No I can't bet this can I?

[icepoker]

2/4 at party mostly passive and loose

utg calls, I call with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in utg+2, two mps call, cutoff raises, sb folds, bb and the rest calls.
Six to the flop for two bets.

Flop comes 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
bb checks, utg bets, I think couple of secs and since I only have to press one button I call knowing that the co will raise. Anyway everyone calls to the co who raises, bb calls two cold and the rest calls.
Bunch of money and people and I have T high with a fragile draw.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
ok, now we're getting somewhere, actually as far as we'll go. Checked to the co who bets, bb and utg call, I make it two, folded to the co who calls, bb and urg call.
I still have three opponents left whos cards are in the any two range except for maybe the co's.

Ther river 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Checked to me, what do I do?

As usual, all comments appreciated. Results to follow.

[Dynasty]

I definitely bet the river.

[Mike Haven]

can you explain why please, Dynasty? (i'm sure you have on other occasions in the past, but i am and many others are new here and it would help us)

in my own case, i wouldn't bet here

my thinking would be that if i was winning it would be fairly obvious to most that i am likely to have flushed or housed and i wouldn't be called - if they call they probably have a bigger flush but are worried about my house - if they have a 2 they may be worried about my 6 - if they raise, i am probably beaten but i would have to find out if it's a bluff or a lower flush

[icepoker]

This 2/4 at party, people call with amazing hands all the time e.g. the co could have an overpair and he isn't laying that down. There is no reason to believe either player has a 2 or a 6, is there?

[Mike Haven]

no real reason except you said the game was passive and loose - a slow-playing passive three twos is quite likely not to raise when the third diamond hit - a 65 is possible - an A6 is possible - a Jxd is possible

i know that if i bet i would be beaten here from what i saw last night - once i made any bet with anything the others turned into calling stations and beat my AQ with their AKs without giving me any indication whatsoever until i proudly showed my AQ

(see this post for an example of a "good" check in similar circumstances)

[huzitup2]

I'm fairly certain Dynasty's will (or would) be similar.

*

G-d only knows what the blinds have but it's extremely unlikely - given the way the betting has gone so far - that either of them can beat you.

The cutoff is screaming overpair; since he bet out AND called your check-raise on the turn his hand is likely to contain a big diamond, but this is a moot point since the 4th [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] didn't come.

This is NOT an "auto-bet" - I mean, well, I suppose you could run into quads. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

However, the most likely scenario is that you bet, the cut-off kicks his cat :-) then calls, and the blinds likely both fold - although you would prefer they call since IMO neither of them can beat you.

Is it possible someone has you beat (meaning this is not a "sure thing") ?

Sure it's possible.

But this bet will make you alot of money in the long run.

*

If you get DO get check-raised by either of the blinds, call. (You are probably beat but a call is still correct).

If after betting, it comes back to you raised and re-raised, fold.

*

If you are on an exceptionally short bankroll, check; this is a profitable bet, but it's a bet you CAN afford to miss out on. It's NOT the opportunity of a lifetime (but as mentioned it IS profitable).

Best wishes,

- H

[huzitup2]

The SB is already out of the hand.

*

This doesn't change anything; for all intents and purposes it is OK here to view UTG in the same manner as you would a blind.

His hand is (er, probably :-) a little better than random, but he has not played it with any serious aggression.

Also, since he called voluntarily there is even less of a chance that he holds a "2" or a "6".

Uh, I think I'll go back to sleep now :-),

- H

[icepoker]

of course everything is possible. We can clearly put the co on two paints or an overpair. The problem is the bb, the most likely "bad" scenario is that he has a 2, but he would be very likely to raise the turn with 2 (or re-raise on the flop to punish the flush draw but who knows if the guy thinks about that), therefore he's likely to have a 4 or a pocket pair. All that matters given the action if you make a +EV move. imo betting is a +EV move. The only reason for checking is to induce a bluff but are people likely to try to bluff two players? not often therefore bet.

[huzitup2]

-

[Mike Haven]

thank you

i understand and agree with the theoretical mathematics of such a bet in a simulated situation

in real life at the table, i am not so sure that the times you would be called here with a lesser hand would make up for the times you would lose two bets (of course it goes without saying that you will win many times it is checked round if you check or folded round if you bet)

however, if you check-called i can see a large profit because of the overpairs and bluffs betting owing to the fact that your check disguises what is in fact an excellent calling hand in this situation