100$ Party NL Hand

[Shaun]

Here is a hand that I took some flack for, but considering the situation I thought I made the right play, though it was close. I am the big blind with 10h,9h. MP makes it 6 to go, and gets 2 more callers. 4 of us see the flop, including myself and the small blind. Raiser has 175, I have about 250, and SB has about 200. Flop comes down Kh 2h 9s. SB bets 20 into the 24$ pot.

I think about raising here, but want to see how the pre-flop raiser reacts to a call by me and the SB's bet. I call, raiser makes it 60. 4th player folds.

Now the small blind pushes all-in. I play with the SB all the time and I respect his play, however, I am almost certain of his hand here. He likely has AK and correctly puts me on a flush draw, which normally I would of course let go. But I figure I have 5 more outs against his hand , so I push in as well. The pre-flop raiser thinks for a while (I don't think he expected this!) and then mucks.

My thought process here is that it is likely I am up against two identical hands- AK. If either player has a set, it is more likely to be the small blind, but I don't think he would bet the set straight out into only 3 players with a king on board and risk not getting it paid off, as the raiser could easily lay down queens or worse with this play. No, he would checkraise a set here to allow the raiser an oppurtunity to bet with worse than a king. This is why I am almost certain he has AK. Now the preflop raiser COULD have KK I suppose, but as I am pretty sure there are only 2 kings left, I find that unlikely. I am pretty sure that he has either AA, or AK as well. Sure, he could also have 99 or 22 in theory, but why raise 22 to 6? He is not that kind of player. So it has to be 99 or KK for him to have a set, hands that are less likely given my holding and my read of the small blind's holding.

Thus I figure that my outs warrant an all-in here and I hope for a call from the pre-flop raiser. The way I see it, I am coin flip with AK, but there is also the added chance of the pre-flop raiser calling with a hand that is somewhat dead to improvement, as I figure these two players have similar holdings. This would give me a favorite with a chance to almost triple my stack. Worst case scenario, I am heads up with 60$ extra in the pot and a roughly 50-50 chance of winning the hand. This seems like a profitable play IF I am certain of SB's holding and only he and I stay, and much more profitable if PF raiser calls with his likely AK or AA.

Well unfortunately the PF raiser folded, later claiming he had AA, but the good news is the turn, a jack, gave me more outs, and the river made my flush. I won the pot and then heard it from the table- but I'd do it again in the exact same situation. The small blind indeed had AK (with no heart).

What would others do in this situation? Is it wrong to trust your read so much and then take a 50-50 gamble like this?

[Dentist]

That play took huge balls and if I knew more about NL I'd probably comment, except that I don't and my comments wouldn't help you.

All I can say is that I proabably don't have the balls to make that play, but I agree with your reasoning 100% and as for the way you played it... it sounds pretty good, i just would have a hard time commiting that huge stack to a draw, even if it was a SUPER draw like yours.

[Jon Matthews]

I like the play. If you don't mind the variance and can rebuy without tilting when you lose then why not?

You'll have a wilder table image and if you play well you'll make your money back in the same sitting.

Just remember who it was gave you the flack!

I was playing pretty wild on a 1/2 table the other night, starting with a shortstack intentionally ($40), I built my stack to $70 with lots of steals, reraised all in preflop with 33 and actually got the raisor with KQo (!) to call. I won that, sat tight for a while and called a raise with JJ after limping in EP (now with $135) pretty sure the raise was a steal attempt I check-raised all in (about $125) a $16 bet on the 9-high flop, based on my read of the player - he was sick of my steals it seems (many of which were overplayed legit hands now) and he called all in for $100 with A8s for the nut flush draw, no pair. I won that coinflip (although I think I was slightly worse off with his overcard), I'm pretty sure I was called the last 2 times based on my image and it worked out of the best. Straight-up tight aggressive play from then on was my agenda and I kept it all.

Jon

[bugstud]

some twodimes legwork


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=140726
pokenum -h ac kd - th 9h - as ad -- kh 9s 2h
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s Kh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kd 65 7.20 838 92.80 0 0.00 0.072
Th 9h 480 53.16 423 46.84 0 0.00 0.532
As Ad 358 39.65 545 60.35 0 0.00 0.396

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=140727
pokenum -h ac kd - th 9h -- kh 9s 2h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s Kh 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kd 485 48.99 505 51.01 0 0.00 0.490
Th 9h 505 51.01 485 48.99 0 0.00 0.510

given the dead money it's a no-brainer

[crockpot]

the preflop call is pretty iffy out of position, but you were there and i wasn't.

on the flop, i see the point behind trying to get all your money in, as you're getting good odds. did you click raise or call? if you hit raise, it might have unnecessarily intimidated the preflop raiser into folding, when this doesn't improve your chances of winning the pot by much at all.

[tewall]

I assume the flak was that you should have folded when you were raised all-in. Folding would be 0EV, so the question is whether calling is + or -EV. At the time of your decision, you're getting almost 2 to 1 on an even money shot, assuming it goes heads up and the guy doesn't have a set. If it goes 3 way, you're even better than that. If the raiser has a set and the other guy folds, then you're making a (somewhat small) mistake, but if he has any decent chance of NOT having a set, then calling is easily +EV.

The only spot I might take issue with would be not raising right away, but I like your play better. If I had a smaller stack, like say $100, then I would have wanted to go all-in right away (instead of calling).

[Ulysses]

so I push in as well.

This is the only issue I have w/ your play. You want PFR to call here w/ what you think is AK or AA. First all-in has him covered, so it doesn't matter whether you call or go all-in. But psychologically "all-in" over the top of "all-in" looks more powerful than "all-in" just "called."

Maybe a minor point, but something to consider.

[Shaun]