Big pot! Big mistake?

Ed Miller · #1 09-24-2003, 07:32 AM

10-20 at Muckleshoot. I have the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in MP. Two EP and an MP limper to me. I raise. Button (a conservative player) calls. The big blind calls, as do the EP limpers. The MP player now 3-bets. I cap. All call. 6-handed to the flop for 24 SB.

Flop is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I check. Button checks.

Turn is the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me and I bet. Button raises. BB and first EP fold. Second EP calls and MP folds. I call.

River is the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP checks, I bet, button and MP both call.

gonores · #2 09-24-2003, 08:03 AM

On the flop, what do you think the chances are for a conservative player to bet out into a pre-flop capper, unless he flopped a set? If he is conservative, then he might bet out with something like 77-TT, but if he is willing to do that, I think he would be willing to raise your bet (which would be fantastic for you). If this were a 30-60 or something like that, I think you could make an argument for waiting for the turn for pot manipulation purposes (especially if you could foresee the button raising you on the turn), but even that argument has many weaknesses.

On the turn, what do you put the button on? I've got him narrowed down to almost exclusively AQ. EP appears to have picked up a heart draw. Both these players need charging. I think you lost 2BB on the turn.

Doug

Ed Miller · #3 09-24-2003, 08:32 AM

On the turn, what do you put the button on? I've got him narrowed down to almost exclusively AQ. EP appears to have picked up a heart draw. Both these players need charging. I think you lost 2BB on the turn.

I think you might be on to something.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Lost Wages · #4 09-24-2003, 08:56 AM

OK, I'll stick my neck out and ask the obvious. Why didn't you bet the flop?

Lost Wages

Dingo Dan · #5 09-24-2003, 09:33 AM

Total beginner here so take this with a pinch of salt but I dont think the button could have a two pair or set and then let it check through,isn't this what Slansky says is a mathematical catastrophe letting people get a card for free and outdraw you when they would have folded a bet,and also if they would have called you anyway and then proceed not to outdraw you?
although this is what you have done by not betting.I am also wondering why you checked the flop what am i missing?Would you have checked with TT or JJ?

Ed Miller · #6 09-24-2003, 02:54 PM

Read the section beginning on p.170 of HPFAP entitled "Another Example." You can also skip back a section or two to get some context.

Whether this was an appropriate application of that concept, or whether the concept has merit at all or not is debatable. But for those unfamiliar with the concept, please read that section of HPFAP.

Homer · #7 09-24-2003, 02:57 PM

Everything seems fine except for your lack of a three-bet on the turn. Why no three-bet?

-- Homer

GuyOnTilt · #8 09-24-2003, 03:10 PM

Preflop: Textbook.

Flop: Textbook.

Turn: Not so textbook. You should've 3-bet here and I'm not really sure why you didn't. You can peg the button on AQ here and the EP player either picked up a flush draw or has a medium pocket pair that he's calling all the way with. This is a definitely reraise.

River: Textbook.

One street misplayed left you without 2 big bets that would've otherwise been yours.

GuyOnTilt · #9 09-24-2003, 03:13 PM

No, he wouldn't have checked the flop with JJ or TT. His hand would've been too vulnerable to overcards. With AA or KK though, checking a flop like this from LP can be to your advantage.

Ed Miller · #10 09-24-2003, 03:17 PM

Everything seems fine except for your lack of a three-bet on the turn. Why no three-bet?

Because I'm a freakshow. I knew button had AQ at the time, and I just didn't 3-bet. This may sound very strange to an online player, but I have very little experience 3-betting the turn with a one-pair hand. That is because very few people raise one-pair hands for value in a live game (at least in my games)... so generally they are either bluffing or have you beat. Of course this hand is very different, and I made a big mistake.