The Experiment (tm) - First Hand

[ZeeJustin]

Sorry this took so long, and I only have one hand for you to today. This wasn't as easy to compile as a thought it would be. I will do more hands, although I'm not sure how many, or how often. Hopefully I'll be able to work out an easy system that lets me get a lot of hands going at once.

Anyway, I dealt about 10 hands out using a real deck of cards, and I decided that this one would be a good one to start the experiment with. I picked this one because I think it could be played many ways, both preflop and after the flop. I simulated this hand using 3 groups of people, and each one played it differently. On top of that, I played the hand out a 4th way when I played it myself. I decided to "disqualify" one of the groups for two reasons. One, it still isn't done yet, and would delay this. Two, a person open raised with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and explained he did this just to mix it up, even though he would not do this in a ring game. I decided that I didn't want any of that, at least not this early in the experiment.

One thing that made this a hastle was having to wait for the crappy hands to fold, so I decided to just ignore my earlier policy of making sure there's a name behind every decision. This shouldn't really affect things.

Here are the guidelines I gave every player before they made a decision. For future hands, refer to these guidelines:

1: Assume everyone at the table is a good winning player, that is most likely tight aggressive.
2: Do not talk about the hand with any 2+2ers until after the results are posted.
3: Do not worry about advertising or making any plays that aren't +ev in the short run, that may be in the long run.
4: If you have aim, please IM me your response. My aol SN is ZeeJustin.
5: Don't overthink decisions. If the answer seems obvious, it most likely is. Most of the decisions will be rather straightforward.
6: To save time, please make multiple decisions in one response. I.e if you open raise on the button, feel free to also add that you will cap if reraised, or even that you will bet or raise any flop. Obviously, I won't tell your opponent this decision was made ahead of time.
7: Each hand (unless otherwise specified) is 10 handed limit hold-em. To simplify things, the betting structure is 2/4, with 1/2 blinds. You can throw in some 0's or funky currencies if it makes this more interesting for you.


Ok, here's the first hand. I think it's more fun if you try to play the hand out yourself. Feel free to post how the hand would have resulted if you were playing for everyone.

Player 1 (SB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Player 2 (BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Player 3: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Player 4: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Player 5: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Player 6: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Player 7: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Player 8: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Player 9: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Player 10: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Here's the roster I chose to go with. For each hand, the first name listed is part of group 1, and the second name is part of group 2. I will change the roster / groups for each hand.


Player 1 (SB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - Varsity Chillin, AceHigh
Player 2 (BB): A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - Homer J. Simpson, Nottom
Player 3: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - Tony Gregg, James282
Player 4: K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - Edge34, ArchAngel71857
Player 5: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - Esspo, Hatchthunder
Player 6: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - GuyOnTilt, Diplomat
Player 7: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - MajorKong, In Tha Cup
Player 8: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - Speck, Bobcards
Player 9: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - Lori, Stripqueez
Player 10: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - Baby Huey, Eugeneel

Here's how group 1 played it:
Folded to Baby Huey on the button who open raises with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB Folds. Homer 3 bets in the big blind. Huey calls.
Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Homer bets. Huey calls.
Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Homer bets. Huey raises. Homer reraises. Huey folds.
Homer takes the pot of 8.25 big bets down with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after hitting his flush on the turn and making the best hand.

Group 2:
Folded to Eugeneel on the button who open raises with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB folds. Nottom 3 bets in the big blind with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Eugene caps. Nottom calls.
Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Nottom checks. Eugene bets. Nottom calls.
Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Nottom bets. Eugene folds.
Nottom takes the pot of 4.25 big bets down with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after hitting his flush on the turn and making the best hand.

I played this hand very differently. I open raised with QJo, and both 88 and AJ in the BB called. I wasn't sure whether or not the 88 should 3 bet or not, but I was pretty confident with my open raise with QJ. Maybe I just lean to Abdul's opening strategies while most players don't. I found it interesting that both Cup and Majorkong folded here.
When I played the hand for myself on the flop, AJ checked, QJ bet, hoping that the flop missed both players. 88 raised. AJ cold called, and QJ had an easy fold despite opening the betting.
On the turn, I led out with AJ because I figured that had I checked, the button would only bet the same hands that he would raise with had I opened, so if AJ opens, he is likely to be able to get 3 bets in on the turn.
I guess the 88 player assumed a king would check raise, and was a little baffled, and was hoping he was up against a 4 or a smaller pocket pair, so 88 called AJ down on the turn and river.

Interesting decisions in the hand:
Should QJo open raise?
If QJo open raises, what does 88 do?
If 88 open raises, does AJ 3 bet or call? If AJ 3 bets, should 88 cap?

Please post any suggestions, thougts, critiques, or comments. Anything well though out is appreciated.

I posted this poll last time, but it didn't get much of a response, so I'm going to repost it.

[Ed Miller]

88 should 3-bet an open-raiser who could have a hand like QJo, and I don't think it's close. You just have to force the blinds out.

Also, in a game full of tough players, there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button. I also didn't think my decision was close.

[stripsqueez]

i enjoy this sort of analysis - i think it was a good idea

a debate about QJo was started in the short handed forum recently - i got expressions of horror that i open raised it UTG regularly, not always, in paradise 5 max games - we all agreed that it is an auto fold UTG in a party 6 max game - i would routinely fold it on this hand but i think its a bit close

the good news about raising 98 of diamonds to "mix it up" is that you got to show it to the table

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Inthacup]

Also, in a game full of tough players, there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button

Agreed. The chances of you getting 3-bet by LP is just too great.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no way in hell that I'm coming in with QJo from four off the button

[/ QUOTE ]

The button is seat 10, and QJ is in seat 7, so it's only 3 off the button. I'm guessing this wouldn't change your stance though.

I knew there would be controversy over this play, which is why I cited Abdul. According to Abdul, you can generally open 3 off-the button with 55, A7s, K9s, T9s, J9s, KJo and QJo. He also states that if the game is very tight (meaning either overly tight, or correctly tight), that any play he suggests making X seats off of the button, you can now make X+1 off of the button. I'm guessing most 2+2ers are very tight, so I'm assuming this means that according to Abdul you can make this play even 4 seats off of the button.

Kong, thanks for your comments. I'm not trying to prove that I am right, nor am I even confident that this is right. I'm just trying to generate discussion.

Also, I should point out that Abdul's opening strategy is obviously not perfect, and certainly does not apply to every game. Even if he claims opening with QJo here is fine, that does not automatically make it correct.

[Nottom]

The more I think about it, the less I like my turn bet. What does everybody else think?

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about it, the less I like my turn bet. What does everybody else think?


[/ QUOTE ]

i am certainly betting 88 if you check to me on the turn - i dont like betting out either as it seems reasonably certain given the betting so far that the button is going to bet the turn, and i want to put as much $$ in as possible

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Nottom]

Yeah I figured if he had nothing, he would fold. If he had something he would bet if I checked. If he had a little something, he might check the turn but call a river bet. Of course I really don't want to give a free card to AK (or a pair) either.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
According to Abdul, you can generally open 3 off-the button with 55, A7s, K9s, T9s, J9s, KJo and QJo.

[/ QUOTE ]



and according to my dog i should be capping with any two cards.. but i have considered the source and decided against it.

[daryn]

yeah i wondered about that. obviously you were worried about giving a free card.. but is that even a valid concern at that point in the hand? eugene had shown some strength by capping on the flop.. maybe you should have let him take a stab at it on the turn and then popped it on him.