Which strategy do you prefer?

[Pierre]

Hi!

Here's the situation :

Satellite for the 200$ NL on PokerStars;
41 players left, 31 move on;
You are one of the shortest stack with about 3300;
Blinds are 200-400 with an ante of 25;

You are the BB, so you have 2900 left after posting;

UTG reasonable player with about 10 000 chips raises to 1200;

Everyone folds to you;

Do you go all-in, Or

Do you just call the 800 with the intention of going-all in (with 2100 left) on the flop?

What's your thinking in both cases?

Thanks!

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I think it depends on what cards you have, unless you're fairly sure he'll fold anything but AA or KK to your all-in raise, then it doesn't matter.

[punkass]

You left out some details. What's the time? The weather outside? Are you hungry? Bloated?

Also, it'd help if I knew what cards you had.

[Pierre]

[Copernicus]

since UTG is still there to raise!

I'd go all in unless UTG has a history of check-raising big pairs. There is a good chance he thinks you are on a steal and is re-stealing and will fold, and a good chance that even if he has a hand you are ahead. Get passed this one and he will think twice before calling any raises from your BB.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The problem with calling is what to do if an overcard flops. If you check-fold, now you're in dire straits.

Also, if he raised with medium suited connectors and you call, if he picks up a flush or str8 draw, he's getting proper odds to call your all-in and still be in decent shape if he loses.

My experience is the last 10 take a long time to go out in these things. If you fold here, you have maybe 3 orbits left to either double up or get desperate. The problem is, he has enough chips to call and not be crippled, which is good if he has TT and a tossup if he has AQ (he's getting odds to call with overcards).

So it's raise/fold with call a distant 3rd. I'd have to make the decision based on my gut about how possible it would be to limp into the money if I fold. Average stack here should be about 6,800. Knowing the distribution and how soon you'll hit the 300/600/a50 level figure into this as well.

[Pierre]

UTG first raised to 1200 and i'm in the BB...

[cferejohn]

Given that you have JJ, I'd fold to an UTG raise here.

[allenciox]

No question --- you have to go all in, you are only an underdog to three hands (AA, KK, QQ) and the odds against that occuring to at least one opponent ten-handed is about 8:1. Note that the blinds are 1/7 of your stack, and since you are short-stacked, I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to steal here with any medium pair or AK or AQ (maybe even AJ when he's getting greedy, which you dominate). Your upside is great and the odds are in your favor.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I would agree with this if this were a tournament situation, with the bigger payouts concentrated in the top half dozen or so places. However, since finishing 31st is no different from finishing 1st, the decision becomes much more difficult. In fact, if there were 35 people left instead of 41, I'd say this would be an automatic fold. Unfortunately, this is going to last for at least 3 more orbits, maybe deep into the next level, so specific stack sizes of the other combatants is crucial to the decision.