Duece Me- A study of a questionable NL call

[tang]

NL HE - Blinds .10c and .20c, each person has about $15 in front of them.
We are 6 Handed, and 30 minutes into the game.

The players:
LP- Weak/Tight with a capital W and T. Has limped into one pot so far and then quickly folded to a pot sized bet on a ragged flop. He's playing all pocket pairs and he has probably mucked hands as good as A-10s.

BB- Me

All fold to LP who raises the table standard .50c making it another .50c for me to call. I look at him and say AK very inquisitively. He looks down. He would not make this raise with a pocket pair less than JJ. I check my hole cards and see 2c3c. I called for two reasons.

1. If the flop comes up all rags and no paint I figure I can win the pot with a pot sized bet if he checks to me;

2. OR if he bets on a ragged flop I can probably win the pot right there with a nice sized raise.

Comments about this call? Does anyone else ever make this play against a weak/tight in NL?

Before the flop comes I say, "Duece me!"
Flop- 4d 5d 6h

I check my straight and he makes a near pot sized bet. I move in and he calls on a diamond draw with AdKd. It doesn't get there and I get to hear about my 2c3c hand for the rest of the night.

Side Note: He tilted for the next 2 hours and bought back in 3 more times. I also have a new favorite hand.

[crockpot]

your "if he checks to me" is inconsistent with the positions you mentioned in the pre-flop discussion. was he in the small blind, or were you acting first on the flop?

anyway, calling a raise with a suited connector is a debated play in NLHE. doyle brunson loves them, saying that if you hit two pair, trips or a straight or flush, you can often bankrupt a player on a big pair or top pair, big kicker. i think he is definitely being very optimistic here. you're much more likely to flop a draw than any complete hand, and even if you hit a hand like trips, what is the guy going to put you on if you raise him big?

many beginning players greatly overrate suited connectors. if you had a hand like 32o here, would you be playing it in this situation? having suited cards in a heads up pot out of position is not that useful. all it might do is entice you to play in a big pot when you're a huge underdog to hit your flush. also, if you were drawing to a flush and hit, it is very obvious to your opponent what has happened when you come out betting.

calling with a suited connector like 76s is debateable, but at any rate, i don't like a call with 32s. you can only make two straights with this hand, and one is not the nuts. if you flop any pair, it will be bottom pair. any flush will be the lowest possible. if you're going to call with this hand, i think you have to call with just about any two cards (with the idea of bluffing him out on the flop), which is not a great idea out of position.

[gavrilo]

I will call this if I know when I hit my hand I will get paid off extremely well. I wouldn't make a habit of doing this all the time though as you might lose grasp of the concept and start calling some stupid cheese often if ya know what I mean. Against this particular opponent, it worked and he went on tilt.

[trillig]

I agree with you, he got a dream flop for 2/3 and it's a really bad starter kit .

If your having no luck with AK even, give it a try sure, but not often. 8)

When my luck is awful, I occasionally come in with a 2/7 to spit on the face of poker sense, hehe *TILT MODE* has been engaged!

-t

[Zag]

with 32s. you can only make two straights with this hand, and one is not the nuts

Given that he could put the player on a group 1 hand with 100% certainty, we can consider any straight that the 23 makes, even on a board of 4567, to be effectively the nuts. There are no group 1 hands containing an 8.

The question is, I think, what is absolute certainty of your opponent's hand worth? Out hero has about 30 to 1 in implied odds, and I think that is pretty close to the cutoff point. At 50 to 1, I think it's an easy call; at 10 to 1, it's an easy fold.

I agree that the fact that they were suited is pretty irrelevent. If you flop a flush, three things might be true: you could be behind; you won't get paid off; or you will be fearing a fourth card of the suit. And since you are out of position, you have to act without knowing.