -0,225 BB
1/10: EV=-1*0,90 + 14,5*0,10= +0,55 BB
1/5 : EV=-1*0,80 + 14,5*0,20= +2,10 BB

So, if you only win 20% of the times, you cost yourself about 2hours of work by folding (assuming you win 1 BB an hour). While if you fold and your 100% right (which seems more unlikely to me than being less than 80% of the times wrong when you call) you only gain 1 BB. And a high percentage, if not all, of that BB should be regained by the information you acquire (since your focus is going to be on the bad players).

Regards

[stripsqueez]

i think fold is bad

i read your QQ post and K8s post as well as this one - i am struck by the thought that you play in a terrible school

getting advice from this forum is a good idea in trying to evaluate your play, especially if you play in a bad school because such a school will often flatter you - i see lots of players who think they are good poker players when in reality they are average poker players who win in bad schools

advice is good but a far better way to learn is to play in a better school - a low limit player may become very good at winning at that limit and if thats all they wish to achieve thats fine - ultimately though its unlikely that a good poker player will learn enough to get better playing in bad schools such as the one you do

not bashing the pot with QQ, limping with K8s, and making bad folds on the river such as this one will cost you money in the 5/10 6 max games i currently play in - you might still beat the game as there are few good players in this game either - if you played this way in a game that only contained expert players you would likely get slaughtered

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[all_aces]

Naphand,

Here's some great advice I received, and I'll pass it on to you. I don't know how many times it has saved/made me money:

If you're not sure if you should call preflop, you should fold. If you're not sure if you should call on the river, you should call.

Regards,
all_aces

[all_aces]

Naphand,

That advice has served me well, but I should point out that I only play 25-50 or higher. Nonetheless, I think it still works as a 'very' general rule of thumb.

Regards,
all_aces

[HajiShirazu]

Call this one down. You are probably beat, I would say BB likely has AQ or QQ, but after the button just calls the turn, you likely have him beat, and you dont have to be right that often to make calling down the correct play. He could just be trying to bluff you out with a weak ace, I have seen it time and again. If the button raised the turn, I would fold right there, he has the flush and has played like he should have it. But if you start folding whenever the flush card hits, your opponents are going to start bluffing every time it comes, and that's bad news for you.
However, if you are going to fold, and actually, I don't think folding is that bad, because I think this is close enough to a situation where you will almost always be losing, and you have a read on your opponent, fold the turn, never the river. You're dead against a set or a flush, and pretty thin against AQ. You don't have odds to draw out here, plus the button's play seems like that of a likely flush draw (until he calls the turn and river when the flush card hits...)
BTW I hate hands like these. I feel like such a payoff artist sometimes. But in 6 handed, sometimes you have to pay off to avoid being bluffed out in the future.

[naphand]

Button shows J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB shows Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB wins with 2-pair.

Thanks for all your input - it is all appreciated. I know I have to improve my game, and I also realise that a lot of the players on Party $1/$2 are so bad, it is possible to win a lot just by playing average poker.

I am not sure if I am anything of note, playing wise, but I have played about 6,000+ hands at this limit and am winning consistently at 4BB+ per hour. I may be running good but my pokertracker stats do not suggest this, plus I have many days where I am getting rivered, missing my hands etc. and still manage to break even - so perhaps there is hope for me yet.

My aggression needs work, and my understanding of short-handed is basic. That's why I am here. I also have a thick skin, but expect criticism to be justified by alternatives. I really do appreciate these comments, and will try to post hands which are of interest to many, and not just really bad plays by me (because they become obvious when reviewing my play afterwards).

The general advice about folding, I think, is right. But I did have a read on this guy - and that is why I figured I was beat. Yes it was a big pot, and in hindsight (with the calcualtions to prove it) perhaps I need to think more carefully. This time, I did really feel I was beat. The player was not the kind to try and scare people out with just TP - far more likely he will just call it down. He would have called down a raise (representing the flush) for certain. He did have the nouse to bet the flush card - or it may just have been he hoped no-one had it. His call PF with Q5s says a lot - he caught the flop, and to his credit kept attacking it.

I posted this as I feel that the almost automatic call-down procedure most recommend, cannot always be right. Having seen the calcualtions on this I can understand why it is necessary. I just feel that sometimes, with certain players, it is not wrong to fold, even for one bet, as they just will not bet without a strong holding. I have no doubt that folding too much at $5/$10 will get me slaughtered, and that this play looks very bad to players playing those levels. But Party $1/$2 a lot of the players are very passive and loose, with a few more aggressive players thrown in. They do make some crazy plays at times, but by always calling down, my hourly rate gets hurt. Some of the players are so transparent, that I think folds like this can be correct. Although I will admit, that perhaps with the size of the pot, this was not so clever. Someone said, either fold the Turn or call the River, and I see now that those were the preferable alternatives.

I was right, and I was wrong. Thanks for all the comments. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[naphand]

Excellent summary of your thinking. The maths says it all - and even 1/20 wins is not a terrible loss.

The player concerned would pretty much play any two cards that could make a hand (connectors, any 2 suited, any pair, any 2 royals) no matter what happened PF. He would call down with any part of the flop unless the board got really scary.

His calling on the flop and check-raise on the flop smacked of flush draw to me, but I have seen this with 2-pair. His card selection was poor and he almost never released any hand, but perhaps he was not so stupid as to realise when he had a betting hand. This was my read on him, which was right in this case.

That said, your reply has put in context my play in general, which is much appreciated. It is rare for me to fold a River bet in these circumstances, I think my error was not folding the Turn/calling the River. Both plays were better than my actual play.

Your post has given me some food for thought, and will allow me to better judge my options in future. Thanks.