Please Help! (I think I saw P. Ivey make this move on the WPT)

[BuffaloSoldier]

All-

My friend e-mailed this scenario to me and askmed me to post this question to the experts. Please advise:

Last night I played in a 2-table $33. I came in 5th (the worst position you can finish in) and I would like input on a move I made that is still bothering me this morning. Please post on the website you use, becuase I would really like input from multiple people:

It got down to 5 people. 3 of us had about 5,000 in chips, give or take 500 chips. one guy had about 4,000 in chips, and the leader had about 5,500 in chips. Needless to say, it was anybodys game. As usual, people were usually folding to the big blind (the blinds were up to 300/600). here is the scenario:

I am dealt AQ suited. I am one away from the button, and have 2nd to last call. The chip leader goes all-in pre-flop, and the two people behind us fold. I then folded as well. My thinking was that 4 people get paid, and I should play ultra-conservative until I am "in the money." If the chip leader is going all-in when there are still four people left to decide, he either has a big pair and is trying to draw in suckers, or he has a small pair and is trying to buy the pot.

If he has a big pair, (queens or better) I am a clear underdog. If he has a small pair (jacks or less) it is a coin flip on who wins. My thinking was why risk being out of the money on a 50-50 bet. He also could have had AK which again makes me a big underdog.

It turns out that about 5 minutes later I was forced to go all-in with A4 suited, and lost the hand, and finished in 5th anyway.

Would you have called him and put your chances at being in the money at roughly 50-50? Any suggestions would be appreciated.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ZManODS]

You are basically right by folding (If you are one of the better players at the table). But then again, if you double up you could have an excellent chance for first. Had it been AK's i would say its a call, but your AQ could easily be up against AK. Overall, tough decision.

Also, you left out some critical information like the payout differences between 5th, 4th, 3rd... 1st


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[LDJ]

I think you played it well. If you read other posts around here, most people think AQ is not as good a hand as most people think. Against an all-in bet like that, I agree you would be an underdog.

I am also curious how you were forced to go all-in with A4? did you try to steal and got caught with you hands in the cookie draw?

[BuffaloSoldier]

Stars 2-table $33 payout

18 players

1st- 216
2nd- 162
3rd- 108
4th- 54

[yct]

Since it's bubble time, there's nothing wrong with folding AQs. Plus you still have a lot of chips 5000 compare to the 300/600 blind. Be the one to go all in first, and let the others to make the hard decision to call or not.

[BookOfIcculus]

Can I be the only one to disagree. I say call here. It is five handed, I think at worst you are 50/50 but it is hard for me to say without knowing how tight/loose the final 5 are.

Also how where you forced to go all-in with A4o, I don't understand. You folded AQs signifying that you are playing for 4th, and the other 4 blinded you out? Or did someone smooth call your blind and play better post-flop. I would stronly suggest that you forget whether the fold on this hand was correct. Because it could go either way. But what happend after that, that forced you to go all-in with A4 and miss the money, should be your main concern. There is no way that you should fold that hand and not make 4th!!
If you fold that hand and at least get 4th is good strategy.
If you call that hand and go out 5th or have awesome shot at 1st is a good strategy.
But to fold that hand and still not get 4th is not a good strategy.

[oneeye13]

you really think he would just go all-in with a big pair? i bet he'd want to go up against another hand. my guess is, either you've got him beat, or he has AK TT 99.

[JayCo]

[ QUOTE ]
But to fold that hand and still not get 4th is not a good strategy.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, your strategy should've been to fold that hand and then come in 1st! You sure blew it! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Since you folded AQs, I'll give you enough credit to assume your strategy was not to come in 5th, but to make sure you made the money. I agree with the point that if your goals are to max chance of in the $ and reduce the variance on your bankroll, excellent fold. Ths is because in most low-to-med SNGs with only one more to go to make the $, you will usually see someone either get a big hand cracked or make a mistake and bust out for you without you doing much of the heavy lifting to bust em out. Slightly tighter than avg play pre-flop and conservative post-flop play will usually let you limp into the $.

If you want to max your cash EV and have seen the chip leader make more than his share of all-in attacks on the blinds, I think it's a +EV cash play to try to double up. If you weigh his possible range of hands and decide it's a roughly a coin flip or a little better to win, I'd call. If you win this hand, you lock if 4th, and have about a 40% chance at 1st.

Ignoring the specifics of the payout structure and just focusing on the total... if you fold and all 5 are at equal stack heights, you have about 20% equity in the $540 pool for equity of $108. If you call, you have a ~50% chance of $0, and a 50% chance at roughly 40% equity in the $540 prize pool.

What this means is that if you think the others behind you will fold (very likely without AA, KK, or AK) and you think you're >50-50 favorite, calling is +cash EV.

J

[William]

I think it is correct to fold here. AQ is not a good call hand, it is much better played as an all-in atack hand.

[Bozeman]

40% of chips does not give you 40% equity in the prize pool (For example, in this case 1st is only 40% of the pool. If you had 50% of the chips, you would have equity <= 50%*40%+50%*30%=35%)

So doubling up is not worth near twice the original value of you chips, so don't call unless you are a significant favorite over many of the hands the big stack could have.