Long slumps...

[MarkD]

Let me preface this with some background. I've been playing off and on for about 3-4 years. I've had success in the past (which means I have won in the past). I've read and studied a few books including, but not limited to, Lee Jones, HPFAP, TOP, Schoonmaker, Feeney, Briar/Ciaffone, etc. I am an engineer and have understand the mathematics of the game. I have a few poker friends who are without a doubt winning players - they all say I play a winning game. I feel that I play a winning game, and I feel that the games I play in are very beatable (mostly 2-4 / 3-6 online with some 15-30 real life that plays similar to these online games - a little looser maybe). I've never had much problem with steaming, although when I tilt I play slightly looser and passive than usual.

Since February I don't really tilt. Since February I have been break even. Since February I have felt impotent and frustrated. I can still play a tight agressive game but that doesn't make me feel any better about the situation.

Now, I should qualify that previous paragraph with the fact that it reflects how I feel only when I play poker, and usually I don't get that frustrated until after a few consecutive losing sessions. During this same period of time I have felt better and better about my life sans poker.

Now having said all that I'm not even really shure why I"m posting other than the fact that I'm sure my friends are tired of listening to me lament my poker situation and I need to say something to someone. I don't really feel like quitting. I have taken breaks during this period of time and I will probably take more, but I haven't given up on the game totally yet. But, after such a long period of being stagnant I have to question my ability as a player.

I guess I don't really know what I should do. I've read Malmulth's numbers about how long of losing streaks winning players can go through... but who ever really thinks it will happen to them. How can I really know if I am a winning player or if I should give up on the game? It hasn't cost me anything, but it feels like a waste of time to not make any forward progress.

I'm not sure what I'm expecting as a response, but whatever is fine. I just wanted to post this.

[Bokonon]

As someone who is going through a slump of his own -- though definitely shorter than yours -- can you refer me to the essay/numbers that Mason gives re slumps?

[Lebronomania]

Sometimes winning poker is a matter of faith. B/c of the possiblity of long and enduring slumps, its not always obvious whether "winning poker" is actually winning money. I play poker for a living, playing anywhere from 1000 to 1500 hands a day, and even I sometimes ask myself, "Is this game even winnable!?"

You gotta believe that playing poker correctly will pay off in the end. If you lose faith, you'll start playing losing poker, and then bad luck becomes pretty irrelevant. The fact is, your worst day at the tables is still probably ahead of you. Its a sobering thought, and even a scary one. If you cant handle this realization, if you cant deal with the possiblilty that you may lose 100 str8 times with AA, then poker is not the hobby for you. Sometimes, for this very reason, I wonder if its the profession for me.

[PlanoPoker]

If I read it right, you have been break even for ~9 months. That means you aren't beating the game. Sure its possible that you're on a monumentally bad run, but why let that stand in the way of a good excuse to dramatically improve your play?

I found that 2-4 and 3-6 limit online is the grind. Its tough to beat the rake, especially at those limits. That is the training ground for poker players who are careful with their money and are trying to build their bankroll. There is significantly more skill present in PL/NL, which means there is more money to be made and your swings go down. I'm not saying PL/NL is easy.. its harder, but there is a bigger learning curve. Your investment of time is rewarded.

If you don't want to switch to PL/NL, try to find a softer limit game. Good luck.

[squiffy]

It would be helpful if you could include more details in your post. Say month by month profit since Feb. I suspect that you probably didn't keep accurate records before then. Perhaps I am mistaken.

But I find it hard to believe that you have played for 3-4 years and have not encountered a slump before. So I assume you recently started keeping accurate records and that this does not match your self image.

Without more data we cannot even confirm if you really are in a slump. And without an example of a hand it is really hard to say what leaks you may have.

But as another player mentioned 9 months is a long slump. Did you play 900 hands that is 100 per month. Or did you play 9000 hands. Or 90,000 hands in that time. How many BB did you win or lose per hour?

If you are a break even player, so what. That's a good start. Are you absolutely certain you were highly profitable or much more profitable before then? If so at what limits?

I find live games very different than Party games, for many many reasons. I am much much more profitable at Party than live, as far as I can tell. Partly because you get dealt so many hands per hour and can play multiple tables, and get dealt therefore many more playable hands per hour than in a live game.

[Al Schoonmaker]

Mark,
Some time ago I wrote a series of articles on losing streaks for Poker Digest. If you or anyone else would like copies, please email me at alannschoonmaker@cs.com. Don't send me a PM here because I can't attach documents to my reply. If anyone knows how to attach them to a PM reply, please inform me.
Please state whether you have unzipping software. Incidentally, if you don't have it, I recommend downloading a free version at winzip.com.
Regards,
Al

[Warren Whitmore]

Hi Mark:

Try this

Being an engineer you probably have access to minitab. If so, plot your hourly results using the statistical process control feature. If you find any outling points you will be able to attribute special causes to them and either eliminate them in the future if they are bad or take steps to replicate them if they are good.

[MaxPower]

Do you know how many hours you have played since February?

[Cyndie]

there is a way to attach things to posts. I don't know what it is, but will be happy to find out if no one knows.

I see the little message that says you can attach things...but have never tried to do it.

P.S. I would like the articles.

[MarkD]

No... I didn't keep sessional stats. Not sure why but I didn't.

I would estimate it conservatively at 200 hours online playing two tables, which is about 800 hours of casino play. It would probably be much higher than 200 hours though, probably closer to 400 but that is just a guess.