AKs 2/4

ThingDo · #1 09-28-2003, 07:57 AM

I have AKs in EP and open raise. Some guy who clearly doesn't respect my raises enough and has been 3 betting me all night long calls 2 cold ( LMP ) folded to button who also calls 2 cold. BB calls

Flop AKx 3 clubs. BB checks I bet LMP raises Button folds BB folds i 3 bet he calls. 2 to the turn.

Turn... Blank club. I bet he calls. I thought this was sketchy but I wasn't sure. Now that he calls my bet should I assume he has a club or that he doesn't have a club? And if he doesn't have a club what could he possibly call me with. AA, KK, AK, a 4 straight? I check the river and he checks behind.

Ed Miller · #2 09-28-2003, 09:11 AM

You should bet the river. You are out of position... so when you check, you let him know that he can bet his club for value. So you lose a bet anyway if your hand is no good. On the other hand, he will check behind with his Ax, and you will not make the bet that you would have had you bet the river.

So you bet the river. If you are in position and he checks to you, it's a closer call about whether you should bet or not (I probably would bet anyway). But when you are out of position, I think you have a clear bet unless your opponent is very likely to bet the river as a bluff.

Talk to Brian about this concept... I explained it to him a week or two ago.

slider77 · #3 09-28-2003, 09:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You should bet the river. You are out of position... so when you check, you let him know that he can bet his club for value. So you lose a bet anyway if your hand is no good. On the other hand, he will check behind with his Ax, and you will not make the bet that you would have had you bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if there is a 50/50 chance he has the flush, betting the river has a zero EV. If ithere is more than a 50% chance he has the flush, it's a negative EV play. Agree?

Here, I would say the guy had just a a pair of aces.

Ed Miller · #4 09-28-2003, 09:43 AM

So if there is a 50/50 chance he has the flush, betting the river has a zero EV. If ithere is more than a 50% chance he has the flush, it's a negative EV play. Agree?

I agree, but this information alone does not help you make the decision to bet or check.

Homer · #5 09-28-2003, 11:32 AM

So if there is a 50/50 chance he has the flush, betting the river has a zero EV

Yeah, but checking the river is -EV, so you should bet.

-- Homer

Nutz&Boltz · #6 09-28-2003, 11:49 AM

Wouldn't this be a classic opportunity to induce a bluff?

Homer · #7 09-28-2003, 12:04 PM

Depends on the opponent, but yes, it could be.

-- Homer

ThingDo · #8 09-28-2003, 04:55 PM

Although I talked with Brian about this I think I'm failing this test. I'm not sure I get it. Can someone please go into more detail as to why the bet on the river is correct. Obviously I'm value betting my hand but I think I'm missing something.

ccwhoelse? · #9 09-28-2003, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but checking the river is -EV, so you should bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe i'm a little confused or more likely that i don't know [censored]. how is checking the river -EV? wouldn't it be zero EV if anything?

Ed Miller · #10 09-28-2003, 05:33 PM

maybe i'm a little confused or more likely that i don't know [censored]. how is checking the river -EV? wouldn't it be zero EV if anything?

If you check and your opponent bets, you will almost always lose money on the river action here. Your opponent will have you beaten more than 50% of the time when he bets, though you are forced to call because of the pot size. So checking and calling is almost certainly -EV here. Betting may be -EV, but may be less -EV because your opponent will call generally call with lots of hands that you beat, but not bet those same hands.