NLHE Tournament - Lowering hand requirements as blinds go up?

spoody · #1 10-13-2003, 04:38 PM

OK, First, I realize that the Sklansky and Malmuth hand listings from HEPFAP are not perfect for no limit, and the fact that it is a tourney possibly changes the mix of hands that are playable even more. But I still believe the rankings are reasonable to use as an example.

As your stack gets lower, is there a way to judge what hands you would be willing to play? Lets say the blinds have just gone up and you realize you can make it 3 times around the table (3BB+3SB) and you will be out of chips (lets say there are 2 HUGE stacks at the table and the money slots are still 100+ hands away...seems normal in any tourney where only 10-20% of the players are left). How do you ajdust your requirements for what hands to play when you know you only have 25-30 chances. This does not even take in to the account that if you wait 15 hands and you double up, you are back where you started (maybe worse since the blinds have got to go up soon, but you may be closer to the money). I realize your hand requirements go down as you get real close to that final blind, but what about the first 10 hands of those final 30? If you can double up there, you can begin to play some real poker, otherwise you are just skating by.

I think we have all been there befere, where you have played well, but were not able to ever get over the hump to have a big big stack at the table...just a middle stack the whole time that now is feeling the pressure from the increasing blinds and antes.

So, I dont believe you can give away 1/4 of your money for 54s (group 6) or Kxs (group 7) or even Axs (group 5) but maybe I am wrong. I just wonder if there is a way to use some math and say "I have 30 hands to go so I can go down to group 4...I have 20 hands to go so I can use group 6 and up....etc. Obviously there are tons of other factors like who is behind you and limpers or raisers to your right, but at least there should be some general thoughts on loosening up as you get closer to a forced all-in. (i know the Sklansky Tourney advice of a "better than average" hand for the penultimate hand).

2nd part of the quesion would be when you get that hand that fits your requirement, all-in or not? My personal preference in this scenario is to limp with AA, but I have usually moved all in with almost anything else I found playable. But I could see NOT moving all in, and gambling that I could triple up and accept the lesser odds of playing against multiple players, I guess it depends on whether you want to win or just get in the money.

Thanks
Spoody

Greg (FossilMan) · #2 10-13-2003, 05:08 PM

The key factor is not how many hands you have left, but how likely is it that all remaining players fold to your raise. The next factor is how well your hand will do if called (by the hands with which they will call, be they strong or weak).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

spoody · #3 10-13-2003, 05:30 PM

Respectfully, I dissagree, maybe because I think you did not answer my question. Your factors are all obvious and ongoing in any tourney...any move you make you have to weigh those factors. I am just talking about what your general strategy as you get closer to the felt...To me, if you do not change your strategy at all, you are missing something. Waiting only for any pair, AK and AQ could be a long wait...like more than 30 hands. I would think that every hand you get closer to a forced all in, you have to adjust your starting requirements a little lower.

I do understand what you are saying, I have been tempted to call 4 all inners in a tournament with 65s. I guessed they all had high cards and my low cards might actually be good. There was AK, AQ, AJ and TT, I would have flopped a straight and won easily...but I sat there like an idiot (a tight idiot) and was out at the blinds about 15 hands later.

Thanks,
Scott

spoody · #4 10-13-2003, 05:31 PM

spoody = scott [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Mike Gallo · #5 10-13-2003, 08:10 PM

Spoody,

Fossil man gave you a solid answer. Perhaps you have a difficult time seeing the forest through the trees.

What exact answer would you like to recieve?

Learn what hands play well through a hot/cold simulation.

bugstud · #6 10-13-2003, 10:01 PM

You're being very results oriented here, it's a problem we all have. If this is a party tourney, 4.5 times the BB is often a decent stack later in these tournies. Your table conditions are the main factor i nwhat hands you play. If every keeps folding to the blinds, I'd try all-in steals with a wide range of hands if no one ever calls.

spoody · #7 10-13-2003, 10:22 PM

I appreciate the answer, and maybe there is no answer, but here is what I was thinking...

I know Sklansky has his formula for moving all in - and maybe that would work for this too, I am not familiar enough with the formula to use it....But I was thinking of something like that. Lets say you play 10% of the hands normally and if you were one away from the BB that would put you all in, you would according to Sklansky play a better than average hand, not just any hand. So if that would be 35% of the hands, maybe you could just extend that percentage out to 10 more hands, 20 more, 30 more and move all in on a top 25% hand in the last 10 hands, a top 20% hand in the last 20 hands and the top 15% hands with 20-30 hands to go....thats what I was thinking...overly simplistic, but just a general thought on end of tourney strategy.

Spoody

Schmed · #8 10-14-2003, 09:16 AM

When I am in this situation I look for all or nothing hands. Pairs, Aces, those types of hands. When I get one I push and hope I steal at least one set of blinds so I can ride for free. If I do have a successful steal I tend to go back in to tighty mode and wait for something big..then I push again.

Schmed · #9 10-14-2003, 09:20 AM

everything I have read talks about how you really are better waiting for one of those kinds of hands. Now I'm not saying AK,AQ but if I'm in a mid position with A4s I may push to try and steal the blinds. KQs is another hand, but I tend to wait for somekind of Ace so if I get one caller, (say the guy with the KQs), I really don't have to improve.

Greg (FossilMan) · #10 10-14-2003, 10:26 AM

In another post you mention Sklansky's all-in formula. That's a perfectly acceptable formula, and you can apply it and be better off than the average sucker. However, learning and applying his all-in formula will NOT turn you into a winning player against reasonably good competition. It will just keep you from being exploited by them, and keep you as a small loser.

If you want to become a great player, you need to learn how to read the situation every hand, and figure out the best play. Figuring out the best play usually isn't that tough, but reading the situation correctly is VERY hard. Sorry, but I can't teach anybody how to do it here online. Even in person it is difficult or impossible. I've still got 95% of the job left to go myself. And even if I ever reach some pinnacle, I'll still need to learn each new player I meet, and apply my knowledge to reading them. For the final kicker, even when you know somebody well, they will throw a wrench in the works occasionally and throw you off, so even these people need to be watched carefully to monitor their current mood and style, as opposed to their "typical" style.

Of course this is all generic and therefore in some ways useless advice. But that's poker.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)