Party NL 50 -- Good Fold?

[PinkyRingo]

I've been playing at this table for a couple hours, and have about $170 in front of me.

I'm in the BB with Qd 5c. 3 limpers, and I check in. Just over $4 in the pot.

Flop: 4h 5s Qh

I'm first to act, and bet $8 into a $4 pot, thinking, "I'll take my $4 and run, thanks."

Next player to act min-raises to $16, and the other 2 limpers fold it back around to me. This is where i start to ponder... My opponent in this hand is a pretty good player. I've played NL with him enough to have some respect for his game. From what I've seen of him this session, he seems to be playing pretty loose-aggressive, but it's been working for him. I've already seen him run a couple substantial bluffs this session, taking down pots and flashing his cards with pride. But he's not a maniac. He's just knows how to mix it up at the right times.

He started this hand with about $130, so I've got him covered, but there is plenty of money to be won or lost on this hand.

After his min-raise, I put him on a two possible hands:
1) a strong Q (AQ or KQ)
2) a flush draw

The important thing is that I really believed I was ahead at this point. I thought for a couple seconds and then reraised to $40. He immediately moved in for about $115 more.

Damn. He's got a set. Probably a set of 4's. Maybe 5's. I took my full 20 seconds thinking about it, and then mucked.

I thought hard about calling, especially after seeing his loose-aggro play all session. But for him to push in his entire stack like that, I KNEW he must have a set. All of his bluffing earlier was a great set up for this hand, where he flopped a monster.

So...was this a good fold on my part? Anyone call? All comments welcome.

[crockpot]

against most players you have a safe fold here. he wouldn't make this kind of move on any hand you beat, save for maybe Q4 or 54 if he would play those preflop.

also, the fact that he is showing his cards after running big bluffs, indicates he is trying to get paid off on his next big hand. this is an added incentive to fold.

[PinkyRingo]

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he wouldn't make this kind of move on any hand you beat, save for maybe Q4 or 54 if he would play those preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, and I discounted the Q4 and 54 possibilites because I couldn't realistically assume that he would have played either of these hands in UTG+1.

[ QUOTE ]
also, the fact that he is showing his cards after running big bluffs, indicates he is trying to get paid off on his next big hand. this is an added incentive to fold.

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My thoughts precisely. Thanks for your comments.

[JP789]

"I'm in the BB with Qd 5c. 3 limpers"


You never said which position he limped from. 6h3h or 6h7h are other possibilities.

JP789

[Shaun]

Maybe I am a bad player, but I don't think a fold here is by any means the clear play. You overbet into the field from a blind with a board of Q45 with two hearts. Isn't it reasonable for him to think you have less than top two pair? Your opponent may have an overpair, a str8 plus flush draw, or other hands that you are beating. He may have 45. He may also have a set of 4s, true.

Now the fact that you re-raised his mini-raise is probably what lead you to think he must have a strong hand- but consider what it says to him- you are reacting to his mini-raise- a mini-raise does not neccessarily mean a strong hand- maybe he puts you on AQ? Maybe he thinks you put him on KQ or QJ or a flush draw- and now he is letting you know that he has better than those hands. What I'm saying is even if he is a good player, he may still put all his chips in without a set, especially if he has been running over the table. This all depends on his image of you and how you play.

If you have ran your stack up to 170 in the 50$ game, you are happy with that. He has you covered. He can get all of your chips in one hand. You don't want that to happen- it would make you very UNHAPPY. What I'm trying to say here is, you might be looking for reasons to fold against a guy who can take all of your hard work in one hand. Which is not neccessarily bad, it just depends on what you are prepared to deal with. You could also, however, look at this hand as a chance to get paid. You have a sneaky hand- a pretty strong hand, and there are many reasons for him to think that AQ, KK, AA, 45, Q4, 67h, A5h, etc. are good enough to put you to a difficult decision. Like you said, he has been playing loose agressive.

All that said, you can't lose what you don't put in the middle, to quote our favorite poker movie, and it may be best to wait for a better spot. I would probably have lost my a** to his flopped set here though...

[Huskiez]

Seeing that his position was UTG +1, that introduces the likelihood that he tried to limp reraise with AA or KK? Unless he isn't the type of player to do that, but I think if I had AA or KK I might have played it the same way he did, putting you on AQ.

[PinkyRingo]

I appreciate everyone's comments. Shaun and Huskiez, you made some good points. I intentionally failed to mention that I know what my opponent's cards were this hand, as he flashed them as he took down the pot. I wanted to hear some completely unbiased opinions.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I'm still trying to determine whether this fold is a good one over the long run. The answer, I suspect, is "it depends." Probably on the opponent more than anything else.

But I definitely learned something from this post. Shaun and Huskiez made some points in their posts that I realized I had failed to even consider in the heat of moment. An open-ended straight draw + flush draw could have been a possible holding for my opponent, as well as an AA or KK. I failed to seriously consider these possibilities during the hand.

Maybe I thought too much on this hand. Maybe I had a gut reaction and then second-guessed myself. I remember thinking, "I don't want to lose my entire stack on this hand," and "He just raised me $115, he must have a set." Primitive thinking at best. Maybe my cojones just shriveled up when I needed them the most. Before I knew it, my 20 seconds of thinking time had ticked away, and I flail-clicked at the "Fold" button, disgusted.

His hand: Qc 9c