Mirage 20-40: Great blind steal opportunity, good flop, but I'm beaten

[Dynasty]

This hand is from a late Saturday night/early Sunday morning Mirage 20-40 game. The game was loose at times but more aggressive than I usually like. This hand had a strange pre-flop situation I haven't encountered before.

The hand:

Small Blind posts but the Big Blind forgets to post her $20. The cards are dealt and the Big Blind quickly looks at her two cards and mucks. UTG folds. Then, the dealer recognizes the Big Blind mucked without posting. The Big Blind is a bit upset at what she's done but doesn't complain knowing it's her own fault. She posted her $20 blind but she's already out of the hand.

Everybody folds to me two positons of the button where I've got Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], a hand I would only attempt to steal the blinds with if they, as well as the Cutoff and Button, were fairly tight. With the Big Blind out of the hand, I raise. Cutoff folds but the Button calls. The Button is a fairly tight player (ex: folded K9o in the Big Blind to a Cutoff steal raise earlier). Small Blind folds. The flop is seen by myself and the Button.

The flop is: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I'm first to act and bet. The Button raises. If a third player had been in the pot, or if I had position, I would make it 3 bets. But, against this opponent, who won't fold any Ace heads-up, I chose to call.

The turn is: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check. Button bets. I call.

The river is: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I checked.

[M.B.E.]

As to the preflop turn of events, sounds like it was largely the dealer's fault, and only a little bit that of the player. It shows some class that after mucking she posted the $20 without making a stink about it.

As to the play on the river, did you have particular knowledge about this player to expect him to bet the river, or would you have done the same against most anyone? I find that with just one pair, most players won't bet the river if a flush card hits, even from last position. Aside from thinking that you might have made a flush and be planning to checkraise, they think that you could have hit two-pair, and are planning to check-call because you're afraid of a possible flush.

Mathematically, how certain do you have to be that your opponent will bet to make it correct to go for a checkraise? I'm guessing it's slightly more than 50%, because of the slim chance he has K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[Graham]

I don't think checking the river was a good plan here. He's too likely to check behind the scare card.

G

[elysium]

hi dynasty
i think that you can reraise the flop, but it looks ok. his not folding a weak A at that point in the hand isn't an argument against reraising, it's an argument for it. that's my only concern; the thought process on the flop.

i like the turn check, smart. of course with a K high i'm sure you would have raised.

you check-raised the river....hmmmm. well, you'll have to call the reraise.

i think you should bet the river here dynasty. when he raises, you save a bet. your call of his 2 bet with your non-nut hand is better than your call of his 3 bet.

one reason for reraising the flop is to set up the bet, raise call pattern on the turn and river if you hit your flush on the turn, and even if you don't. your call on the flop set up a check, bet, ? pattern on the turn that hurt you on the river. you can't do a sudden reversal after the flush hits on the river given your read. this problem began developing on the flop. so you do the only thing you can, you check and hope he bets his weak ace or two pair. but, you should have seen your holding as being a non-nut on the flop; a non-nut that can improve. on the flop, your so strong that you could hot and cold cap it. now checking on the turn is ok because your sudden reversal will be called on the river. if you check-call the turn, you have him tied to the pot. the way you played it, i think you should have check-raised the turn actually. but he won't fold, and so no....that won't work.

you need to reraise the flop so that if you complete your flush, you can establish a bet, raise, call pattern.

here, you're hither and yon a bit producing an avoidable reinforced river sting; the bee having sucked all the nectar you left on the table when you failed to reraise the flop. the honey jar reraise....maybe aunt emma was right.

[risen]

[ QUOTE ]

here, you're hither and yon a bit producing an avoidable reinforced river sting; the bee having sucked all the nectar you left on the table when you failed to reraise the flop. the honey jar reraise....maybe aunt emma was right.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell happened to the coherent post? Did you drop acid before writing that last paragraph? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Softrock]

Hi Dynasty - I have read the other posts and there are questions about checking the river. You don't say what your thnking was. My thinking is that this play works better against a decent player as the one you describe who is more likely to value bet the river and is less likely to be afraid of the flush card given that you two were headsup. You didn't actually say that you were intending to check-raise however - we have all assumed this. Given that you have the second nut flush, I doubt that you are checking out of fear of the one hand that can beat you??

I'm more interested in your retrospective thoughts on the steal raise BTF. These can be high variance plays - when they're calling you down and they hit a few flops you can begin to wonder if it's +EV. I think it's important to really think about the quality of the blinds, their tendencies, as well as who is left behind you. I generally play pretty tight and a raise from me gets respect. I've generally been successfull with these types of raises in late position, but recently I think I got carried away with the play and have backed off and become more selective.

There is side benefit here. When you do show down a hand there will be thoses at the table that didn't understand your reasons for raising BTF and will believe you are looser than is actually the case.

As to the hand - my guess is it got checked behind you and you wished you'd bet the river.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I see no problem here. If you bet, a worse hand might not call, but a better hand will certainly raise. If you check tho, a worse hand is certainly very likely to bet, in which case you of course call and make a bet without risking a raise. It's not really that likely he had a K high flush draw against your Q high, but if he did have that, he might play it that way, so checking is again fine. If he checks behind, well, that's OK too. I'm fine with your going conservative on the river here. You can't realistically fold tho.

al

[skp]

Dynasty raised preflop. Preflop raisers don't usually make flushes. Button knows this. Dynasty knows that Button knows this.

Dyansty appears to think that the button does have an Ace (although I am not sure why this guy would coldcall preflop with an Ace rather than 3 betting). In any event, if Dynasty's read is accurate, then going for the checkraise is fine because I think that the button will value bet his Ace.

Overall, I would bet the river not because I fear the button checking down an Ace but because I fear that the button may not have an Ace. Also, betting out when I have the flush helps on those occasions when I bet out without a flush.

[Graham]

Al: If you bet, a worse hand might not call, but a better hand will certainly raise. If you check tho, a worse hand is certainly very likely to bet, in which case you of course call and make a bet without risking a raise.

At this point, from the betting, this guy most likely has some kind of made hand and a flush card just arrived after Dynasty showed strength on the flop and check-called the turn.
I'd say it's backward from what you say, Al. If you bet, the worse hand likely will call. If you check, the worse hand is very unlikely to bet, unless it's another flush or a bluff. This opp was described as tight.
(a better hand will of course raise - as you say - since that would have to be the nuts)

[lockitup]

Dynasty described this player as fairly tight, which, to my mind, doesn't necessarily mean "decent." A lot of "fairly tight" players see monsters under the bed and will check behind in this situation. In fact, "fairly tight" might describe someone who doesn't value bet the river enough.

I would bet the river.