SNG JJ in the later stages.

soda · #1 11-14-2003, 09:07 PM

Specific example to address a broader concept.

I have T800 in chips. We are 5 handed. UTG has T750 in chips and tourney leader has T5000 - he calls with any reasonable hand and has been hitting everything.

Blinds are 50/100.

UTG pushes all in. He's reasonable, but with my JJ I likely have him dominated to one overcard or an underpair. I can't discount a coin flip or QQ, KK, AA obviously, but he needs to make a move and will do so with a reasonable holding.

What is my best play here? Reasonably - can I muck Jacks? I'm excellent at staying alive and picking up pots without a flop, but I keep busting out when I actually have to see a flop. If I fold, then I'm 4 handed if UTG busts out and BB had slightly less chips than I did. Does this new info lean me towards folding?

Clearly I can fold 66 here if I want, but what about 88, TT, JJ? QQ? KK or AA, I'm going with it. Probably with QQ too, but JJ starts to seem sketchy. I MUST win the hand or I'm done. What do you think about this one?

Thanks - soda

ps - UTG had AT, Table Leader called with 66. The flop brought a 6 and the river an A. I probably win this hand less than half the time and slightly over 1 out of 3.

Bozeman · #2 11-14-2003, 10:24 PM

4 handed you can maybe fold, but 5 handed you have to play. Against ATo and 66, you are 54-58% to win, and tripling up here is at least doubling your EV, if not quite tripling it. Even against ATs and KQs you are at least 35.7% to win it. Only if overpairs are very likely can you fold.

Craig

Michael Davis · #3 11-14-2003, 11:11 PM

There's no way I'd fold here. I don't think folding a big pair when the game gets short in these sit 'n gos is a good way to make $$.

-Mike

CrisBrown · #4 11-15-2003, 12:41 AM

Hi soda,

I agree with the previous posters: unless I'm sure one or both of my opponents is on an overpair, I'm moving in with JJ in this situation. Let them chase me if they want.

So when would I fold? When Manny the Mouse or Ed the Elephant reraises all-in ahead of me. Neither would make that move without AA, KK, QQ, or AK. But I'd need to be positive of my reads to make this fold.

Cris