How Big Are Your Swings?

[Vee Quiva]

I have been playing seriously for about 3 months. Mostly Party Poker online and maybe a trip to the indian casino once a month. I started out at .50-1 and have moved up to 2-4 over for the last month.

My question is how big are most players swings. I play about 2 hours a day and have turned my initial $100 into over $700 until the latest downturn. I have leaked away over $300 in the last week on what I feel is just a run of bad cards and some loose players sucking out on the end.

Does anyone play with win goals and loss limits or do you subscribe to the theory that it is all just one long session?

[Nottom]

A 75BB downswing is nothing to really worry about, but it does show why you need a sufficient bankroll.

I don't really subscribe to the whole stop loss thinking, but I think it can be helpful for some at times when you may be tilting and not realize it.

[AliasMrJones]

Similar story here about a month ago. Same time-frame, same size down-swing. It took about 2 weeks, but got back above where I was before starting the downswing. I took advantage of the downswing to look into the math behind needed bankroll and how long and how much luck can affect your profit/loss. Also, to re-examine my play and plug holes.

Its all one long session.

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
A 75BB downswing is nothing to really worry about

[/ QUOTE ]
Anyone who read the thread a few days ago about swings knows that I think this statement is rediculous. 75BB is definately something to worry about, though not as much as the 125BB swings discussed on the previous thread. I believe many players who post here are losing players. This is not necessarily a horrible thing, as most people are new players, and new players tend to lose when beginning to play poker. Just don't attribute a 75BB-125BB downswing to a bad run of cards without doing some serious thinking about your game first.

-ropey

[Bob T.]

A 75BB downswing is nothing to really worry about


Yes it is. We are talking about a player without a lot of experience, who is playing with a bankroll of less than 200 big bets. He doesn't have enough experience to know that he can recover those bets. He doesn't even have enough experience to know for certain that he is a winning player. He also just lost 1/3 of his bankroll.

He should be reviewing his game for leaks. We all have them, but in a newer player, they probably are bigger, and easier to find and fix. Depending on his financial situation, (can he, and does he want to rebuy) he may also want to step back down to 1-2 until his bankroll recovers.

[Nottom]

I stand by my statement that a 75BB downswing isn't a big deal especially if it involved some big suckouts. The bigger issue here is that VeeQ is playing above his bankroll (he probably should have never been playing 2/4 to begin with).

Maybe in this case the loss is a result of the player not being good enough to beat the game. Maybe its not.

[Bob T.]

Nottom, a 75 BB swing isn't a big deal for you. It isn't a big deal for me. For someone with a 175 BB bankroll and a couple of months experience, it is.

[badboy]

I have to agree with Ropey here. 75BB is pretty hefty. I think you probably started off very disciplined and patient. After a nice run of winning sessions, you kind of let go a little bit. Go back to the basics that originally made you a winner. Reread chapters on starting cards, position and free cards. Get back to basics and you'll be fine.

[Nottom]

Like I said ... don't play with a 175BB bankroll.

[fadedblue]

I think this points out how helpful Pokertracker can be. If you have your transcripts, compare your play when you were winning with your more recent play. If you became too euphoric about winning you can start feeling invinceable enough to begin playing with worse starting cards, and hanging on too long.

I think 75BB is fairly major. Are you getting beat by straights and flushes that you didn't see as a possibility? It's easy when you have AA or KK and get one on the flop to go crazy without slowing down to see what might beat you. It's easy to attribute that to a bad run of cards, or a fish getting lucky, but it's really due to you not paying enough attention. That is easy to fall into after a long winning run. Look at the hands that have beat you, I bet you'll find the biggest leak in your game.

Also, don't go by Lee Jones' starting hands, they are flawed in most people's opinion, and will cost you money. Sklansky has much better info on starting hands.

Good luck. Everyone has been there. It really sucks after a long winning session, I know.