Mirage 10-20: Drawing with a gut-shot and an overcard

Dynasty · #1 09-23-2003, 12:32 AM

Here's a hand I mentioned in some Small Stakes thread but never posted. It's from a Mirage 10-20 game which was playing fairly loosely with some aggression.

The hand:

Two EPs and an MP limp. All three of these players are loose losing players. The Cutoff, an aggressive player (both pre-flop and post-flop) who plays reasonably well also limps. The Small Blind completes. I'm in the big blind with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and check my option. 6 players see the flop for one bet each.

The flop is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check. EP1 checks. EP 2 bets. MP folds. The aggessive Cutoff raises. Small Blind folds. I call two bets cold. Both EP players call. Four players see the turn with 7 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. Both EPs check. The Cutoff bets. I call. Both EP folds. Heads-up on the river with 9 big bets in the pot.

The river is: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet.

Bob T. · #2 09-23-2003, 02:00 AM

It seems that your call on the flop is a little thin, probably getting 6-1 on a gutshot, and a suspicious ace, when you are not closing the action.

On the turn, I like your call a little more, you have better odds, and it seems less likely that a raise will be coming from the players left to act.

On the river, you might not see a bet from the hands that you can beat, and you can probably safely fold to a raise. I think that this is a good value bet.

tiltboy · #3 09-23-2003, 02:55 AM

The only call I like is the one on the river.

conform · #4 09-23-2003, 04:02 AM

it's not often i think this -- in fact i can't remember ever thinking this -- but i think you're way off on the flop and turn. i think you're good on the river, likely, but i hate the flop cold call and i hate the turn call.

i'll be happy to hear if and why i'm wrong, but this just doesn't seem like a dynasty hand. i've been gone a week and a half, so i don't know the context of your references to this hand... but i don't like it.

GuyOnTilt · #5 09-23-2003, 04:14 AM

The flop call is close, but the turn call is definitely correct. He has 7 outs and is getting 8:1 on his call, and there is very little chance of a raise behind him.

Jeffage · #6 09-23-2003, 06:58 AM

I personally think the flop coldcall is very bad and a DEFINITE losing play. The ace is not definitely good, and I don't think one overcard with [censored] kicker swings a neg. EV call with a gutshot to a positive play. Bad flop callfor two cold in my opinion....and I don't really think it's that close.

Jeff

Dylan Wade · #7 09-23-2003, 07:02 AM

The raise on the flop is most interesting. I doubt either player limped AQ pre-flop (certainly not Cutoff), but it is possible the EP holds AQo .. that is until they fail to cap Cutoff's raise. (As two pair is unlikely with rags, and we're not going to give agressive Cutoff credit for a small set.)

So if you've figured that AQ is very unlikely you're looking at the same odds for a Open ended straight draw. If AQ is there, you've got a gutshot because the overcard is a dead draw. Unfortunately you haven't seen EP2's action yet so you can't rule it out, which makes things a bit of a gamble because some players wont raise AQo in EP. It's even further a gamble because they could fold, and then you no have nowhere near the pot odds. A bit of a tough situation on the flop, but very interesting!

It is this type of play that makes AK so valuable.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

ResidentParanoid · #8 09-23-2003, 09:39 AM

What would cutoff limp here with? Pocket pair or something like suited ace or suited something?

Flop cold-call is marginal. I guess if you really don't respect the two loosies, you'll make it up if you hit your draws. But with them in there, is your ace worth much? Would you want it heads-up with cutoff if your ace were to hit?

Turn call is fine. Your kicker is no longer in play for the ace.

River bet is obvious.

King_J · #9 09-23-2003, 10:01 AM

If you did I must say I am very confused. I thought you were a strong player. This flop-call have just changed my mind.

IMO, this is an easy fold.

slavic · #10 09-23-2003, 11:29 AM

Dynasty

I keep looking a the flop play and I must admit I don't like it a bit. Callling two cold with 4 clean 3 dirty outs just doesn't seem right. If you looked at your two loose players and they had chips at the ready to call I change my mind to more of it doesn't matter, but since your first to act this is a real loose call.