Folding sets before the river

[Nutz&Boltz]

Is it ever correct to fold a set before the river?

Since the only reasonable way you could be drawing dead (1 out) is if someone else has a larger set and putting players on sets is akin to seeing monsters under the bed.

I made a big mistake at a 2-4 game last night and realized I didn't have any general rules on the topic because it happens so rarely.

I'm at a very loose(6-8 callers preflop)and passive table.
I'm in the BB w/pocket jacks. (Suits are not important) 7callers to me and I check.(maybe a little weak?)
flop is 9,10,J rainbow. I have top set.
Small blind bets out I call planning on raising the turn when the bets double. MP1,MP2 and Button call.
Turn is the 8 DOH! now I am 90% sure I am behind to a ST8.
SB bets, now with 6 Big Bets in the pot and 10 outs I call. Pot odds 7-1, my outs are 10 to hit a boat or better which is about 4.6-1 with One card to come.
I call, MP call, Button raises, SB reraises

2 Big Bets to me and my read is the Button and SB will cap with their straights.
I fold not wanting to put that many chips in the pot on a draw(a weak-tight mistake, which had a lot to do with a very cold streak I am on and not the pot odds)

River is (you guessed it)a 9 giving me a folded boat.
This hand made me realize I had read or experiences little about drawing for a boat, I was not prepared. Please share thoughts on this.

[Barry]

This is a very close one and not one that I could figure out in the heat of battle, but with the benefit of time...

When it's 2 bets back to you there are 13 BB in the pot, which gives you 6.5:1 odds to hit your 4.6:1 shot, a clear call. Even if you assume that the MP will fold, the button will cap, and the SB will fold (the most conservative view) you will need to call 3 to win the 15 BB's then in the pot, you have 5:1 pot odds. Any other callers gives you better odds.

So, although it's tough to call here if you're stuck or short stacked, calling is correct, but you already knew that.

Many would advocate raising preflop here, but given all the limpers already in, calling is not awful. Also, given the coordinated nature of the board, I would raise the flop, you don't want to let a hand like KJ draw to his gutshot and you want to charge the open enders to draw. If you get 3-bet, you can assume you're up against a made straight and you can then draw to your boat.

[slavic]

The worse your going to get on the turn call is 6 to 1 or so if they cap it.

A quick way to figure this is.

Pot odds times # of outs and then compare that with number of unknown cards.

In this case 6 * 10 outs = 60 which is more than the 46 cards to come so you call.

This isn't exact but it gives you a quick way to figure these items.

[crockpot]

your odds are not 4.6 to 1. since you know the opponents both have straights, they are actually 3.4 to 1, and you should not be folding this hand.

if you had a set of eights here, you could consider folding it because of the possibility that a higher set or two pair is out and your outs will not be good if you hit them. with a set of jacks, you should not be folding unless this is big-bet poker.

[biggambler]

You have to bet pre-flop and the flop. You should not let them get cards cheap.

[squiffy]

Given the coordinated nature of the board, isn't it better long-term not to raise the flop? Since you are much more likely to be raising it for a better hand or made straight? Isn't this the kind of flop where you slow down with your set?

[biggambler]

<font color="blue"> Pot odds times # of outs and then compare that with number of unknown cards.

</font>
Could you please explain the logic behind this formular?

[J.R.]

Morten's Math Trick

Rules of thumb for calling on the flop: Call with any draw that you would call with on the turn, often for two bets cold or more. Call with gutshots to the nuts if you can be pretty sure you will only have to pay one bet. Also for one bet, a pair with a backdoor flush draw is very worthwhile, and so is a backdoor flush draw with a backdoor straight draw, and similarly for other combinations of weak draws that together become worthwhile. Be reluctant to call with overcards, unless heads-up or the board does not have many draws and you are pretty sure you have the best overcards, like AQ in an unraised pot.

With a little practice, you can be a lot more precise. You can learn to keep track of the big bets going into the pot almost subconsciously, and hence you can know the current pot size at all times. With a little experience, you can estimate the amount of additional action there will be. And your chance of winning is simply represented by your number of outs.

Your effective pot size is how much you can expect to win at the end if you indeed win. It's the current pot size plus expected action. Generally that will be at least one big bet bigger than the current pot size, possibly many more big bets if you expect a lot of action.

Your effective pot odds are the effective pot size divided by the amount you have to call.

You should at least call when your effective outs times one more than the effective pot odds is greater than the number of unseen cards. The number of unseen cards is usually 46 on the turn or 47 on the flop. Recast the effective pot size in units of the number of bets you will need to call.

For example, suppose the board is:

Flop Turn
7s 8d 2d 4d


You have: Tc 9c

Preflop an early ultra tight player limps, a middle player calls, you call late, and both blinds call. On the flop, the small blind bets, the big blind folds, the early player raises, you call, and the small blind folds. On the turn, your remaining opponent bets, then turns over red pocket aces, tells you he knows you are on a straight draw, explains that you don't have odds to call, and begs you to fold since he doesn't want to risk losing. What should you do?

There are 6 big bets in the pot now. Unless he is sure about your hand he will check and call on the river if a nondiamond jack or six comes, so the effective pot size is more like 7 big bets, and your effective pot odds are the same since you are facing only one bet. Your effective outs are exactly 6, assuming you cannot bluff him out on the end.

The answer is "it depends." It depends on your opponent. 6*(7+1)=48, which is greater than 46 (or 44 in this case), so you should call if he will pay you off, but if he will fold if and only if a nondiamond jack or six hits, then you get 6*(6+1)=42, and you should fold.

[J.R.]

Slavic also doesn't factor in any implied odds, but just demonstrates that it is correct given the size of the pot right now. The fact that you will get some river action when you fill up only increases your overlay.

[slavic]

Let's say I have 10 cards of 46 that help me.

So I win 10/46

The pot is offering me $6

The typical way for people to think about this is to either wrote memorize the odds and compare the pot size or to figure odds/precentages and calculate the size of the pot needed to continue. In this case ~$4.60.

What I'm saying (and this is not my original idea) is it's easier to look at your outs and figure the number of cards unknown neccesary in the deck to make this not a call.

So $6 pot times the outs (10) = 60. That means that if their are more than 60 unkown cards I shouldn't call. (In this case since you know you'll get paid off if you hit you can slide the card number down a bit.)

The reason I put this forward is it's often quicker to multiply than divide and when playing a hand you only need a rough feel for if your correct.