15-30 party. frustrated I called and lost. too passive?

[Instinct]

I'm raise utg with AQ hearts. mp calls ( seems average, maybe too loose ) button calls ( I know nothing ), sb calls ( loose aggress )

flop comes Jc 5h 7h

I bet, mp call, button raises, sb calls, I 3 bet, mp folds so 3 of see turn.

turn 4c

I check, button bets, sb folds, I call.

river 7d

I check , button bets. I hesitate then decide to call.

he shows AsKh to take down $402 pot.

Damn I hated calling river ( hoping that there was a sm chance he had hearts too and still bet turn )to see AK take down the pot.

[DocHollyday]

Well I think on the river in this specific situation, the only opportunities are to either raise or fold. If you think about your opponent having nothing, a call is still bad, because you're in the same situation as him (even slightly worse this time). So, if you get supsicious about his last bet, raise him, if you think hey may have something, fold.

[Instinct]

I hated my call too afterwards, my intention when I checked was actually to fold then I changed my mind and called. I didn't really feel up to throwing $60 in there though so I ended up pressing the call button.
In hindsight I'm also wondering if I should have bet out on turn.

[Instinct]

I'm wondering about the check call decision on turn. I'm building the pot by 3 betting flop but then show obvious weakness and give away my hand my check calling turn thereby inducing a bluff on river. In hindsight I wish I had lead out on turn representing overpair, or check raised turn hoping to win it outright as I have alot of outs to flush even if he has a set and maybe 3 or 6 additional outs. I probably would have bet river if I had played more aggressively and taken down the pot. If I have notes on guys raising like this with overcards I would sometimes lead out on turn.

Is my river call that bad? Are the chances much less then say 8% that he's also on a flush draw or has AK? I have taken many large pots down on party calling down with A high but I'd like to hear whether people think this is a fold or raise?

Instinct

[skp]

I'll probably comment on the turn later (gotta run now) but it seems to me that, given how the turn was played, a river checkcall is better than a river checkraise. The river checkraise can accomplish its intended result (i.e. have the other guy fold a better hand or call with a worse hand) only when the button has specifically AK and Instinct couldn't rationally read him for holding that hand. Besides, the river checkraise would look so goofy after his checkcall on the turn that even AK may call the raise.

[lockitup]

You say you didn't have a read on the button, but most reasonable opponents won't cold call with KTh, his best possible heart holding given your AQh (excepting, of course, KJh, which beats you anyway). No other draws seem likely, so I think you have to go into check-call mode on the turn.

Looks to me like he put you on AK and was trying to get you to lay it down.

The river looks like a pretty clear fold to me.

[elysium]

hi instinct
you check-called the turn!! awful. you either bet or check-raise.

[Instinct]

Thats what I wanted to hear actually. I think I clearly should have bet out on the turn and would have only been raised by a set and I would have had lots of outs to my flush anyway.
Most of the time I would have bet here, but I was thinking that the sb would likley have called me down to river anyway if he had anything as I have seen him call down everything. I figured he would have 3 bet flop if he was on a flush draw so his cold call slowed me down. I have no idea what he had to call 3 bets on flop and fold to one bet on turn.

On the debate between a check raise or bet on turn ... having 3 bet the flop am I better off just betting turn here. If I had just cold called flop would a check raise have been better on turn?


Instinct

[M.B.E.]

Funny, I almost always play big-flush-draws-that-miss exactly this way. So I'd have to say you played this well.

The most interesting question is whether to bet out the turn. You described the SB as loose aggressive, so he probably has nothing on the flop, check-calling as he did. The button's most likely hand is jack with a broadway kicker. (He called your preflop raise and raised a jack-high flop but didn't cap when you three-bet.) Of course a set is possible but unlikely; ditto two-pair or a straight. A heart draw is also possible.

That means if you check the turn he'll likely bet and if you bet the turn he'll likely call. He'll raise if he's got two-pair or better, but probably not if he's only got top pair.

In my view the main consideration in deciding whether to bet out the turn is the third player -- the small blind. Do you want him to fold or not? It kind of depends what the button has. If the button has only one pair, you'd prefer that the SB fold, in case he's got A5 or A7 (or AK). But if the button has two-pair or better you need to hit your flush to win, so you'd prefer having the SB's money in the pot. The difference isn't huge because if the SB does have A5, for example, and the button has let's say KJ, then the SB folding only gives you two extra outs. Plus you'd still be losing his $30 from calling a bet on the turn when you do hit your flush.

So my conclusion is this. Assuming the SB will certainly call one bet with A5/A7, you should bet the turn if you think SB will also coldcall two bets, but check the turn if you think SB will fold to a raise by the button.

Another factor is that if you bet the turn it disguises your hand a bit (you're representing QQ/KK/AA, remember) and might let you steal on the river if you miss, but I don't think that should control here.

Generally speaking I think it's close between checking and betting the turn. Checkraising isn't terrible but I usually wouldn't do it unless you've seen this particular player bet the turn and fold to a raise. Most of the players I play against aren't going to fold top pair on the turn just because they get checkraised. (By the way, Instinct, you are one of the players against whom I would make this semibluff-turn-checkraise.)

As for the river, I agree with skp that your play of check-calling is best. Your opponent coldcalled preflop rather than threebetting, so why would you put him on AK? Betting out as a bluff is better than checkraising as a bluff in this situation, but the problem is that he's not going to fold the river with a jack (or better) on the J-7-5-4-7 board. There's a few possible hands he could have that beat you but he might fold to your bet, like A4s, A5s, 54s, 66, 88, or AK, but none of those is particularly likely. And if he does have something like that he might call anyway, but would check if you check, in which case you save a bet by checking. Also -- and most importantly -- there's a good chance he'd check a hand like AJ/KJ/QJ/JT if you check but call if you bet. That's most important because he's so likely to have one of those. So all in all this isn't a place where you can bluff on the river with positive EV, whether by betting out or checkraising.

Now the question is whether to checkcall or checkfold the river. With 12.5 big bets in the pot it's an easy call with your unimproved AQ; there's much more than a 7.5% chance you have him beat.

Wow, this stream-of-consciousness post is way longer than elysium's. Something must be wrong.

[lockitup]

As I was responding, I got it a little switched around in my head... thought the button three-bet the flop.

In light of this enlightenment, I shall revise my advisement.

Bet the turn.