this week's father picks

[fatherpimp]

my top pick this week is OR St +1.5 over CO St.; yep, you read that right. for those who aren't familiar w/ this type of bet, on internet sites, it's usually listed under fantasy match-ups, i think. im predicting that OR St +1.5 will be more points than Co St's point total.

simply based on avgs, OR St scores 30/game and Cal gives up 25.5 for a avg of 27.75 add 1.5 spread for a total of 29.25; CO St scores 26/game and Fresno gives up 22.4 for an avg of 24.2

apply this avgs to the probable dynamics of this week's matchup for the 2 games: the beavers and cal are both passing teams--enough said; fresno is a more balanced team and thus will slow down the game and quicken up the clock.

this is as simple an analysis as a top pick can get, but it seems sound to me. i think the chance of winning this bet is pretty strong but as we all know, no guarantees in sportsbetting. i hate losing these types of bets. man, im going to be furious if i lose this one. it's like losing AA to AK and ive seen that happen too many times; man, this loss will really get the alcohol flowing through me sat night. kinda paranoid about it already.

my 2nd best pick is the huskies over the mediocre bruins; ive been following the huskies for a couple years and they always maintain a solid level of talent though they can't always execute that into wins. bruins are difficult to figure out right now for me, and i think they'll play erractic throughout the game; the solid progression of the huskies throughout the game leads to a solid victory on the road.

my next two picks are MI -3 and OR St against the cal bears. the bears would have to be superhuman to not fight through a letdown this week.

as for the MI game, i have to stress again, people seem to jump on MI too easily on bets; the line very frequently overvalues MI just like the yankees; i don't know how these people who bet on MI so often continue to have money to sportsbet. ill back this up w/ some substance. MI is 53-70 ATS for the last decade. other relevant facts for the away game coming up against a strong big10 team: MI's away record last 3 years is 3-2, 3-2, 2-3; navarre's record against ranked teams is 7-7. yet, MI is favored by 3 partly b/c people will bet MI no matter what!

im bitching right now only b/c im somewhat bitter (haha); in the past 2 years, i have bet on michigan only 3 times; they are almost always overvalued. this year, i think MI team is stronger than recent years and i have been drooling over them being undervalued finally; but alas twas not to be. people seem to take MI for any reason, so i give up on waiting for MI to be seriously undervalued and jumping all over it.

either way, MI is still a ok bet for this week for reasons that some probably don't even care about b/c they'll bet on the winged helmuts till the cows come home; one, i was at the game last year at the big house, and it was humiliating; MI players always respond well to challenges, and two, i think the loss last week hurts IA emotionally; sometimes losses fire teams up, i think here, it hurts their confidence b/c they are a team that many doubted; they had a weak schedule early this year so the doubts continued even as the wins piled on; now, they lose to the spartans, and it'll be easy for those doubts to start screaming in their ears if they fall behind early this game...w/ receivers injured and confidence sagging, i think it'll be tough for them to comeback against a fired up MI team; if IA won last week 27-13 at spartans, i do not touch this game at all.

btw, someone said that they're betting on utah; i disagree strongly; it's a tough game to call, but i would def pick the ducks over the utes if i had to bet this game though i wouldn't give the 3 pts;

im thinking through a potential upset on another game, but i can't get myself to pull the trigger on it; still thinking it through: southern miss +8 or +240 seems possibly a good upset pick; but wouldn't recommend it just yet.

best of luck to everyone,

jo fatha