100k in 100 days - day 28

[soda]

Well, I've had a fairly bad last three days. I've lost $900 in total. I'm really burned out on the shorthanded games. Sure, I keep getting drawn out on lately, but maybe it was always that way and before I had the temerity to play the hand correctly and fold. Now, it seems like I'm calling down with losers too much. A sure sign that I need a change of pace.

So, I've decided to switch games for a little while. Although the shorthanded games on Party are good, I'm going to try something that's different. Something that I'll need to relearn. I'm going with the Tournaments.

I'm a decent tournament player, although my live game skills are much better - so it should be interesting to see if I can hold my own. Over the last two days, I've managed to book $700 to the good in the tournies, despite limited hours and losing at the short games.

I'm actually very excited to get started playing poker again. Before this change was decided, I'd been dreading getting on the tables. Now, I'm looking forward to competing in a new arena. I may even need to wipe the dust off a couple of books and study tournament poker.

So, really, why the change? Well, here's a hand I played today. It may be my worst played hand since day 1.

I had been getting run over, destroyed, killed, thrashed, whatever you prefer to call it for the last hour or so, losing just about every hand when I pick up the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB. 4 limpers to me and I check. Flop comes:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet and get a UTG caller and one LP caller. Turn brings:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG raises, LP drops, I three bet, UTG caps. River:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG raises, I three bet, UTG caps.

UTG has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

DUH.

The point is I know he has the ace high on the turn. But, I was unable to stop myself from capping on the chance that "he might not have it".

I currently stand just $1300 over goal. This is the worst shape I've been in since day 2. I'm a little worried, but the change will do me good. I hope.

soda

[george w of poker]

Sorry to hear about your run of bad luck, and i probobly don't have to tell you that it was bound to happen sometime. it sounds like you just need to take a couple days off which it seems like you can afford to do. are you sure you can keep up the pace by playing tournaments? good luck

[Ulysses]

Tournaments = SNGs?

[soda]

This is the third or fourth bad run I've gone through during my 100 day stint. I'm so much worried about the run of cards as I am my own play. It's lethargic and worn out. And that's what worries me.

I'm not sure if I can keep up the pace by playing in these tournies, but I'm going to find out.

Thanks for the luck, I need it.

soda

[soda]

[ QUOTE ]
Tournaments = SNGs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly, I think. I'd like to mix some big ones in there too.

soda

[Oblivious]

Checkraise that turn.

[J.A.Sucker]

I'd hardly consider losing 900 bucks in 3 days any kind of bad run at the limits that you're playing, especially online, where there is a lot of aggression. If you are playing shorthanded and "had been getting run over, destroyed, killed, thrashed, whatever you prefer to call it for the last hour or so, losing just about every hand" you'd be stuck that much in that hour alone playing 3 simultaneous 5/10 SH games. Just something to ponder.

[soda]

A loss of over $900 in 6000 hands is not a bad run for someone who is averaging over 3.5BB per hundred hands even after the nonbadrun?

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

For the mathematically challenged, the expectation of an average return would have been 3.5*20*60 or $4200. But, I lost 900, so I'm $5100 under expectation for those three days. I hope this can now be considered a bad run. Or bad play. Or what I believe it almost always is - a combination of both.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

soda

[rhwbullhead]

Wow, you really don't understand how this works, do you? I'm sure you're good, but the other poster is right. A $900 loss is nothing. You might not believe it now, but you'll understand it eventually.

[J.A.Sucker]

What's your SD/100 hands in these games? I would expect it to be somewhat higher than a normalized # from B&M, since there is a lot of aggression and you are playing shorthanded. Playing shorthanded limit poker, I would expect a SD of about 20BB/hour playing live, which we'll call 40 hands. Thus, over 100 hands live, I would expect a SD of sqrt (2.5)*20 = 32BB/100 hands. For the sake of arguement, I would say that the increased aggression would make this number something close to 35 BB/100 hands for online (probably closer to 40 in actuality). So, 33% of the time, you can expect to lose 1 SD in an hour at these games. This would be 31.5BB in 100 hands. At 10/20, that's over 600 bucks. Further, you can expect to lose 2 SD's in an hour 2.5% of the time. Thus, in 60 hours, you can expect about to have 2 hours where you will lose over 1200 bucks in each hour. Poker is that swingy, especially aggressive, shorthanded limit poker. This is why your post alarms me.