Week 6 picks

[Wildbill]

After further review, here are the picks at the lines I actually bet:

Chicago +6 over New Orleans
Covered this one enough, I like the situation and getting points from a team likely not exactly all on the same page.

Oakland-Cleveland under 43.5
Forecast sounds helpful here, windy afternoon expected with potential for lingering showers. I expect some sputtering offenses and some tough passing and kicking conditions. Raiders can't score offensive TDs and the Browns offensive stats are bad, yet a rather high total. I can't figure this number out it seems a good 3 to 4 points too high.

Houston-Tennessee over 39
Another head scratcher for me, both teams have picked it up offensively, but haven't exactly shut anyone down. This one looks to be at a minimum in the mid to high 40s, the Titans might come close to covering this over by themselves. Even more helpful is that both team's do alright defending the run, but have terrible pass defenses so expect both teams to put up a lot of balls in the air which should clearly favor the over. My numbers say the total would be best set at 44 so nice value here.

Didn't bet these games, but was real close:
NE-NYG over, never know with Cocktail Collins who will show up so I will pass, but definitely would lean to the over here. The implied score here using the line is 22-19 and at first glance both should get to at least 21, but I just worry that Cocktail might go into a funk.

Miami, just looks too good at first glance, I mentally figured a 6 or 7 point number here. Then again the Jags have had excellent stats and might be due for another solid effort here finally getting the win last week. Still the Fish clearly look to be a much better team, but when in doubt I prefer not to bet road favorites.

KC, oh so tempting. Pack has been solid on the special teams so hard to pencil Hall in for a big game, but seems like no one can stop him. I think the Chiefs probably are the better team here and should be favored, but coming off the big win last weekend I will pass because I don't know how much they can summon this week after last weeks battle of the AFC titans. And Pack's opening week loss against the Vikes doesn't look bad at all anymore so they have been solid at Lambeau so far.

[PrimeRoll]

WB, I just thought of when you said it's not a good idea to bet on SB champs on weeks 2-5, you don't know how much I wish I would have listened to that advice!

[Ashe]

nice over/unders, hit em both.. had miami too [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]